the Air Vent

Because the world needs another opinion

Kaufman Arctic Proxies

Posted by Jeff Id on September 19, 2009

Here is a plot of the 23 proxies used to create the Arctic reconstruction. I plotted these so we can see the data and use them to reference which series is which. When someone says Yamal, you know what they’re talking about now. Blue lake is a varve proxy, which is sediment layer thickness. My blue lake that I downloaded didn’t look much like this one but it probably hadn’t been processed through the entirely arbitrary log function like the pro’s do. Thanks to SteveM for making the data easy to get to.

Arctic prox 1-8

Arctic prox 9-16

Arctic prox 17-23

None of these look much like temp curves to me but I’m no climatologist.


5 Responses to “Kaufman Arctic Proxies”

  1. Andy said

    So they are all meant to measure temperature, yet all look different….right…….

  2. Jeff Id said

    Drives me nuts.

  3. timetochooseagain said

    Oh no no! You sillies are most mistaken. Of course not all of them, or even one of them corresponds to anything, but in aggregate we “know” that they can be used to extract a signal without any of the components being related at all! This is all very basic and I refer you back to a very old paper or alternatively a new paper which has been submitted to IJOC.
    ;)

  4. Kondealer said

    I can see only two true “Hockey Sticks” in this lot Yamal (tree rings- discredited by Steve M) and Iceberg Lake (varves- again skillfully demonstrated to be “fiddled” by Steve M).

    What beats me is that, given the essentially randomness of the other proxies(E.g Donard Lake with its 20th Century downtick) and the irregular “lumpiness” of the others in the middle, how on Earth do you arrive at Kaufman’s key graph?

    What would a simple average look like, rather than Kaufman’s manipulations?

  5. Kaufman’s primary move is the selection of proxies. When you have a whole slew of proxies with no common signal, then the average of the non-HS series is essentially noise with a very small amplitude (an application of the Central Limit Theorem.) If you then average in a couple of HS series and variance match in the 20th century (CPS), you get the HS-shaped series back again with a very minor amount of noise added.

    Both Jeff and I have written about this phenomenon on many occasions from various perspectives. It is very obvious but climate scientists seem unable (or unwilling) to understand the point.

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