the Air Vent

Because the world needs another opinion

Archive for April, 2009

Code for Antarctic RegEM Post

Posted by Jeff Condon on April 4, 2009

This is the working portion of the code I used. I linked to this page from the article. What’s Wrong with RegEM

The code is exactly as it was used with no cleanup whatsoever so there could be some extra stuff in it.

m=t(satraw_anom)
svd0=svd(m)
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What’s Wrong with RegEM

Posted by Jeff Condon on April 4, 2009

I have spent the morning working with higher order RegEM on the actual satellite data. This analysis used Steig’s AVHRR data. I performed singular value decomposition to calculate 20 PC’s which were then used in RegEM. I placed this data in a matrix alongside the 42 surface stations anomalies used in Steig09 and ran RegEM with regpar set to 10. Regpar=10 is about as high as RegEM will go with this data and still converge. The point of the higher order RegEM is to achieve a more natural distance vs correlation plot. We’ve been over that already at this post.

Don’t Eat the Fish

Let’s start with the final trend. Steig09 reports the following trend:

The continent-wide trend is 0.126 +/- 0.07 Deg C perdecade.

We know from a number of previous works that this trend is the result of spreading individual station trends over thousands of kilometers of RegEM grid. By using higher order PC’s we can reduce the artificial spreading improving the location of the information presented by specific stations. At least that’s the theory, here’s the trend I got with 20 PC’s and a regpar of 10.

sat-recon-10pc-trend-antarctic

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Pelosi-inator.

Posted by Jeff Condon on April 2, 2009

My absolute least favorite politician on earth. I prefer Hugo Chaves or Castro to this blatantly power hungry nightmare. Well she has the right job and is fully intending to force carbon taxes on us before the end of the year.

Pelosi.jpg Nancy Pelosi image by LiberalNC

Pelosi vows global warming bill by 2010

Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) has set her sights on passing a global warming bill by the end of the year, pushing past strong misgivings from moderate Democrats in the House and Senate.

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To Cap and to Trade – Contact your local idiot

Posted by Jeff Condon on April 2, 2009

I don’t care which side of the global warming issue you fall on, cap and trade is nothing but a tax. It has no effect and a Republican senator got it right. I just didn’t believe it when I read it first, and it now looks like I was right.

From Jae and prometheus, proof that there is still some small sanity in congress.

Prometheus.

From the prometheus blog link above

The ability of Congressional legislation on cap and trade to result in actual emissions reductions was dealt a serious blow yesterday. An Amendment was introduced by Senator John Thune (R-SD) on the Budget Resolution and its text is as follows:

To amend the deficit-neutral reserve fund for climate change legislation to require that such legislation does not increase electricity or gasoline prices.

Well I got pretty excited until I found this amendment to the amendment. Right from Barbera Boxer, apparently this freed up some democrat votes.

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Ten Replies to Gavin – Advocacy vs Science

Posted by Jeff Condon on April 2, 2009

Updated 4-2-09 see below.

This is a plagiarized and linked copy of a post by Gavin Schmidt over at real climate where he deems to lecture about Advocacy and Science. Of course the team has likewise deemed me unqualified, too slow, and unable to comment on the RC threads. Although I’ve never been impolite or off topic I simply have asked tough non-leading questions like-

How can you assume you’re measuring temperature in tree rings simply by correlation? This doesn’t seem reasonable. Please explain.

Well this latest lecture by lord Gavin got me all wound up again.

Advocacy vs. Science

Filed under:

— gavin @ 6:01 PM

The advocate will pick up any piece of apparently useful data and without doing any analysis, decide that their pet theory perfectly explains any anomaly without consideration of any alternative explanations. Their conclusion is always that their original theory is correct.

The scientist will look at all possibilities and revise their thinking based on a thorough assessment of all issues – data quality, model quality and appropriateness of the the comparison. Their conclusion follows from the analysis whatever it points to.

Which one is which?

My response,

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The Lawman Cometh

Posted by Jeff Condon on April 1, 2009

blindfaith

From the Associated press, reproduced in part here, its the best summary I found on the subject. Apparently the obvious genius Henry A. Waxman of California was put in charge of this mess.

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