Famous Hockey Sticks in History
Posted by Jeff Condon on October 15, 2008
I do love hockey, it is by far my favorite sport. Probably half of my Canadian readers will stop reading when I say that I am a huge Red Wings fan.
If you came here looking for a NHL discussion though, I apologize this post is about how the false mathematics behind the most famous hockey stick temperature curves.
This post like many others here is in response to a request. This time instead of odd linear curves I used GISS (ground instrument) temperature with the 1357 M08 proxies before infilling. Which means “as close as I can get right now to the real data.”
This post clearly shows that actual HS data can be made to support any conclusion. Hockey stick graphs are not temperature whatsoever but are in fact representations of the statistical distortion created by mathematical sorting of random or near random data.
This entire post is actual proxy data from M08. I used CPS methods recommended in the latest hockey stick paper and many before it to produce these graphs.
The red line is GISS annual data with an 11 year square filter smoothing the blue represents M08 proxies after the recommended math (CPS) is performed. GISS measured temp is about 130 years long.
What happens to the proxies when I apply CPS to temperature centered at the actual correct dates — a beautiful HS which would make any climatologist proud.
I flipped the Red GISS data upside down. — Oops, negative hockey stick. Same methods, different correlation graph.
Another HS like the first one. But wait, temperatures rose before 1900AD?????
Same as above with GISS temperature flipped
Positive again, this time the temp rise is prior to 1800
Negative again?? Temps dropped before 1800???
Positive temp rise again ending at 1600.
Or was it negative at 1600
How much stronger does the evidence of this faulty math have to be? The methods clearly amplify the trend you are looking for no matter what the trend is.
For an even more extreme demonstration see my older post