Online Experiment With the Latest Hockey Stick
Posted by Jeff Condon on September 20, 2008
Ok, two days ago I published a report on the data called The All Important Blade of the Stick Uses Less Than 5% of the Data This report detailed what I consider powerful evidence that Mann and his group may have intentionally manipulated data in creating this paper. I don’t say this lightly.
It is very clear that the proxies, which no one is sure represent temperature, were in fact extended using questionable statistics and then correlated to demonstrate that they match measured temperature. The addition of an up slope to 90% of the data was pasted on according to less than 5% of the data. I am very suspicious that this 5% was chosen specifically because of its up slope in recent times. Think about that only 55 series determined the outcome of the majority of the 1209 series data!!
What really tipped it though was that Mann and crew made graphs like this one below. I don’t care how good of a statistician you think you are, the PINK extension of this graph is obvious CRAP and has absolutely nothing to do with temperature. A four year old child can pick out that the graph below isn’t quite right!
So, my suspicions are so great now that I am putting my butt on the line here.
There were 148 proxies available to Mann which were discarded for unknown reasons. These were accidentally posted on an NOAA server as original data for this paper. As far as I can tell these series were not discussed in his paper. Of the 148 – 64 had data in the current years which would have been very useful for calculating the pink extension. Why didn’t he like these 64 series?
It is my contention that these series will have a negative slope or more negative slope than the 55 proxies which were used. I have no way of knowing that, but looking at the piles of BS data I have previously noted and considering the pressures on Mann (internal and external) I believe they may have taken the step of intentionally eliminating data which did not support their conclusion!!!
My belief (based only on what I say are suspicious methods) is that the critical end of the latest hockey stick has been created from cherry picked data!
I am going to plot first the 5% which was used to put the end on the 1083 data series and I WILL POST IT FIRST. The critical portion of this 5% will be the last 50 years because this is what was used to insert (INVENT) data at the end of 1083 of the 1209 proxies. These proxies (after modification) will have an up slope at the end 50 years!! I have never seen one plotted by itself let alone an average of all of them.
I will plot the average of the 64 series which were long enough to be used for extending (INVENTING) data and I will lay it on top of the first. It is my contention that the up slope in the last 50 years of the rejected data will be visibly less than the up slope of the used data!!
Some proxies (series) will need to be cut from the 64 series group that Mann rejected, i.e. boreholes and Luterbacher simply because he stated he wouldn’t use any data with temperature or historical information for pink colored proxy extensions either way. — Just following the paper.
PART 3 – What happens if I am wrong.
If I am wrong I will take the time to actually look up and name the whole Mann group here, list all of them by name and apologize for being so suspicious of them that I even ran this online experiment.
Lets do this thang.
Ok, step 1 is complete. I plotted the first graph below.