the Air Vent

Because the world needs another opinion

Archive for September, 2008

Who’s the Mann, a Skepics Sarcastic Rant on AGW Scatology

Posted by Jeff Id on September 29, 2008

A great article from the cultural and scientific center of the universe Pakistan.

The last sentence just hurts to read. Ok, you mean the same pattern I just spent the last two weeks extracting from random data. The same pattern which can be so easily produced from random noise it happens on accident! How flat does that sentence ring now.

I just want to translate that last sentence into “Reality speak”

Now the scientists who studied randomly chosen graphs and produced the original and now defunct hockey stick have done a new study using more randomly chosen graphs from anywhere they could dig them up and using similarly flawed statistical processes produced a shiny new hockey stick.

I like my sentence better.

Out of possibly legal obligations to the stenographer disguised as a reporter who wrote the original article here is the stupid LINK.

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Simple Statistical Evidence Why Hockey Stick Temp Graphs are Bent!!

Posted by Jeff Id on September 29, 2008

This is a continuation of my posts on selective sorting of data and why it absolutely is a false representation of temperature. If this is your first time on this subject start at this link The Flaw in the Math Behind Every Hockey Stick

Paleoclimatology uses a statistical sorting technique to generate hockey stick graphs which demonstrate to the world that our current temperature has a higher upslope than any time in recent history. This is yet another demonstration of how that conclusion is false!! The data used in this post is random, a known temperature signal has been physically added with a + sign to the random data

As promised before but a bit late, I have worked on some red noise examples to explore how variations in signal noise affect the overall weighting of temperature in hockey stick style calibrations.

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Mann 08 Series Weight Per Year

Posted by Jeff Id on September 28, 2008

As many of you are aware I was able to reconstruct Mann 08 by back caclulation tachnique. I used the known output graph for the northern hemisphere as provided by mann and the proxies provided by Mann to determine weighting for each proxy — no easy task. But after many hours of work I came up with this graph.

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Mann 08 Temperature Reconstruction Using Less Than 11% of the Data

Posted by Jeff Id on September 27, 2008

I’m sorry for the delay in posting. In my previous articles, I found out that not only does selecting proxies based on correlation in noisy data create a distortion in temperature scale, the distortion can be calculated!

If you’re like I was and you need to catch up on what is going on here are some links.

Ten Things Everyone Should Know About the Global Warming Hockey Stick

The Flaw in the Math Behind Every Hockey Stick

Temperature Scale Distortion in Hockey Sticks

It became a bit of an obsession to me to prove out this mathematical distortion of temperature scale but I couldn’t do it to any graphs without knowing the weights applied to different proxies in a reconstruciton. Climate Audit will eventually be able to reconstruct Mann08 using the information and software provided generously by Mann. I am not being facetious about the generosity, I say that because Climate Audit was started and fueled by the lack of transparency in this science. In the past almost no information was given out. This is certainly due to the efforts of Steve McI and group at climate audit. Whether you agree with them or not, you have to give credit for an improvement in transparency in this field. Still, in Mann 08 there are many things which have been left out and mixed up. This makes reconstruction of his work and comparison of some of the decisions he made with the statistics extremely difficult to verify.

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Sorry For the Delay!

Posted by Jeff Id on September 26, 2008

I am currently buried in a complex calculation. I don’t mean to delay any new posts but it is taking 100% of my free time. If I succeed it will be worth the wait.

If not, that’s the breaks for me.

Anyway, please be patient. I have a lot of new readers and my goal is to provide unique content.

As you can imagine unique takes a bit more time.

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Temperature Scale Distortion in Hockey Sticks

Posted by Jeff Id on September 24, 2008

Just a short post today. I am tired from working on this for so long. I have been analysing and trying different things so I get a good feel for how the historical data in from what I know, every hockey stick temperature graph ever produced is actually on a different scale from the “CALIBRATION PERIOD”.

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The Flaw in the Math Behind the Hockey Stick

Posted by Jeff Id on September 23, 2008

When I did this post it was just the beginning of what I found out. Thanks to dogooza for the RC link. To see the true fallacy of the Mann08 math in detail go to this more recent post.

Will the Real Hockey Stick Please Stand Up?

On Sept 11 of 08 I finally understood how hockey stick temperature graphs are being produced. At that time I made bold statements on several blogs that you can’t do that because the historic temperatures are on a different scale than local temperatures (last 100 years). They were rightfully ignored since I had no data to back them up. Now it’s different!

If you don’t know about proxy temperature reconstruction, that’s a mouthful go to this link first then come back. Ten Things Everyone Should Know About the Global Warming Hockey Stick

Today, I have put together a clear demonstration of why all of these sorted temperature reconstructions are flawed!

From my previous post How Come So Many Independant Papers Claim Hockey Sticks I made this graph showing random red noise data.

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How Come So Many Independent Papers Claim Hockey Sticks

Posted by Jeff Id on September 22, 2008

Ok, I have wanted to do this post since I figured out what is actually going on with the hockey stick graphs. The argument these days is that there are many papers which have repeatedly generated hockey sticks based on temperature proxies. First let me explain what a temperature proxy is and why these papers claim that we are warmer than the past 2000 years. If you already know this stuff skip to the third paragraph.

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Online Experiment With the Latest Hockey Stick

Posted by Jeff Id on September 20, 2008

Ok, two days ago I published a report on the data called The All Important Blade of the Stick Uses Less Than 5% of the Data This report detailed what I consider powerful evidence that Mann and his group may have intentionally manipulated data in creating this paper.  I don’t say this lightly.

It is very clear that the proxies, which no one is sure represent temperature, were in fact extended using questionable statistics and then correlated to demonstrate that they match measured temperature. The addition of an up slope to 90% of the data was pasted on according to less than 5% of the data.  I am very suspicious that this 5% was chosen specifically because of its up slope in recent times. Think about that only 55 series determined the outcome of the majority of the 1209 series data!!

What really tipped it though was that Mann and crew made graphs like this one below.  I don’t care how good of a statistician you think you are, the PINK extension of this graph is obvious CRAP and has absolutely nothing to do with temperature. A four year old child can pick out that the graph below isn’t quite right!

So, my suspicions are so great now that I am putting my butt on the line here.

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Ian Jolliffe at Tamino

Posted by Jeff Id on September 19, 2008

Back in 2004, Steve McIntyre and Ross McKitrick (MM) attempted to publish a nature paper critical of the particular PCA method used in the latest hockey stick paper MBH04 required by the UN IPCC to continue the aggressive global warming stance they had taken. Although the paper was eventually rejected for publication the one of the two anonymous reviewers made some interesting supportive commentary regarding PCA analysis. Link available below. Referee #1 says specifically that:

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The All Important Blade of the Stick Uses Less Than 5% of the Data

Posted by Jeff Id on September 18, 2008

Many of you saw my graph of the net effect of the extrapolated “projected” data used in Mann 08 in my post titled Mann 08 – Variable Data. What was not clear at the time to me was how this data was created and why.  I think this post clears it up a bit!

The graph below is the last graph from the post, which indicates that a strong positive weighting was added to about 1100 of 1209 series which in reality had no data at these points.  The graph is here.  You can think of it as a summation of the “added in” data divided by the 1083 series that the extrapolation procedure was used on.  This represents all of the data which was never measured but was used in the correlation for the hockey stick.

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The Changing Earth

Posted by Jeff Id on September 17, 2008

I didn’t feel very inspired today until I ran across an article on the violence of earths history. I want to write about that now. For those who read my blog regularly, you know that I feel it is clear that the world governments are the primary drivers behind the global warming rhetoric and science. Some day I will post on how the governments are using the scientists but that is a different subject.

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Mann 08 – Variable Data

Posted by Jeff Id on September 16, 2008

Recently Michael Mann published his latest version of the hockey stick, claiming boldly that now he can reconstruct temperatures back into the last milleneum with high accuracy. Unlike before, Dr Mann published his data and software for everyone to see. Unfortunately, he published an original dataset which he re-published less than a day later. Thanks to climate audit, I have obtained a copy of the original deleted data and have done a comparison from the original to the actual data used below. Keep in mind, all these comparisons are actually between THE SAME DATA!!

The first dataset is a series of 1209 data series captured and archived by ClimateAudit when the data was released.  The second set was 1347 data series published (by accident I assume) on the NOAA server and is at the link ftp://ftp.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/paleo/contributions_by_author/mann2008.

Now that I have some software tools built and I took a short look at what wasn’t used in the latest hockey stick in my previous post. I thought it might be useful to make sure that the original (deleted) data matched the 1209 used proxies. As Steve McIntyre already noticed there are some problems.

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Mann 08 The Missing Data

Posted by Jeff Id on September 15, 2008

On September 5, 08, on the Mann site for the creation of the hockey stick Michael Manns published data used to generate his latest hockey stick paper showed 1357 series. His final paper referenced only 1209 with no mention of why the original series weren’t used. I have obtained a copy of the original data by a link at Climate Audit and decided to plot it here.

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Antarctic Sea Ice Grows as a Result of Global Warming???!

Posted by Jeff Id on September 13, 2008

I’m starting to think Rush Limbaugh’s assertion that global warming is a religion might be on the money.  Check out this article from—-

“The amount of sea ice around Antarctica has grown in recent Septembers in what could be an unusual side-effect of global warming, experts say.

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