the Air Vent

Because the world needs another opinion

Here Comes the Snow

Posted by Jeff Id on December 21, 2008

Yeah, you can tell from the title I live on the topside of the world. A bit egocentric for sure but the winter is setting in here and it’s looking cold. Anthony Watts did a post on PDO (Pacific Decadal Oscillation) which has recently shifted colder. A lesser known form of la nina the PDO is yet another regular oscillation in the weather system. One which doesn’t get the press it deserves simply due to its longer timescale.

pdo

Click on the picture to link to watts up.

The blue wedge region surrounded by the green is apparently the typical signature of the PDO cold cycle. What didn’t get enough attention IMO is the trend. By the trend we should have been expecting this event for some time. Fortunately for us, digital diatribes (link on right) kept up with the trend and laid it out several days before the main stream media and Watts Up picked it up. Take a close look at this graph.

raw-pdo

The dates are hard to read but there are clear cycles involved here. Many statisticians hate smoothing but in the case of viewing data smoothing is an important tool.

10-yr-pdo

I don’t know the filter type Joe at Digital Diatribes used but it doesn’t really matter. The trend is pretty clear for certain. We are heading into a low pacific temperature cycle.

Bob Tisdale pointed out on his post at Watts up an interesting link which shows what is happening beneath the ocean surface, at the equator.

pdo-cold-water-pushing-up

If you click on the graph it will lead to an animation of the cold water pushing upward to the surface. What impresses me is the comparison of the timesales of the second graph to the GISS temp curve.

giss-full-annual

You can see the curve peaks up in the 1940 timeframe, dropping in 1060 and again in the 1980 timeframe. Those who are familiar with the GISS temp curve know that the magnitude of the curve and the upslope are not entirely reliable due to surface station quality and some very strong correction factors. I just find it interesting that the peaks and valleys align visually so well. I bet those of us in the north are gonna have a darn cold winter.

No sunspots, cold pacific and dropping temps.

5 Responses to “Here Comes the Snow”

  1. DeWitt Payne said

    I think the hate is not for smoothing per se, but for performing statistical tests on smoothed rather than raw data. Smoothing increases autocorrelation. Autocorrelation reduces degrees of freedom which reduces the power of a statistical test. Unfortunately, entirely too many people perform tests on smoothed data using the number of smoothed data points as the degrees of freedom. Bad practice.

  2. Chris H said

    The Equatorial Temperature link has moved, and can now be found here:

    http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_update/wkxzteq.shtml

  3. Jeff Id said

    Thanks Chris, I updated the link.

  4. hernadi-key said

    Snow in Vegas??

    I’m so happy that most of the world has listened to him because we now see the end of global warming. All of Al Gore’s hard work has paid off. Why, things have gotten so good that global warming has completely reversed itself and it is now snowing in Las Vegas.

    And just so you don’t think it is only Sin City that has been wonderfully blessed by Al Gore’s pious efforts, it has snowed in Houston, New Orleans, and Mississippi. (OK, technically it was only sleet in Mississippi).

    The world has been told for the last few years that we are all going to be drowning under the antarctic ice melt, but this year is the coldest year in the last decade. Of course a look at the graph shows a scary comparison between the last 2 decades and the 1800’s. Well, there was this little thing called the “little ice age” that ended in the 1800’s, which caused lower than average temperatures.

    But there is even more urgent news. Al Gore needs to save the Universe, not just our measly little planet.

    Recent reports show that Mars is experiencing global warming. The polar ice caps on Mars have been retreating. A treasure like Al Gore is just too valuable for us to keep all to ourselves, we need to immediately launch him on a rocket to Mars to save that planet. Do you think those little rovers that have been running around Mars were made from SUV parts? Maybe by launching industrial products to the surface of Mars, we have inadvertently caused the whole planet to go into a tailspin.

    But wait, the problem is not just limited to Earth and Mars, we need Al Gore on Jupiter and Pluto. Those planets have also been seeing a warming period. Please, oh please, is there some way to clone Al Gore? We need Al to wade into the liquid nitrogen pools on Neptune’s moon, Triton.

    Or, perhaps a better idea would be to realize that all of this talk of global warming is really just hogwash and that global warming is really quite more attributable to solar activity and cycles than it is about carbon dioxide in the atmosphere.

    A recent article that was widely spread by the Associated Press exclaimed that Barack Obama had precious little time to save the planet. Well, as you guessed, it was all just hysteria.

    More than ever, we need to make sure that decisions are based on fact and science, not just feel good hysteria promoted by a washed up politician like Al Gore. The Obama cabinet that will have the most influence on energy and environmental policy is a who’s who for the global warming movement. The last thing that we need is to send the economy further into a tailspin by throwing billions and billions of dollars to try and save a planet that does not need saving or forcing the American automobile companies to start producing little green cars that so far, few have wanted to buy.

    UPDATE:I knew that our Savior Al Gore would not let his dear friends in Hollywood down and only help Siegfried and Roy in Las Vegas. It is now snowing in Malibu. Do they make a parka for “Malibu Barbie”? All hail our savior Al Gore!!! Maybe they will do a movie on Al’s accomplishments. I’m sure Brad Pitt would be willing to play the lead role. Could they convince Angelina Jolie to play Tipper?

    [snip] –
    REPLY: Your link contains a virus again. If this is an accident fix it and let me know and you will be allowed to post. Please be careful when clicking on his links, since I have warned him before I’m pretty sure this is being done on purpose.

    He also posted on Watts Up at one point.

    [unsnip] I received an email which showed an attempt to fix the problem. I still have removed the links.

  5. page48 said

    I live in the Souteastern United States. This area has been cooling since about 1935. This proves nothing in terms of AGW, but I’m wondering if those of us here can work out some angle to avoid the coming AGW taxes. Any suggestions?

    Before anybody jumps on me, this comment is meant to be amusing.

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