the Air Vent

Because the world needs another opinion

Archive for January, 2010

There’s one thing you can always count on government for.

Posted by Jeff Id on January 31, 2010

I made the point recently that the ICO’s admission that a crime had been committed followed by the quick statement that it wouldn’t be followed up, due to an unusual statute of limitations looked like a scam to cover someones butt. My point was that there is always another law. In that post it turned out that the ICO was apparently the same group that told Jones et team, they could break the law in the first place. Now Lucia has an interesting post which points out the statute of limitations doesn’t appear to begin from the time when the crime was committed, but rather when the authorities became aware of it.

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What we don’t know.

Posted by Jeff Id on January 31, 2010

An interesting paper from Science.

Contributions of Stratospheric Water Vapor to Decadal Changes in the Rate of Global Warming

Susan Solomon,1 Karen Rosenlof,1 Robert Portmann,1 John Daniel,1 Sean Davis,1,2 Todd Sanford,1,2 Gian-Kasper Plattner3

Stratospheric water vapor concentrations decreased by about 10% after the year 2000. Here, we show that this acted to slow the rate of increase in global surface temperature over 2000 to 2009 by about 25% compared to that which would have occurred due only to carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases. More limited data suggest that stratospheric water vapor probably increased between 1980 and 2000, which would have enhanced the decadal rate of surface warming during the 1990s by about 30% compared to estimates neglecting this change. These findings show that stratospheric water vapor represents an important driver of decadal global surface climate change.

1 NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory, Chemical Sciences Division, Boulder, CO, USA.
2 Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, University of Colorado, Boulder, Colorado, USA.
3 Climate and Environmental Physics, Physics Institute, University of Bern, Sidlerstrasse 5, 3012 Bern, Switzerland.

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Love Hurts

Posted by Jeff Id on January 31, 2010

You have to read it to believe it.

At WUWT — IPCC now in Bizarroland: Pachauri releases “smutty” romance novel

At Climate Audit — The IPCC’s Love Guru

There isn’t much more to say except India love is HOT!!

“She removed her gown, slipped off her nightie and slid under the quilt on his bed… Sanjay put his arms around her and kissed her, first with quick caresses and then the kisses becoming longer and more passionate.

“May slipped his clothes off one by one, removing her lips from his for no more than a second or two.

“Afterwards she held him close. ‘Sandy, I’ve learned something for the first time today. You are absolutely superb after meditation. Why don’t we make love every time immediately after you have meditated?’.”

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The Politics of Nature

Posted by Jeff Id on January 30, 2010

Below is a text from a Nature editorial sent me by email. A pdf of the article is here 463269a

Recently Nature has published multiple editorials which will appeal to the consensus scientists of a certian political view so prevalent in climate science. In reading them, these people have completely lost contact with the real world. So in order to help those who have not been paying attention, I’ve included a proper interpretation of what the article is saying.

Before I get started, Nature is continuing the coverup and propagandization of the climategate emails. In covering the truth, they apparently are complicit co-conspirators and open supporters of the corruption recently exposed in climate science. Their attempted coverup of the truth followed by an open advocacy of leftist govenrnment, hints at the breadth of the true problem. The editorial is funny though when it explains that it’s the public’s lack of understanding that creates the problem, not the proposed political system itself. Didn’t Mao say something like that?

My comments are in red, this necessarily messed with the formatting a bit.

Climate of suspicion

With climate-change sceptics waiting to pounce on any scientific uncertainties, researchers need a sophisticated strategy for communication. TX-We’ve been caught with our hands in the cookie jar and people are paying attention to what we’ve been doing. Only through complex and coordinated efforts can we obfuscate the truth enough to cover our tracks. Climate science, like any active field of research, has some major gaps in understanding (see page 284). Yet the political stakes have grown so high in this field, and the public discourse has become so heated, that climate researchers find it hard to talk openly about those gaps. TX – people who don’t want government throttling of industry as the solution to climate change won’t listen to why it’s a better system. The small coterie of individuals who deny humanity’s influence on climate will try to use any perceived flaw in the evidence to discredit the entire picture. So how can researchers honestly describe the uncertainty in their work without it being misconstrued? TX – Those who bring up problems need to be assigned extremist status, it’s their fault that researchers aren’t being honest. They put pressure on the otherwise honest researchers to hide the declines.

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Green Reveiwed Litrachur

Posted by Jeff Id on January 30, 2010

This was sent by email to me from Climatequotes, apparently greenpeace has been a regular in IPCC reports for some time.


From Climatequotes:

After hearing about Greenpeace being cited in the IPCC’s Fourth Assessment report, I went back and looked at the Third Assessment Report to see if they had been cited there are well. Turns out they were, at least four times. Three of them were from Working Group II: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability, and one was from Working Group III: Mitigation. The first is in working group II: Impact, section 12.1.4. Climate Trends:

“There is some evidence of long-term variations in the Australasian region in storm frequency and tropical cyclones (Nicholls et al., 1996a; Radford et al., 1996; Hopkins and Holland, 1997; Leighton et al., 1997).”

Radford et al is referenced as:

Radford, D., R. Blong, A.M. d’Aubert, I. Kuhnel, and P. Nunn, 1996: Occurence of Tropical Cyclones in the Southwest Pacific Region 1920-1994. Greenpeace International, Amsterdam, The Netherlands, 35 pp.

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Deep Black – Hide the decline

Posted by Jeff Id on January 29, 2010

Ya know guys, those other blogs really don’t know what’s going on. You have to stop here to figure it out. We’re talking 12 — 21 inch monitors, 5 people reviewing the internet constantly, just to bring you the latest in climategate news.

Climategate Professor Phil Jones could face ten years on fraud charges

Doctor Phillip Climategate Jones

Just kidding, H/T Reader Stephen

If Phil has to be the martyr for all of climate science it’s no help to me. There are a lot of individuals equally guilty of exaggeration and hiding of the decline. Phil was just one of the crowd who happened to be an idiot with his data so he became the center.

I wonder how Mick Kelly escaped the powerful lens of the media investigating Climategate. This one is H/T Jeff Id and Mick Kelly…

From: Mick Kelly <>
To: <>

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One Track Modeling

Posted by Jeff Id on January 28, 2010

I found an interesting post on satellite observation methodology at Dr. Roy Spencer’s blog earlier and asked permission to run some of his posts.  Before I could, WUWT ran the one I was looking at but in the process I got permission to use some of his work.  Today Dr. Spencer has an interesting post on climate models which makes the point that pre-1940 warming cannot be accounted for.


Guest post Dr. Roy Spencer

Evidence for Natural Climate Cycles in the IPCC Climate Models’ 20th Century Temperature Reconstructions

January 27th, 2010

What can we learn from the IPCC climate models based upon their ability to reconstruct the global average surface temperature variations during the 20th Century?

While the title of this article suggests I’ve found evidence of natural climate cycles in the IPCC models, it’s actually the temperature variability the models CANNOT explain that ends up being related to known climate cycles. After an empirical adjustment for that unexplained temperature variability, it is shown that the models are producing too much global warming since 1970, the period of most rapid growth in atmospheric carbon dioxide. This suggests that the models are too sensitive, in which case they are forecasting too much future warming, too.

Climate Models’ 20th Century Runs
We begin with the IPCC’s best estimate of observed global average surface temperature variations over the 20th Century, from the “HadCRUT3″ dataset. (Monthly running 3-year averages are shown throughout.) Of course, there are some serious concerns over the validity of this observed temperature record, especially over the strength of the long-term warming trend, but for the time being let’s assume it is correct (click on image to see a large version).

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These are not the thermometers you’re looking for

Posted by Jeff Id on January 28, 2010

Guest post by Gavin Schmidt.

“The idea that we’re fraudulently cutting out stations is appallingly defamatory and ignorant,” he said. “These people are desperate to come up with some hint of impropriety. The allegations are absolutely without foundation and based on profound ignorance.”

Schmidt also said a smaller sampling of weather stations in the Canadian Arctic wouldn’t have a significant impact on the data. He said any long-term temperature changes recorded at the high Arctic station at Eureka, would likely be “representative” of changes elsewhere in the region, even in a sub-Arctic city like Yellowknife.

I didn’t make the claims, but I know some people who did. They tend to be pretty careful about looking at data. If Gavin’s right, why not just keep all the data in the record? –Jeff Id

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UEA was Advised by ICO to Ignore FOI

Posted by Jeff Id on January 27, 2010

Jonathan Leake at The Sunday Times Revealed UK To Seek Change in FOI Law……. But that’s not the whole story.

Recently Johnathan Leake has been covering one story after another regarding the corruption of the IPCC process and results. Yesterday by email, he’s received and passed on a press release from the Norfolk police regarding the release of the Climategate emails . This breaking news is an official recognition by the police that not only was FOI law broken but it ABSOLUTELY will NOT be prosecuted and INSTEAD the information comissioners office intends to seek a change in FOI law to prevent future intentional abuse.

Graham Smith, Deputy Commissioner, said:

“Norfolk Police are investigating how private emails have become public.
The Information Commissioner’s Office is assisting the police investigation with advice on data protection and freedom of information.

The emails which are now public reveal that Mr Holland’s requests under the Freedom of Information Act were not dealt with as they should have been under the legislation. Section 77 of the Freedom of Information Act makes it an offence for public authorities to act so as to prevent intentionally the disclosure of requested information. Mr Holland’s FOI requests were submitted in 2007/8, but it has only recently come to light that they were not dealt with in accordance with the Act.

The legislation requires action within six months of the offence taking place, so by the time the action taken came to light the opportunity to consider a prosecution was long gone. The ICO is gathering evidence from this and other time-barred cases to support the case for a change in the law. It is important to note that the ICO enforces the law as it stands – we do not make it.

It is for government and Parliament to consider whether this aspect of the legislation should be strengthened to deter this type of activity in future. We will be advising the University about the importance of effective records management and their legal obligations in respect of future requests for information. We will also be studying the investigation reports (by Lord Russell and Norfolk Police), and we will then consider what regulatory action, if any, should then be taken under the Data Protection Act.”

If you need anything further please contact us.

Kind regards,


ICO Press Office
020 7025 7580

Of course the statute of limitations for this law makes no sense. Bishop Hill recently blogged on the issue. People simply cannot be prosecuted for the British FOI law because by the time you find out about it, the moronic SIX MONTH statute of limitations has run out. There is no way the SOL was not intentionally made to take all the teeth out of FOI.

There is more than one problem here though. The ICO washes it’s hands above with the statement:

It is important to note that the ICO enforces the law as it stands – we do not make it.

Initially this post was going to go through the FOI emails and point out the collusion between scientists and government officials to block FOI and the fact that there is more than one law in the UK. But then I found in the emails this little beauty.

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Bending the Thermometers

Posted by Jeff Id on January 26, 2010

Reader Boballab found this an entire day before it was supposed to be released. It’s a paper written byJoseph D’Aleo and Anthony Watts for the Science and Public Policy Institute.

Many of us are familiar with the accusations made by D’Aleo and EM Smith regarding the systematic elimination of colder temperature stations. They claimed that there is specific intent to distort the temperature record to inflate the true temperatures today. Not that hard to believe considering what we’ve recently learned from Climategate and the IPCC, however this paper goes a step further. It’s a comprehensive report on the numerous flaws in the dataset, including surfacestations, data elimination and a variety of other issues.

The report is 111 pages long and to put it simply, it contains the single strongest worded accusations against climate science of anything I’ve read from qualified skeptics. Here’s a quote:

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Pielke Jr. on IPCC Response

Posted by Jeff Id on January 26, 2010

Roger Pielke jr. has a post on the response of the IPCC to what is obviously intentionally false information on disaster costs from global warming.  Please take a few minutes of your day and read the response of this prestigious UN organization in context.:

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Winner Of Prestigious 2009 Air Vent Climate Quote Award

Posted by Jeff Id on January 26, 2010

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CRU Glue

Posted by Jeff Id on January 25, 2010

This post demonstrates the problem with the temperature station data. Again this is station, 25563 which has the following extensive metadata.

 222 25563  0 ANADYR'                        64.78 177.57    6 1   77  R    -9FLxxC O 5  A- 9TUNDRA

That’s it. Sometimes there are several listings for the multiple versions in the ‘raw’ data, however in this case there is a single entry for 8 separate timeseries. The “R” is a rural classification, however this town has 11,000 inhabitants according to Wiki– and we know Wiki is never wrong. That census was in 2002 and just to be clear — rural in GHCN means not associated with a town of 10,000 or more people. Why the hell can’t we afford good temperature records?

Anadyr Siberia - Typical housing complexes. Wiki.

The google embedded map is awesome. You can drag it, zoom in and out, switch from satellite ground images to maps. Very cool.

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Global Warming IPCC Meltdown

Posted by Jeff Id on January 25, 2010

This is the biggest story in climate science right now.  There are a number of well known exaggerations in the IPCC report i.e. drought, hide the decline paleo chapter, all are 100% in the direction of expanding IPCC funding influence and control.  Only now are some of the ugly bits coming to light.  I’m sick of it though, so instead of blogging, I’ll put up a few links on the topic.

Climate Audit on Glaciergate.

WUWT on intentionall omission of information which would run contrary to my point above.

Bishop Hill on the fact that FOI law apparently was designed to be broken. NO prosecutions are expected.  — This is particularly troubling becasue although there is now an unrealistic 6 month timeframe for prosecution of FOI law, there have got to be several other laws that these boys broke in colluding to break FOI.  The police apparently can’t find any.

So that means that the government, investigating itself, can find no reason why the government should look too hard to see if there was any wrong doing by said government.

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GHCN Another Way

Posted by Jeff Id on January 25, 2010

Ok so I’ve spent far too much time this weekend messing around with GHCN data in R. R has memory limitations which have driven me to the edge of sanity but doggedly I pushed on. In case you weren’t sure, slogging through temperature data is a crap way to spend a weekend but I’m getting closer to an independently created gridded temperature dataset by someone who makes not one penny for promoting one conclusion or another. Unfortunately, were stuck with the crap data archive at GHCN.

Yesterday my goal was simple, instead of collecting timeseries into a single WMO number, I wanted to collect every individual series into it’s own column in a matrix. To that end I wrote the following code. It looks simple but there were a ton of issues with getting this to work . Two days worth in fact, R doesn’t have good memory handling, doesn’t have breakpoints and runs impossibly slow if certain commands are or are not used. All of it makes sense after you beat your head on the wall enough, which I did, and the beginning of the result is shown in the code for compiling all of the GHCN series individually is below.
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