The Real BS09

Today I received another form letter from Deborah Halvorson, my non-representative in Congress.  I promised her that I would call attention to her shenanigans if she voted for the criminally corrupt cap and trade scam which has been in the works between Obama and his Soros funded friends since well before he was even an IL senator.  If you don’t believe that statement spend some time researching the network of charity organizations and board members which funded the Chicago carbon exchange.  They are all interrelated with funding and directives coming from a very few sources.

Here’s the wonderful letter I received, it said don’t reply directly to it as she won’t receive it.  So again, it’s wonderful to have a blog full of people who aren’t dumb enough to fall for this BS.

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Thank you for contacting me with your concerns regarding H.R. 2454, The American Clean Energy and Security Act of 2009, also known as “cap and trade” legislation, and its effects on business and manufacturing. I listened to many constituents on both sides of the issue as I carefully considered this complex legislation. - There you go, not even one paragraph in and we see the first false statement.  We all know the legislation was voted on before anyone could have read it.

H.R. 2454 is expected to bring $6.6 billion in investments to Illinois’ clean energy industry at a time when economic growth in the state is sorely needed. These investments will create 70,000 jobs in Illinois according to a study conducted by the University of Massachusetts. I’m sure new jobs will be created, of course adding cost to materials and services in order to create them can only destroy far more jobs elsewhere.  Economic load does not create it destroys. Small businesses also stand to benefit from this legislation, as 80 percent of renewable energy producers are small businesses.  Another false statement. My own company stands to loose substantial competitive edge in the world due to higher price for materials and services across the board. H.R. 2454 puts Illinois in a position to grow new businesses and create high-paying jobs.  Economic load does not create jobs. If it costs twice as much to produce corn, will more corn be sold?

Penguin Summer

Since the discussion has turned into penguins gone wild.  Here’s a HOT birdie.

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Nobody’s Perfect

Thanks to Dave for pointing this out.  Blogland has been active the last couple of days.  Below is an unusually humble reply by Gavin Schmidt at Lucia’s blackboard written In response to Dr. Scafettas post on Dr. Peilke’s blog which criticized an obvious mistake in their paper.  It’s funny because he implies that Dr. Scafetta won’t release the code, I wonder if he asked.  Either way RC’s proprietor showed a bit of class.

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Gavin realclimate.org (Comment#17440) August 6th, 2009 at 2:34 pm Nice to see that so many people are interested in our paper!

I’ll make a few points here since the discussion seems a little more focused than in other venues….

First off, B&S09 clearly stated that we had not been able to fully emulate Scafetta and West’s methodology and so statements that we did something different to them were to be expected. The issue with the periodic vs. reflection boundary conditions in the wavelet decomposition does make a difference – but what they used was never stated in any of their papers (look it up!). The amplitude issue is also valid, but actually has no implication for the calculation since it is the ratio of two amplitudes that goes into the empirical model that S&W use. The factor of 2 cancels out.

A Letter from Dr. McCulloch to Nature

Hu’s not too happy that his work was used without credit.  I imagine blatant plagiarism is new to him as well.  He’s actually requested a complete retraction of the Corrigendum

Here’s the letter posted on CA’s thread:

=============================================

Significance?

UPDATED BELOW:

An interesting development in the Antarctic. It appears Dr. Hu McCulloch who had such difficulty getting even a comment through moderation at RC was correct when he wrote this post for Climate Audit.

Steig 2009′s Non-Correction for Serial Correlation

Hu Wrote:

Steig et al. report a 95% CI of ± 0.07 °C/decade for this trend coefficient. Assuming a t critical value of approximately 2, this means that they are estimating the se to be about 0.035. Using the above data, the OLS standard error (“seOLS”) is 0.0330. Twice this value is within rounding error of 0.07. It indicates a very high level of significance (p = .0004).

However, the first order serial correlation of the residuals, r₁, is 0.318, and is highly significant (p = .0000). With this serial correlation, the standard AR(1)-corrected standard error (“seAR”) is 0.0458, i.e. 44% larger. This leaves the slope still highly significant (p = .0103), but not nearly as significant as is implied by the published CI. The simpler approximation presented by Santer et al., which is based on a 1952 formula by Quenouille and therefore identified here as “seQ” (see below for details), gives the same numerical value as seAR, namely 0.0458. Using either seAR or seQ, the corrected 95% CI is ± 1.964(0.0458) = 0.0900, which is clear inconsistent with the 0.07 reported by Steig et al.

Table 1 below reports similar figures for all the 1957-2006 TIR reconstruction trends for which Steig et al. report numerical values. Implicit Steig standard errors, obtained by dividing their reported 95% CI’s by 2, are given in square brackets [ ]. p-values are given in parentheses below the respective standard errors. Slopes and standard errors are all in °C/decade.

Table 1: 1957-2006

Region	Steig slope	Steig [se]	OLS slope	seOLS (p)	r1	seAR (p)	seQ
All Ant.	.12	[.035]	.1178	.0330 (.0004)	.318	.0458 (.0103)	.0458
Peninsula	.11	[.02]	.1196	.0198 .0000	.262	.0259 (.0000)	.0259
West Ant.	.17	[.03]	.1839	.0311 (.0000)	.312	.0429 (.0000)	.0430
East Ant.	.10	[.035]	.0984	.0374 (.0087)	.290	.0504 (.0512)	.0504

In all four cases, Steig et al. are clearly using seOLS, not seQ or seAR. In the caption to Figure S4 of their online SI, the authors state that
Black lines separate areas of significant vs. insignificant trends (>95% confidence based on two-tailed t-test with number of degrees of freedom adjusted for temporal autocorrelation). (SI p. 4)

The reference to adjusting the number of degrees of freedom would imply that they are using the Santer/Quenouille seQ adjustment. However, the confidence intervals they report in fact show no correction for serial correlation, by either method. The article’s Figure 3, showing regions of significant and insignificant trends, is therefore erroneous.

Today at Nature an addendum confirming Dr. McCulloch’s claims that autocorrelation had not been accounted for was released with the following text:

Consensus Hoax

A group of 60 German scientists decline to accept the consensus view of global warming.  The article was run on Climate Depot Here yesterday.  I copied out the important text which was a letter by the German scientists to their chancellor.  Climate depot did a fine job of reporting the article but it needs more attention as these professional scientists were willing to sign their own names to this document and despite Real Climate’s wish to stifle any dissent and even the leftist Hansen’s reported suggestion of criminalization of dissent their views are equal and deserve to be heard.

Here are a few excerpts from the letter.  I found the opening paragraph particularly compelling.  History isn’t discussed enough in blogland and even a brief mention is welcome.

When one studies history, one learns that the development of societies is often determined by a zeitgeist, which at times had detrimental or even horrific results for humanity. History tells us time and again that political leaders often have made poor decisions because they followed the advice of advisors who were incompetent or ideologues and failed to recognize it in time. Moreover evolution also shows that natural development took a wide variety of paths with most of them leading to dead ends. No era is immune from repeating the mistakes of the past.

I did not realize that Angela Merkel is a physicist who had previously implemented economy wrecking cap and trade policies as the state envirowhacko prior to becoming the Chancellor.  At least we know German voters aren’t any smarter than American ones.  These scientists express the same concerns that we skeptics have for the procedures and approaches to science of the current team.

You confirmed that climate change is caused by human activity and have made it a primary objective to implement expensive strategies to reduce the so-called greenhouse gas CO2. You have done so without first having a real discussion to check whether early temperature measurements and a host of other climate related facts even justify it.

Of course the most exciting statement is one of denial or lukewarmer status.

Instead the temperature fluctuations have been within normal ranges and are due to natural cycles. Indeed the atmosphere has not warmed since 1998 – more than 10 years, and the global temperature has even dropped significantly since 2003.

Not one of the many extremely expensive climate models predicted this. According to the IPCC, it was supposed to have gotten steadily warmer, but just the opposite has occurred.

More importantly, there’s a growing body of evidence showing anthropogenic CO2 plays no measurable role. Indeed CO2′s capability to absorb radiation is almost exhausted by today’s atmospheric concentrations. If CO2 did indeed have an effect and all fossil fuels were burned, then additional warming over the long term would in fact remain limited to only a few tenths of a degree.

It’s hard to find anything to criticize their document on.  Here was one of my favorite lines:

If it was not for the internet, climate realists would hardly be able to make their voices heard. Rarely do their critical views get published.

They even take the time to lambast the media before closing the letter with a list of names.  Names of Scientists who believe in the scientific method, scientists who believe that data should rule the discussion rather than politics, scientists who understand that physics doesn’t care about beliefs and scientists who will let real fact determine fate rather than pathetically over simplified computer models.

I can’t help but mention that even in Germany we see the same type of leftist politicians pushing the same kind of socialist policies which they know damn well benefit nobody but themselves.

The biggest hoax of all is the hoax of consensus.

Full text is below:

Arctic Ice Weather Patterns

It’s hard to put a sea ice post up against the entertainment RC is providing RC Messed Up. I’m just an engineer though and still learning the business of blogging. It takes days of work (for this computer) to make these videos so hopefully the effort is worthwhile.

In these video’s the centroid is plotted of the Arctic sea ice. The centroid (center of mass) is the point on which an object will balance. It turns out that the calculation of centroids can be expanded quite easily to shapes even as complex as sea ice. It is computed by summing the sea ice concentration m times its distance from a point X and dividing by the sum of the sea ice concentration m. The result in this case is a ‘concentration’ weighted value representing the center of mass (concentration) of the ice sheet.

The basic centroid equation looks like this:

Applied in the X and Y directions we get a point representing the center of the sea ice in the Arctic.

First, let’s see the sea ice extent plot from the AMSRE satellite

Oops, RC Messed Up.

Check out this nice post on Roger Pielke’s blog.  I haven’t reviewed the papers but it seems from the graphical evidence that there was a major boo boo in applying wavelet transforms in a method which essentially wraps the data in a complete circle to take care of endpoint issues in wavelet analysis.  This is a huge and obvious mistake if it’s true.  Ouch!

In fact, the reason why Benestad and Schmidt did not succeed in repeating our calculation is because they have misapplied the wavelet decomposition algorithm known as the maximum overlap discrete wavelet transforms (MODWT). This is crystal clear in their figures 4 where it is evident that they applied the MODWT decomposition in a cyclical periodic mode.

I can’t tell you how sad it makes me to see non-engineers make mistakes.  It’s nice to know that I’m not the only human that screws up, let’s see how they reply to it.  This is a very serious and simplistic error folks, the boys should have known what they were doing enough to avoid this mess up.  They could have sent me an email and I would gladly have told them.  hehe   If they admit the problem and back off on their conclusions let’s give quarter, otherwise —

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On July 22 2009 I posted on the new paper on solar forcing by Lean and Rind 2009 (see). In that post, I also referred to the Benestad and Schmidt 2009 paper on solar forcing which has a conclusion at variance to that in the Lean and Rind paper.

After the publication of my post, Nicole Scafetta asked if he could present a comment (as a guest weblog) on the Benestad and Schmidt paper on my website, since it will take several months for his comment to make it through the review process. In the interests of presenting the perspectives on the issue of solar climate forcing, Nicola’s post appears below. I also invite Benestad and Schmidt to write responses to the Scaftta contribution which I would be glad to post on my website.

GUEST WEBLOG BY NICOLA SCAFETTA

Benestad and Schmidt have recently published a paper in JGR. (Benestad, R. E., and G. A. Schmidt (2009), Solar trends and global warming, J. Geophys. Res., 114, D14101, doi:10.1029/2008JD011639).

This paper criticizes the mathematical algorithms of several papers that claim that the temperature data show a significant solar signature. They conclude that such algorithms are “nonrobust” and conclude that “the most likely contribution from solar forcing a global warming is 7 ± 1% for the 20th century and is negligible for warming since 1980.”

Arctic Sea Ice Center of Mass

This post is in preparation for a new Sea Ice video. The intent of this effort is to see if there’s a way to explore the currents affecting the sea ice directly from the ice data. An algorithm was developed which calculates the centroid of sea ice within a circular radius defined around the pole. A clipping radius was chosen to eliminate distant sea ice which forms in lakes and tight waterways that wold dampen the effect of weather patterns on the sea ice.

The centroid method is a center of mass calculation which was used to find the center of mass for the data. In the case of ice concentration, the premise is that a shift in current would create a shift in the center of mass of the Arctic ice sheet which would allow us to detect the current change through deviation of the centroid from the typical centroid position.

Calculation for center of mass of a dataset is simple, on the X axis it looks like this:

If you’re new to centroids, read this sentence a couple of times- -The sum of the m values times the distance X from a point divided by the sum of the mass m gives the distance weighted average of the values.

Anyway, if the premise is right we should be able to apply the equation above in the X and Y directions, determine the centroid for any day of gridded ice values and see how arctic currents affect the ice sheet. The following images are the first results of an effort which I hope to turn into a video of sea ice with centroids for each image. I used the same plots of July 27ths from before and overlaid the centroid information on each plot.

The large green circle is the clipping region for the sea ice data a small green circle indicates the center of the clipping region. The green cross indicates the centroid of the current ice image. The red arrow’s tail is centered on the average centroid for all images shown here, the head is in the direction of the current centroid from the average centroid of all images. Finally, the length of the arrow is magnified 10 times to make the magnitude of the shift more visible.