the Air Vent

Because the world needs another opinion

Fascinating – No ice in 5 years

Posted by Jeff Id on December 14, 2009

Fascinating.  The Goricle – moving the goal posts.  h/t Ryan O.

When you read this, keep in mind that we have photos of US subs surfacing at the north pole in the summer. I’d bet the Gore …. inator (or whatever), his family fortune against mine hehe, that we will see nothing but ice at the pole for 5 years. Reporters don’t really do numbers so what the heck.

COPENHAGEN – New computer modeling suggests the Arctic Ocean may be nearly ice-free in the summertime as early as 2014, Al Gore said Monday at the U.N. climate conference. This new projection, following several years of dramatic retreat by polar sea ice, suggests that the ice cap may nearly vanish in the summer much sooner than the year 2030, as was forecast by a U.S. government agency eight months ago.

One U.S. government scientist Monday questioned the new prediction as too severe, but other researchers previously have projected a quicker end than 2030 to the Arctic summer ice cap.

“It is hard to capture the astonishment that the experts in the science of ice felt when they saw this,” said former U.S. Vice President Gore, who joined Scandinavian officials and scientists to brief journalists and delegates. It was Gore’s first appearance at the two-week conference.

———

I’ve got to say, my own astonishment is somewhat subdued. After all, we see climategate scientists exaggerating facts for a living, why wouldn’t sea ice scientists do the same? Do they get less money? Do they have different incentives? Whatever.

Perhaps their astonishment is from a different kind of ice model.

Meanwhile, what’s happening to Greenland’s titanic ice sheet “has really surprised us,” said Jensen of the University of Copenhagen.

She cited one huge glacier in west Greenland, at Jakobshavn, that in recent years has doubled its rate of dumping ice into the sea. Between melted land ice and heat expansion of ocean waters, the sea-level rise has increased from 1.8 millimeters a year to 3.4 millimeters (.07 inch a year to .13 inch) in the past 10 years.

Jensen said the biggest ice sheets — Greenland and West Antarctica — were already contributing 1 millimeter (.04 inch) a year to those rising sea levels. She said this could double within the next decade.

“With global warming, we have woken giants,” she said.

Woken, awoken, waked, whatever. The ‘doom’ predictions EVEN FROM THE MODELS must, MUST be due to the weather patterns and NOT due to a few tenths of a degree of warming.

Maybe we’re the sleeping giant Dr. Jensen was talking about.


19 Responses to “Fascinating – No ice in 5 years”

  1. Sonicfrog said

    I thought he wasn’t going to go. He just couldn’t keep away I guess.

    Someone in the press…. challenging Al Gore on facts???? WOW! Now THAT’S real Climate Change!

  2. Sonicfrog said

    PS. You have to check WUWT. The ice extent that has advanced since 2007 is “rotten” ice! I kid you not!!!!

  3. Matt Pearson said

    You know, it was only a little while ago ( and several million degrees) that Al could come up with the wildest claims and the silence from the media was *deafening*. Well, I am detecting a not so subtle turn around on that. Al’s latest gaffe has drawn swift criticism not just from media sources, but the very scientist he is quoting! Earth to Al, the worm has turned. Your 15 minutes are up.

    Check this out.

    http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/environment/copenhagen/article6956783.ece

    Matt Pearson

  4. kuhnkat said

    I hear some people in Vegas, when they are losing, double down to get out of the hole. Maybe they do it in Copenhagen also?

  5. Squidly said

    Sonicfrog,

    He had to go, and he had to pump up the volume, and will continue to do so regardless of how much he is called out. Do you realize how much money he has invested in this garbage? If Cap’N Trade fails, he is sunk (and rightfully so). Meanwhile, carbon markets around the world are beginning to collapse (again, rightfully so). I also believe these so-called “green” technologies are going to be next to collapse (they don’t work and are too expensive). Bio-fuels will be next to go as 3rd world and developing countries are starving, violence will escalate to extreme levels and spill into the US, forcing the US to do something about it and divert crops back to food production (there will be no choice but to do so). I would advise Al dump his investments now and save his ass or he will be next in the welfare line.

    Al Gore will be broke long before the Arctic ice melts.

  6. Wow, this is great news.

    Just when I was starting to worry about how to keep the Climategate momentum going;

    Big Al steps up to the plate and uncorks a whopper for us…

    And the guy whose words he is mangling does an immediate disavowal…

    No need for ‘the folks’ to understand anything complicated with this little beauty…

    Just Big Al Bloviating!

    Thanks for the re-Ass-your ants.
    TL

  7. Craigo said

    Is that a photo of the new models for Catlin II? They look much better than the hand jobs used on the last trip. I would be concerned that the length of drill would bias the results towards 1st year ice!

  8. [...] The Air Vent, and WattsUpWithThat Comments (0) Trackbacks (0) Leave a comment [...]

  9. Alberto said

    Well, I can also make a model that shows no ice at the poles. I can also make a model that makes the whole earth freeze over. No problem.

  10. Phil A said

    It can’t be a coincidence that almost overnight the stories about global warming have been replaced by scares about ocean acidification from CO2 (“X million people may STARVE due to ocean acidification from man-made CO2″).

    I love the sound of moving goalposts in the morning…

  11. Peter said

    Well, given all the catastrophes are going to happen so soon according to Al Gore and the rest of the alarmists, why bother doing anything? It’s far too late! So, why are they wasting our time and money with these pointless meetings? Can anyone please explain what I’m missing here?

  12. Aber said

    Al Gore says he relied on polar ice computer modelling for his speech in Copenhagen: Why? He knew it already 20 years ago (extract from the book ‘Arctic Heats Up’, 2009, Ch6) :
    >>>Al Gore’s had paid the North Pole a visit by submarine before becoming Vice President of the U.S.A: “We were crashing through that ice, surfacing, and I was standing in an eerily beautiful snowscape, windswept, and sparkling white, with the horizon defined by little hummocks, or ‘pressure ridges’ of ice that are pushed up like tiny mountains ranges when separate sheets collide. But here too, CO2 levels are rising just as rapidly, …As the polar air warms, the ice here will thin; and since the polar cap plays such a crucial role in the world’s weather system, the consequences of a thinning cap could be disastrous” (Al Gore; “The Earth in Balance”, London, 1992)<<<
    More at: http://www.arctic-heats-up.com/chapter_6.html

  13. Espen said

    I predict that not even Hawaii will be ice free in the summer of 2050. In fact, the summer polar ice will extend all the way to the equator. My prediction is based on the 13% increase from 2008 to 2009, but I think it may be worse than we think, the growth rate may be accelerating, so don’t be surprised if Snowball Earth arrives 20 years early.

    More seriously, I was very disappointed to see Norway’s secretary of state mr. Støre co-present this “it’s worse than we thought” research with Al Gore.

  14. John Bowman said

    It is now proven that the unprecedented global warming is exponentially linked to the millions of degrees of heat emissions coming up out of the Earth.

    “It’s the truth, Jim, but not as we know it.”

  15. Balach said

    Mainstream media in UK are now questioning the science. This is the front page of the Daily Express today:

    http://www.dailyexpress.co.uk/posts/view/146139

  16. stan said

    Jeff,

    OT – you might want to check this out http://climatesanity.wordpress.com/2009/12/13/michael-mann-averaging-error-demo/

    “This may be beating a dead horse, but I thought it would be fun to examine the question of data centering, or mean subtraction, for principal component analysis (PCA). So, I created a program that does a side by side comparison of PCA on simple noise with proper averaging and with Michael Mann styled improper averaging.”

  17. Phillip Bratby said

    Prof Philip Stott thinks the awakening of giants is faster than we thought.

    http://web.me.com/sinfonia1/Clamour_Of_The_Times/Clamour_Of_The_Times/Entries/2009/12/15_Now_the_Front_Page_-_Global_Warming_is_Going_Down_Like_Nine_Pins.html

  18. Gary P said

    Gore is moving the goal posts. From one year ago we have:

    http://wattsupwiththat.com/2008/12/14/gore-entire-north-polar-ice-cap-will-be-gone-in-5-years/

    The ice will be gone four years from now according to Al. Actually its less than that as the ice will need to be gone by September 2013.

    Al Gore is making the number one mistake that the climate modelers have learned to avoid. Never, never ever make a hard prediction for a time period before you are retired.

  19. kevoka said

    #11 – One thing NOBODY is discussing that we could do to save the world from total and utter collapse due to overheating in the next 5 years and, to my knowledge, is accepted by all to be a fact:

    Encourage ;), if you will, a volcano (or 2) to go off. They really don’t do to much damage to the immediate surroundings, and would drop the old global T pretty quickly…

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