the Air Vent

Because the world needs another opinion

Ship the Water Wings

Posted by Jeff Id on July 22, 2009

I hope they’re shipping the polar bear water wings now.  This doesn’t look like it’s going to be a high extent summer.  Ice extent seems to be tracking the 2008 level reasonably well, but everything depends on the strength of the current weather pattern -not temperature.

AMSRE_Sea_Ice_Extent[1]It has a similar melt pattern to 2007 and 2008 on the video, pushing inward from the bearing strait (top left).  This was a pattern I noticed from the plots of greatest ice melt and have since read some of the pro’s making comments about the change in water currents.  Ice melt has more to do with water flow rate than slight warming of air or water temperature.  Current changes can bring a substantial jump in warm water delivery, but the melt rate of ice is non-linear with flow.  Combine that with the huge energy content of water in comparison to air and you can get substantial melt variance over time through changes in current.

N_daily_extent_hires[1]

In the past two years, the melting at this time pushed inward rapidly from the top left down toward the north pole.  I don’t have the gut’s of the meteorologists so my prediciton is less risky—  There will be many headlines!

5 Responses to “Ship the Water Wings”

  1. Fluffy Clouds (Tim L) said

    All true
    Tx Jeff

  2. With the DMI widget on WUWT?, http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/plots/meanTarchive/meanT_1978.png
    Any melting isn’t to do with any excessive degree of warmth! There has been a jump of a few degrees, taking thing to just above 273.15K over the last month or so, now tracking a fraction below the 1958-2002 avarage.
    Doubtless, the lowest limit reached will again be grabbed as evidence of AGW by its devotees.

  3. Ralph B said

    Now I am no scientist but from my understanding when water freezes it releases it’s latent heat to the atmosphere, which in the artic will be radiated out to space. If I am wrong in this please correct me. Anyway…warm waters entering a low ice Artic Ocean will lose a significant amount of energy. If the Artic Ocean kept it’s ice that would act as a blanket and keep the heat in. Ice release from the Artic probably has an insignificant affect on cooling the oceans, but it sure as heck doesn’t warm them.

  4. BarryW said

    Jeff,

    FYI, I wrote a set of R functions to download and process University of Bremen ice files if you’re interested. It was something DeWitt Payne was interested in. Download this link if you are. The file contains some documentation on how to use them. They give you extent and area on a daily basis.

    Barry

  5. Have you ever considered adding more videos to your blog posts to keep the readers more entertained? I mean I just read through the entire article of yours and it was quite good but since I’m more of a visual learner,I found that to be more helpful well let me know how it turns out. Keep up the great works guys I’ve added you guys to my blogroll. This is a great article thanks for sharing this informative information.. I will visit your blog regularly for some latest post.

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