the Air Vent

Because the world needs another opinion

NewZealand Confirmation

Posted by Jeff Id on November 29, 2009

A post from an anonymous blogger who requested a repost here. Since he did a decent job of demonstrating his methods (far better than CRU) it’s worth taking a look even if his name turned out to be Dr. Evil. From the savecapitalism blog, the recent discovery by the drive by media that New Zealand’s temperature data also contains substantial corrections is confirmed.

—————-

Guest post – HPX83 from the SaveCapitalism blog.

Okay, so I couldn’t help but do it. I had to try and reproduce the New Zealand “glitch”. And I did. When reading this, please remember that it is NOT scientific evidence, it is a first draft for reproducing the results found by others. I have not interpolated to get missing data, and some calculations may have some lack of precision, so do not rely on this data as “evidence” – simply as a reason to look further into the matter yourself. I am not a climatologist.

Recipe :

  1. Fetch data from GHCN datasets found here : ftp://ftp.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/ghcn/v2/ (v2.mean and v2.mean_adj)
  2. Get all lines from v2.mean_adj where country code is 507 (New Zealand)
  3. Remove all lines that have data missing for one or more months (I did NOT interpolate to get missing data, I simply excluded the entire year)
  4. Get annual mean for each line by adding together the months and dividing by 12 (does this muck up the averages, since different months have different number of days?)
  5. Group data by nearest WMO Station, and use the average of all annual means for that WMO Station as data for that WMO Station / Year
  6. Repeat steps (2-6) for all lines in v2.mean that correspond to a line in v2.mean_adj

The result is rather interesting. I took this data and jammed it into the OpenOffice Calc program and let it plot the following for me (thick line is average of all series, with linear regression curve)

New Zealand Temperature Data (raw)New Zealand Temperature Data (raw)

Note how the linear regression curve shows that average of all series start slightly above 12 and ends at around 13, which would be very much in line with the “consensus” agreement that temperatures have gone up 0.7 degrees since the 1840s. However – this is not what you get if you take the adjusted data.

New Zealand Temperature Data (adjusted)New Zealand Temperature Data (adjusted)

Whoa! A whopping 2 degreees increase in temperatures instead of the 0.7. How is this done? Well, look how the adjusted values makes the average start at around 11-11.5, and ends a bit above 13. The linear regression really says it all. I’ve tried to get the same coloring for the different series in both graphs, so the “adjustments” of different series become apparent. The series 93119 shows much of the story.

Now – I’m not saying these weren’t valid adjustments – but it is VERY INTERESTING that the raw data seems to show a COMPLETELY different picture than the adjusted data. If one “adjusts” data, one could reasonably expect (or??) that about the same amount of adjustments would be done up and down. Or at least that the adjustments would be reasonably spread over time, with somewhat similar magnitude (or??). Since I am not a climatologist, maybe I’m completely wrong.

MAYBE THE MOST PROBABLE THING IS FOR THE GRAPH TO LOOK LIKE SOMEONE SAT ON THE BACK END OF IT.

Food for thought, anyways ……


15 Responses to “NewZealand Confirmation”

  1. Nick Stokes said

    It’s not a recent discovery. Steve Mc did an exhaustive analysis of Wellington and its adjustments in 2007. The GHCN adjusted and unadjusted data have been available for years.

  2. Jeff Id said

    #1 Perhaps it should say – recent discovery by the drive by media

  3. Jeff Id said

    Yeah, I’ll fix that.

  4. Ian said

    You might want to correct the spelling of the country’s name in the title, while you’re at it…New Zealand…

    Cheers.

  5. kuhnkat said

    Nick Stokes,

    since you are apparently the assigned apologist, would you mind explaining the adjustments, the selection of stations, the selection of dates for stations selected and where the metadata is located that these decisions are based upon?

    Then again, we could go look at the work someone has put into analysing the station data for New Zealand:

    http://chiefio.wordpress.com/2009/11/13/ghcn-pacific-islands-sinking-from-the-top-down/

    There are a lot more interesting GISS and GHCN analysis he has done. Please hop over there and see whether he is is doing useful work.

  6. Nick Stokes said

    KK,
    I don’t currently have the information to do that. But E.M.Smith didn’t do any analysis in that link either. He just counted the stations by altitude.

  7. Al said

    Is there any such animal as a “Station Closure Adjustment?”

    I’ve waded through the discussions on TOBS, MMTS, SHAP, FILNET, and Urban adjustments. It seems like it should be an aspect of SHAP. But it isn’t clear to me whether anything at all is done if, say, a cool station (and thus, a cool gridcell) situated between two warm gridcells (or the reverse) is removed.

  8. Chris Australia said

    I’m not sure if this is the best place to post this. But as I got the news of FOI2009.zip (and downloaded it)here on the 20th and I’m 14 hours ahead of the USA, I figured I should post these findings here.

    It has been said that the whistle blower has never been heard of since the release of thezip file.

    I don’t believe this is true.

    To all you detectives out there who watched the Hitler movie “Peer Review 1945.wmf” and missed the hidden meanings.

    Take note of the date at which it was posted on YouTube. 19th November.

    The name of the poster “indusieumgresium”

    A link to biology, trees, tree rings.

    The name is made up of 2 Latin words, indusieum gresium

    Some translations: A grey protective layer found ferns. Agrey protective layer between the hemisphers ov the brain.

    Well describes the “Hockey Team” at the CRU.

    Research the meaning of the Latin and see the links !

    My questions are to you.

    On the 19th November,

    How did the poster, indusieumgresium, know the full contents of the emails in such a short time. Took me days to get the guist of the contents.

    Have enough time to get the clip, do the edits, insert the sub-titles, which are directly connected to the leaked emails, assemble the finished clip and get it posted on YouTube.

    I believe we are seeing the work of the whistle blower, blowing it again into the face of Al Gore who is directly connected to Google and YouTube.

    The clues are all there !

  9. Will said

    Have a listen to Aynsley Kellow as he is interviewed by the ABC Counterpoint radio program in Australia. The ABC is one of the mains stream media in this country that has pointedly refused to cover ClimateGate.
    Professor and Head of the School of Government at the University of Tasmania. Expert reviewer for the United Nation’s IPPC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) Fourth Assessment Report: Climate Change and Key Vulnerabilities.
    I do not think that the ABC reporter was prepared for what Professor Kellow had to say.
    He was scathing in his criticism of the hole GlimateGate gang.

    http://www.abc.net.au/rn/counterpoint/stories/2009/2757619.htm

    or for the direct audio here:

    http://www.abc.net.au/cgi-bin/common/player_launch.pl?s=rn/counterpoint_item&d=rn/counterpoint/audio/items&r=cpt_30112009_1605.ram&w=cpt_30112009_1605.asx&t=Climate%20science:%20The%20leaked%20emails%20-%2030%20November%202009

  10. hpx83 said

    You calling me Dr. Evil or just saying that my data holds up even if I would be doctor Evil? I’ll take pride in getting a repost regardless. :) I guess my problem is I run a politics/economics blog that after the CRU bomb turned into a temporary outlet for climate stuff.

  11. Jeff Id said

    #10, Just making a joke. I thought your post was worthwhile because people can see independent confirmation of the original story. Nice job.

    If you have time and can find a way, some would probably like it if you uploaded the file to a free server and linked to it.

  12. timetochooseagain said

    Off Topic, but I noticed another insane email in the CRU files:

    First, off, let me say that WUWT pointed me in this direction:

    http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/11/29/shocker-crus-jones-giss-is-inferior/

    When I went to the file itself, well:

    http://devoidofnulls.wordpress.com/2009/11/30/nice-to-critique-you/

  13. Hoi Polloi said

    “On the 19th November,

    How did the poster, indusieumgresium, know the full contents of the emails in such a short time. Took me days to get the guist of the contents.

    Have enough time to get the clip, do the edits, insert the sub-titles, which are directly connected to the leaked emails, assemble the finished clip and get it posted on YouTube.”

    Apparently a BBC weatherman already received some of the emails on Oct.12th. Therefore I think this whole action has been planned already for quite a long time ago. Not just an overnight hack action.

  14. xyzlatin said

    Indusieumgresium. possible ideas.
    Indusium – the covering of the sorus of a fern. (connection to George Soros here?)
    enduein = to sink into, put upon – a membrane serving as a covering
    A Sorus is a cluster of sporangia – tiny stalked sacs which contain spores.
    In fungi and lichens, the sorus is surrounded by an external layer. in some species they are protected during development by a scale or film of tissue called the indusium, which forms an umbrella like cover.
    There seems to me to be some sort of connection here between this YouTube clip loaded with quotes from the leaked emails, posted on Nov 19th by a new poster who uses an obscure Latin/Greek pseudonym which has the meaning of a coverup of a sorus (Soros). Can this be dismissed as a coincidence? The clip is entitled Peer_Review_1945.wmv

  15. stumpy said

    Just to confirm the results here, I also did a temperature construction for NZ a couple years ago, I used RAW (direct from NIWA’s cliflo system), RAW adjusted for shifts in data (station moves), and GISS “manipulated” data. The later two yielded no statistically significant rise in temp, and the GISS reconstruction showed only a slight trend. In my analysis I selected the better sighted stations with long term history (I note GISS chops most stations short and doesnt show modern data for some reason???). Meta data for stations is available through NIWA’s cliflo, and the records are pretty good. I have visited some of the stations, the best are not included in GISS, but Musselburgh and Christchurch Botanical gardens are good sites, though in urban areas, they are in open areas of grass away from most buildings. My reconstructions were weighted by station coverage, calculated using theissen polygons.

    I am no expert in statistics however, otherwise I would have published this work. Jeff, it may be worthwhile someone who really understands this stuff also having ago and seeing what result they get. NIWA’s website has a free access web interface for all of their RAW station data and has much more data than GISS/NOAA etc…with longer records and some better sights. I would be happy to provide information on any stations.

    There is one problem with NZ reconstructions, most the sites are coastal, decent inland sites on the south island and many parts of the north island are limited due to harsh terrain, sparse population and extreme weather. Inland of Ross for example you can get 14,000mm of rainfall a year!

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