the Air Vent

Because the world needs another opinion

Blogging is Great!

Posted by Jeff Id on December 19, 2008

I’ve thoroughly enjoyed this experience so far. What amazing entertainment, brilliant commentators and excellent drama. It was actually the Digital Diatribes of a Random Idiot which got me to start blogging. Joe’s site, with unique comments and truthful analysis encouraged my start.

I started blogging about energy and ice cores in August. I looked at how different forms of alternative energy have so many problems as related to oil, coal, natural gas and nuclear. After a short time Climate Audit posts led me to dig in to Mann 08 where I discovered deeply (and simplistically) flawed statistics.

Let’s look at some of the bigger events which have happened to the Id.

- Discovery that biofuels, wind power and solar are not technologically ready to replace existing energy sources.

- Uncovering multiple flaws in Mann08. A huge adventure for sure, after all this guy created Albert Gore’s hockey stick graph.

- I found that Mann 08 infilled data, pasting on a hockey stick on the end of 90% of the proxies.

The All Important Blade of the Stick Uses Less Than 5% of the Data

- I learned that Mann 08 used a correlation to temperature to sort proxies and throw out the data which didn’t fit his assumptions. Since this time I learned that this has been proven statistically incorrect by many authors.

Simple Statistical Evidence Why Hockey Stick Temp Graphs are Bent!!

Looking back there are some problems with my statements in this post but the math result was completely accurate.

—-

In the meantime, tamino was busy bashing on McIntyre and McKitrick on their criticisms of Michael Mann’s principal components analysis. After much of his own PCA analysis he was making statements like if you don’t believe me just ask Ian Jolliffe. Unfortunately Ian caught wind of it and stepped in, letting Tamino know he didn’t agree with Tamino’s conclusions.

http://tamino.wordpress.com/2008/08/10/open-thread-5-2/#comments

Oops, Open thread five isn’t accessable any more….. neither are 6,7,or 8. All the comments from Ian Jolliffe calling out tamino are gone!

Well Dr Jolliffe a world renown expert in principal components analysis called him out stating clearly that Mann’s decentered PCA analysis made no mathematical sense. Summing up Michael Mann’s and Al Gore’s hockey stick with this statement —

“What are you optimising? A peculiar mixture of means and variances?”

Now the record has been deleted from history. Except for the Air Vent. I wish I would have kept more of it. This is where tamino and I had our first falling out.

Global Warming Takes a Shot in the Globes

Ian Jolliffe at Tamino

After reading the comments of the referees of the McIntyre McKitrick rebuttal I had asked Ian, on the open thread if he was the referee. Tamino compared it to asking a priest about confession- An extreme lack of understanding of the religious and my first indication of his extreme liberalism. After some consideration to my requests, Ian Admitted he was in fact the reviewer Ref 1 in part 1 and Ref 2 in #2 link to referee comments is below and is quite interesting considering he was reviewing the HS rebuttal. You also would see the similarity of comments if you could see the taimino links.

http://www.climateaudit.org/correspondence/nature.referee.reports.htm

Now all links and comments related to this unique event in global warming have been deleted, gone except for the Air Vent – I believe this is the only record on the internet of an extraordinary event in global warming science. After all this was the world renown statictician and peer reviewer for nature refuting the mathematics of the hockey stick is no small event.

Tamino- prior to deletion of these unique and historic posts admitted that he was convinced of the error in Mann 08. To me (before the deletion) it was an indication of good character on his part.

—-

After that I had some more fun with the hockey stick math and data. I was quite irritated with the attitude of the AGW guys. I was nervous about this post but was so suspicious that I did it anyway. This remains my most popular post to date with more than 5000 views.

Online Experiment With the Latest Hockey Stick

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The best work on the air vent came afterword though in much less popular form but more devistating to hockey stick math. Each post has substantial results which completely invalidate Mann 08.

Simple Statistical Evidence Why Hockey Stick Temp Graphs are Bent!!

MXD Tree Removal Service (Choppin Wood off A Hockey Stick)

The last is the best but the others lay the groundwork.

Id Goes Mythbuster on Hockey Sticks- CPS

After that I dug into how bad the math in the hockey stick really was using MANN 08’s OWN DATA!!!!!!

If you haven’t read it, you won’t believe how bad it is.

Will the Real Hockey Stick Please Stand Up?

—-

I brought these “details” up on the now deleted threads at tamino and on topic but older threads at RC and guess what. They disappeared.

Blocked From Real Climate and Tamino

I wasn’t allowed to discuss or rebut these issues on RC or even on tamino’s blog even though I was being blasted for them by his posters. To this day they think I wasn’t responsive.

My comments were highly respectful and had none of the tone this paper so richly deserves, but there will be no discussion of difficult questions on these sites.

——

Well the truth is I’m Irish, so I did what was expected, (no not drinking) I got pissed.

Tamino’s Folly – Temperatures did Drop

Tamino was bashing on Bjorn Lomborg and anyone who says (correctly) temps have dropped. Well temps did and he had mixed up the difference between climate signal and instrument noise so I posted this one above.

It turned out that Anthony Watt’s wanted to use the post and he did. Twenty thousand-ish views later Tamino had no answer, only that my post was rubbish. But he weren’t happy.

Still pissed I made a bunch of other trend posts to demonstrate the simplicity of his ARMA arguments he made. Arguments which spin heads of people who don’t enjoy math.

Although several posts were made here on this topic, the only other post which I find really interesting is this one.

Don’t Get Fooled, Again…Again.

In this post I pointed out that if you don’t use an unreasonable linear assumption (as tamino did) you get much different results for trend analysis. Beating up a bit on his posts again.

Well, I dissapeared to china for a while and the US elected obama. After returning I got interested in energy solutions and some interesting calcs based on Climate audit’s CPS reconstruction. In the meantime, tamino had a huge celebration of how socialistic policies would save us all on his blog. You guessed it, I got pissed again.

Tamino’s Imagination

So now he’s really pissed. He waited for his moment and when my post on how total global ice wasn’t melting came out on Watts Up. Tamino noticed right away and posted. He was right, I believe, I corrected my post admitted my error and was allowed to make some comment on his open thread.

—-

Edited:

The open threads are gone at Tamino, he has written wordpress to find a solution.

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5 Responses to “Blogging is Great!”

  1. mikep said

    There is still some discussion of Joliffe and Tamino at Climate Audit. See

    http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=3601#comment-316267

  2. Layman Lurker said

    Your enthusiasm and passion for blogging comes through in all of your posts Jeff. Always a dose of humility and never arrogant. It is part of what brings in your readers. That and the quality of your work and insights. Much more in the future I’m sure as there is no shortage of stuff to examine. Thanks for all of the work.

  3. AEGeneral said

    The world needed another opinion.

  4. Søren Jensen said

    The open threads are back on Taminos blow (which in my opinion is an outstanding blog).

    Concerning the global ice I agree with Tamino, and you after all?

  5. Jeff Id said

    #4 Not sure if you’re asking a question. Tamino was right about the step in the data, he was wrong about me not reading carefully enough. The NSIDC changed their metadata page after I pointed out several errors in documentation. Since that time I’ve been forced to work with the gridded data directly – very big datasets.

    Here are the plots of sea ice from gridded data.
    http://noconsensus.wordpress.com/2009/12/09/sea-ice-copenhagen-update/

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