the Air Vent

Because the world needs another opinion

The Trouble With the Consensus

Posted by Jeff Id on February 22, 2009

Sometimes these AGW  extremists really do themselves a disservice.  The know nothing news reporters who pretend to have opinions on both sides simply end up looking like fools.  The AGW guys control the media for all intents and purposes so that side of the argument get’s most of the BS.  Then there’s the time when they go head to head.

Here’s an article by some know nothing guy with what he believes is superior knowledge to a different know nothing talking head.  The rubbish that comes out is similar in noise level to a tree ring proxy.

Letter: Will erred about global warming

George Will’s Feb. 15 syndicated column on global warming seems to rest on a strange logic: Because a past prediction didn’t come true, therefore no prediction will ever be true.

But Will also makes some specific assertions that he claims are backed by climate authorities.

First, he states that the University of Illinois’ Arctic Climate Research Center has concluded that “global sea ice levels now equal those of 1979.”

But the ACRC immediately posted this reply: “We do not know where George Will is getting his information, but our data shows that … global sea ice levels are 1.34 million sq. km less in February 2009 than in February 1979. This decrease in sea ice area is roughly equal to the area of Texas, California, and Oklahoma combined.” (http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/).

Well Cryosphere may be a good source, but if we trust our scources Mann08 ‘s hockey stick would still be useful.  I took the time a while ago to download the data in gridded format from the NSIDC, applied a consistent mask and plotted the trends.

nasa-team-arctic-ice-jan-2009Global sea ice levels plotted for the arctic and antarctic look like this.

30-yr-ice-area-global1

You can see it clearly hooked upward in the past two years.  Now indeed if I pick just the month of Jan 79 to Jan 09 there is an over 1 million Km^2 difference, however if we take the average of 1979 as compared to the average 0f 2008  the total ice loss is only 513,000 km^2.  Barely a half million,  since my Jan 79 to Jan 09 results match Cryosphere there is no disagreement in method.  I wonder why Cryosphere didn’t report the difference as an annual average but decided to pick February??.

Well next George Will is quoted as making this statement:

Will also claims that the World Meteorological Organization has said that “there has been no recorded global warming for more than a decade.”

Sharp bloggers caught the fact that Will was referring to a BBC story from last April that was later corrected.

What the WMO actually says is, “The long-term upward trend of global warming, mostly driven by greenhouse gas emissions, is continuing. … The decade from 1998 to 2007 has been the warmest on record … .” (www.wmo.int/pages/mediacentre/infonotes/info_44_en.html.)

The truth of course is that the short term trend is flattened as compared to before.

most-recent-flat-temp-trend-rss-diatribes1

Apparently I’m a not sharp blogger.  So our good reporter friend Doug Daigle program coordinator seems to feel qualified to make an opinion on this too.  Apparently I’m a not sharp blogger.

What the WMO actually says is, “The long-term upward trend of global warming, mostly driven by greenhouse gas emissions, is continuing. … The decade from 1998 to 2007 has been the warmest on record … .” (www.wmo.int/pages/mediacentre/infonotes/info_44_en.html.)

Ok Douggie, how is it that the stupid line is flat?  Only an over the top warmer can make the claim warming is continuing, just like an over the top climate naturalist would claim it has stopped.  There’s lots of middle ground in there to which I say, you just don’t know. You want to but you dont!

The data is the data folks, it will do what it wants.  Even extreme manipulation will only result in eventual correction, it can’t be stopped because people will see through it.  And know nothing people like Doug, who run the majority of the world media screaming at the tops of their lungs that the sky is falling will just look worse and worse.  They do a disservice to the discussion I’ll end this one with Douggie’s own words.  I’ll bold ‘em just to make the point.

Like many pundits, Will’s belief in his own omniscience leads him to assume instant expertise on any topic. It also results in his repeatedly misleading the public on important issues such as global warming.

4 Responses to “The Trouble With the Consensus”

  1. Layman Lurker said

    “I wonder why Cryosphere didn’t report the difference as an annual average but decided to pick February??.

    Pure alarmism. Not only is it cherry picking, but cherry picking the month where faulty sensor data left a pile of arctic ice unaccounted for.

  2. BarryW said

    The decade from 1998 to 2007 has been the warmest on record

    I’m sure the 1. picked either Hadley or GISS and 2. the start and end points carefully (i.e. do the trend for 1998 to 2007 on RSS).

    Why do some years have two entries on your graph and some only one? Ex: 1999, 2002. 2006.

  3. Jeff Id said

    The graph is courtesy of Digital Diatribes good site – link on the right, the axes are an artifact of excel.

  4. The Diatribe Guy said

    Thanks, Jeff. It’s one of those little things I’ve intended to correct and just haven’t gotten around to. My spreadsheet is set up with years and months in different columns, and the x-axis grabs the year. I should concatenate the columns to pull a less confusing chart. But then I’d have to correct the gazillion charts I have in the spreadsheets. One of these days…

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