the Air Vent

Because the world needs another opinion

Extreme Ski Trip

Posted by Jeff Id on November 30, 2009

It’s hard to know what to write about, there is simply too much here.  So let’s do a fun one… Where would you hold a global warming conference dedicated to ‘extremes’ — Switzerland?

Can anyone say  — Ski trip!!

Art Furrer Resort Hotel, Riederalp, Switzerland
January 28-31, 2009
Please scroll down for all information

VI01


Rationale for the meeting

This is a follow-up workshop of several meetings that took place in Switzerland (Chateau-d’Oex 2004, 2005; Riederalp 2006, 2007). It aims to bring together scientists in the ENSEMBLES project who work on extreme events to discuss progress made in this field since the previous meetings, the most important results on extremes and remaining work on this topic.

This will be a small workshop (not a conference) with no more than 25 participants consisting mainly of scientists working on extremes in ENSEMBLES plus a few invited extremes experts. Priority will be given to scientists in ENSEMBLES who are actively working on extreme events towards ENSEMBLES deliverables. There is room for about 15 oral presentations and the opportunity to present a poster.
—————–

I didn’t even know there was a whole field dedicated to “worse than we thought”.    Here’s an email from the boys.

 

From: Ben Santer <santer1@llnl.gov>
To: P.Jones@uea.ac.uk
Subject: Re: Good news!  Plus less good news
Date: Thu, 29 Jan 2009 11:13:21 -0800
Reply-to: santer1@llnl.gov

<x-flowed>
Dear Phil,

Yeah, I had already seen the stuff from McIntyre. Tom Peterson sent it
to me. McIntyre has absolutely no understanding of climate science. He
doesn’t realize that, as the length of record increases and trend
confidence intervals decrease, even trivially small differences between
an individual observed trend and the multi-model average trend are
judged to be highly significant. These model-versus-observed trend
differences are, however, of no practical significance whatsoever – they
are well within the structural uncertainties of the observed MSU trends.

It would be great if Francis and Myles got McIntyre’s paper for review.
Also, I see that McIntyre has put email correspondence with me in the
Supporting Information of his paper. What a jerk!

I will write to Keith again. The Symposium wouldn’t be the same without
him. I think Tom would be quite disappointed.

Have fun in Switzerland!

With best regards,

Ben

P.Jones@uea.ac.uk wrote:
>  Ben,
>    I’m at an extremes meeting in Riederalp – near Brig. I’m too
>  old to go skiing. I’ll go up the cable car to see the Aletsch Glacier
>  at some point – when the weather is good. Visibility is less than
>  200m at the moment.
>
>    It is good news that Rob can come. I’m still working on
>  Keith. It might be worth you sending him another email,
>  telling him what he’ll be missing if he doesn’t go. I think
>  Sarah will come, but I’ve not yet been in CRU when she has.
>
>    With free wifi in my room, I’ve just seen that M+M have
>  submitted a paper to IJC on your H2 statistic – using more
>  years, up to 2007. They have also found your PCMDI data -
>  laughing at the directory name – FOIA? Also they make up
>  statements saying you’ve done this following Obama’s
>  statement about openness in government! Anyway you’ll likely
>  get this for review, or poor Francis will. Best if both
>  Francis and Myles did this. If I get an email from Glenn I’ll
>  suggest this.
>
>    Also I see Pielke Snr has submitted a comment on Sherwood’s
>  work. He is a prat. He’s just had a response to a comment
>  piece that David Parker, Tom Peterson and I wrote on a paper
>  they had in 2007. Pielke wouldn’t understand independence if it
>  hit him in the face. Both papers in JGR online. Not worth you
>  reading them unless interested.
>
>  Cheers
>  Phil
>
>

True field work.  I’ll chuck the blog and sign up for my global warming merit badge if the government would ship me for a ski trip in  Switzerland, per diem, tickets, lodging included.

 

11 Responses to “Extreme Ski Trip”

  1. Mark T said

    Just booked our first “trip” to Copper Mountain for this coming weekend. Of course, I’ve already skied twice, and I only live 135 miles from the resort, but I thought I’d rub it… er, point it out anyway. My ski-buddy and I may drive up Friday morning which will give us three days at the slopes, woohoo!

    Funny, btw, Phil Jones saying Pielke doesn’t understand independence. Based on what I have read of the methods many of these jokers employ, they don’t even understand the term uncorrelated.

    Mark

  2. crosspatch said

    If, according to this press release from UEA, the CRU was “key” to setting the UK national agenda, then there is a serious problem, indeed. You can not have a research organization championing policy agenda else some serious “validation pressure” occurs as time elapses lest the institution lose credibility. If CRU predicts X will happen and pushes for national policy due to X but instead Y happens, people are less likely to pay attention the next time that institution issues warning of some piece of sky falling. So that puts them under serious pressure to ensure that their prediction is correct.

    There are some things that can be predicted with some certainty like an asteroid on a certain trajectory that can be calculated to show a direct impact on Earth. Now that would be worth getting people upset over. The problem with the CRU’s forecast is that it is more crystal ball than interpretation of physics. They’ve blown it.

  3. R Shearer said

    Does it take a prat to know one, that’s what I want to know?

    In any case, to your point about all the travel these guys do to meetings all over the world, don’t you think that if they were sincere, they might think about tele-conferencing?

  4. Ian said

    Somewhat off topic, but check out Warwick Hughes’ site:

    CRU quietly revising 8 months of 2009 global temperature data
    November 29th, 2009 by Warwick Hughes
    njcons has just told me CRU have just “deleted” – removed 8 months of their CRUT3 monthly anomalies for 2009. Unannounced that I have seen. I checked at about 6am Canberra time on 30 Nov.
    Sure enough downloading the CRUTEM3 Global mean I see only Jan and Feb for 2009;
    2009 0.561 0.713 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.637
    2009 27 26 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
    HadCRUT3 is the same, 8 months edited out – as is HadSST2 – so the issue is through land and sea data.
    However, nobody has told the Hadley Centre…..

    Anybody got any thoughts on this one? Does anyone have a copy of the … err…scrubbed data?

  5. Ian said

    oops. Maybe the server issue at CRU. Comment on Hughes site is that it’s still available from the MetOffice.

    1.Bob Koss Says:
    November 29th, 2009 at 5:35 pm
    The gridded anomalies thru October are still available here.

    http://hadobs.metoffice.com/crutem3/data/download.html

  6. dearieme said

    ” I think
    > Sarah will come, but I’ve not yet been in CRU when she has.”

    Ah, the travel burdens of Global Leadership!

  7. Paul Z. said

    Let’s blame everything on anthropogenic global warming:

    Michael Jackon’s death? AGW.
    Jennifer Lopez sex tapes? AGW.
    Tiger Woods car accident? AGW.

    After all, the science is settled. No need to check the facts.

  8. debreuil said

    Seems brother Phil wasn’t up for skiing either (1234277656.txt):

    > > > The Swiss extremes workshop has afternoons off for skiing.
    > > > As I don’t, I’ve been on 60 or 90 mins walks along snow covered
    > > > trails. Snow is 1m deep off the trails.
    > > > Anyway back now. So looking at emails. As the sun drops,
    > > > the temperature plummets.

    The complaint is that the emails are always taken out of context. To be clear, here is a real example of taking something out of context:

    ************************************
    Leading climate scientist Phil Jones finds link between temperature and the sun. “As the sun drops, the temperature plummets.” News at eleven.
    ************************************

  9. Jeff Id said

    #8 Seems like evidence of a positive correlation. So you travel to the swiss alps on a hunt for climate extremes and go skiing.

  10. I am super pumped ’cause it just began snowing in my area and that translates to riding in the mountains! In addition I purchased a discount lift tickets pass for a crazy amount of snow resorts!

  11. That hotel looks sweet. Those kind of landscapes are one of the best parts of skiing!

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