Definitions

Left foot forward, a blog for communists I guess, has a new thread which discusses the Air Vent.  Apparently they commissioned a research group to discuss the release of climategate emails.   You can see the little tiny ball they gave the Air Vent as a link to other blogs.  Of course they labeled the links all wrong and placed tAV at the farthest reaches.

This is how they describe us Air Vent bloggers.

Tracing the online paper trail back to its source, the researchers concluded that:

• The ‘Climategate’ story was first aired on climate denier blog The Air Vent, before wending its way onto more popular sceptic sites Climate Audit and Watts Up With That, and then featured by James Delingpole in his Daily Telegraph blog – whose followers propagated it further;

Again with the denialist name calling, TAV DOES NOT DENY GLOBAL WARMING!! Jackasses, but look at the links. They rightly  linked to the blackboard, oddly linked to nofrakkingconsensus or noconsensus.org , which I believe started after tAV and actually I’ve had very little contact with. Oddly there are no links whatsoever to CA or WUWT, whomever released the climategate files was very familiar with the odd position this blog took in the pile, better than these internet pro’s.  Prior to climategate, most of the traffic here was the CA crowd.  More CA readers came than even WUWT readers despite being in both blogrolls.  Now WUWT leads the pack.  No link to Bishop Hill either, despite that being one of the first links on the blogroll.

Anyway, it’s interesting how they try to define the history for the benefit of others.  It’s odd that they wouldn’t send an email to ask a question but I suspect it’s my political posts which have changed me (and you) from a reasonable skeptic crowd to evil denialists. Sorryish for that readers.

If you feel like helping them get their story straight, here is the link. I couldn’t leave a comment there myself because the comment link wouldn’t work.

H/T: Lucia, who’s pingback got my attention.

People Dependent are People Enslaved

If you think health care had anything to do with providing improved services, you are wrong. America is being systematically robbed and destroyed from inside by criminal elements in charge of banks, insurance agencies and now our government.

The powers not delegated to the United States by the Constitution, nor prohibited by it to the States, are reserved to the States respectively, or to the people.  10th amendment.

The constitution is only a piece of paper.

I never thought I would need to fly the American flag upside down, but then again,  I never thought the American people were stupid enough to vote away their success.  Wrong again…….

“The flag should never be displayed with the union down, except as a signal of dire distress in instances of extreme danger to life or property.”

It is a sad day for America and indeed for the world.  Today is the day a huge portion of the freedom of the American people was stolen.  The day that criminals in charge of government ignore the law of the land, find and define false loopholes in the law, manipulate each other with massive bribery and monetary blackmail, force a money robbing destruction on the American people.  All for the direct benefit of their suitors.  In the midst of it all, the most disgusting part is that far too many American fools cheer them on.  One more step to complete slavery, and it was no small one.

Demonstration of Improved Anomaly Calculation

This post is an application and further explanation of  Roman’s work on improved anomaly trend analysis.  At this post, Roman gave an example of a perfect sine wave with a trend of 0.2C added to it.  By taking the monthly anomaly of the data, steps are introduced on an annual basis.   These steps cause a distortion of trend which are actually unnecessary, however, there is a greater understanding and a little bit of a tricky regression involved(in my opinion-not Roman’s) .  The programming of the regression is absolutely simple in R where the difference between the standard call first and the improved call second are below.

coes = coef(lm(anomalydata~ time))

coes = coef(lm(rawdatat~0+month+time))    #Improved calculation

The first line returns two coefficients for the anomaly regressed against time (standard form) y = ax + b where a(slope) and b(intercept) are returned.   The second example line above, also returns coefficients but there are actually 13 returned.  The function is again y= ax+b, however 12 b’s are returned for a single a.  One  best fit line is created for each month with the only difference between the lines being the offset!

Butterflies – flews?

In case you thought Climategate would settle down the fear mongering, guess what!!

Early butterflies linked to global warming

Researchers say they have proven for the first time that man-made global warming is changing an animal’s life-cycle.

I guess they didn’t read about shrinking fish or sheep, or perhaps the paper on tougher beef – a truly scary prediction.

Roman on Anomaly Trend Regression

I’ve been spamming Roman M’s thread on the correct method to calculate anomaly trend.  It’s a correction for an error in anomaly slope calculations by least square fit.  The method of correction is laid out mathematically and in code.  I do enjoy math threads, but when skeptics of AGW (If Roman even is one) make improvements in method and publish them on line, the rest of us in blogland should take notice.  This is the second step forward that Roman has proposed in calculating temperature trend for a global average, in the last two weeks!!  Like the combination of temeprature time series with a seasonal component posts by Roman, it is again a step forward.  After reading the math,it made sense, it then required beating my head on the R code for several hours.  Like good science, the result, openness and method are like a clean glass of water.  No hand waiving about teleconnections or rubbish about moisture feedback is between 2 and 5 times blah, blah… It’s real science with an actual answer that is different from the standard methods of climatology.

Anyway, when I see his thread with only ten comments – half mine, it’s a shame.  If you’re interested in why some of us get so excited about science and math, check it out.

Anomaly Regression – Do It Right!

Anomaly Aversion

This is just a short post on why people like Roman and Tamino are interested in calculating the offset for temperature anomaly calculation and why I’m interested in applying it to global temperature.  I hope it can put to rest some of the anomaly aversion that exists in skeptics.

I’ve already finished the global temperature calculations and am just working on documentation and verification.  My guess though is that there are some readers who don’t understand the obsessive efforts in offsetting anomalies.   First, there are plenty of people who consider themselves to be data purists, who sometimes state that only raw temperature should be used to calculate trend.  In their view, anomaly is a processing step and is therefore suspect.  While the purity and minimal processing is a fantastic goal, the anomaly calculation is required to compute accurate trends when data starts and stops at different points in a seasonal cycle and is equally critical when data is missing.  Consider that a typical temperature curve looks like Figure 1.

Figure 1 - Typcial GHCN temperature station

You can see the gaps in the series.  When you consider that we’re trying to detect tenths of a degree, it’s not difficult to imagine that if gaps mostly happen at the tops of the pseudo-sine wave your trend will be altered.  Therefore, it’s appropriate to find another method.  In this post ‘anomaly’ is calculated by averaging all the Jan’s together, all the Feb’s …etc.. and subtracting the monthly average.  The result of anomaly calculation is shown in Figure 2.

Science be Damned

Ok, the math post which seems to suck hours of time isn’t done yet.  It’s not even that amazing, except that it’s fun to try and improve a temperature series.  I found this on line from a link in email, I don’t agree with some of Lord Monkton’s science, it seems to me that he’s got a higher calling the same way as the leftist scientists do, but with that said, I’m a huge fan of his.  Advocacy and denial are two sides of the same coin, however the denial side is all about getting government the heck out of our pockets and that is  a big deal.   The advocates are far more numerous, or at least they were.

Lord Monkton is moderated in his views on warming to within the bounds of most science though which helps do a post on him.  In this short video, he warns of the next steps of the future world overlords.  For the new guys here, this isn’t some kind of goofy fantasy by a crazed conservative. The Copenhagenites took the time to write it down and as far as it reads to me, they  really are intending a global unelected government with powers of taxation, limitation and enforcement.

The original copenhagen proposal is here - http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2009/10/un-fccc-copenhagen-2009.pdf

Someone did a nice post on it here – All Governments are Created Equal?

Monkton is warning us that the push is coming again and climate science doesn’t care what the data says, my belief is that they will discuss the climategate corruption (in incredibly false terms).  This is not the kind of movement that truth or justice can stop.  They will exist forever  – even if they get everything they want, they will find something else.  Anyway, you already know my views, however this whole deal is nothing compared to the health care bribery going on.

I’ll try to get the science post up for the morning.

Wierd Review Literachur

More wierd review literature in this guest post from Climatequotes.

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IPCC coordinating lead author’s own paper falsely cited in AR4

Adil Najam

Yesterday I posted about a contributing author’s own paper being incorrectly cited in the AR4. However, I have now found something worse than that: a Coordinating Lead Author’s own paper has been falsely cited.

Recently I posted about an interesting claim and comment made in the AR4. In the Second Order Draft (SOD), the following claim appears (page 43, lines 34-36):

Relatively few NGOs are directly accountable to members in the same way that governments are to voters or businesses are to shareholders, raising further questions about the extent to which their claims to the mantle of civil society are justified.

The claim had no citation, which led an expert reviewer to make the following comment, Comment 12-189 (page 78):

NOAA- Here comes the flood.

This post is copied from the NOAA site linked here. Apparently the above average snowfall is going to create the expected springtime results.

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NOAA: Imminent Flood Threat in Midwest, South and East Also at Risk

March 16, 2010

Major flooding has begun and is forecast to continue through spring in parts of the Midwest according to NOAA’s National Weather Service. The South and East are also more susceptible to flooding as an El Niño influenced winter left the area soggier than usual.

Spring 2010 Flood Risk map.

High resolution (Credit: NOAA)

Overall, more than a third of the contiguous United States has an above average flood risk –– with the highest threat in the Dakotas, Minnesota and Iowa, including along the Red River Valley where crests could approach the record levels set just last year.

Supporting the forecast of imminent Midwest flooding is a snowpack more extensive than in 2009 and containing in excess of 10 inches of liquid water in some locations. Until early March, consistently cold temperatures limited snow melt and runoff. These conditions exist on top of: above normal streamflows; December precipitation that was up to four times above average; and the ground which is frozen to a depth as much as three feet below the surface.

Believers

Reader MMLJ left a comment about this article on the last thread.  I doubt this post will generate much disagreement here but John Quiggen’s blog has attempted to place the blame for climategate on Steve McIntyre while simultaneously claiming nothing was done wrong.  I would have commented there but he closed his comment section for some reason.  Of course his arguments are silly, but it shows just how far people are  willing  to go to cover up the corruption and save their global warming baby.     Click his title below for a link to the whole article –

Climategate:The smoking gun

Looking over the evidence that is now available, I think there is enough to point to Steven McIntyre as the person, along with the actual hacker or leaker, who bears primary moral responsibility for the crime.

It is always the left who is so ready to blame others people for their actions.  It’s like in the US when someone steals your car or gun and uses it in a crime,  there is a push to blame the owner of the car or gun – especially when the criminal gets away.  News flash John, Steve can no more control these outside people than you can turn back time and make Climategate go away.

More Impact from Climategate

Having the blog on which Climategate was noticed is kind of fun.  At my request, my immediate family and friends don’t tell people about it though – haha.  It didn’t stop the big-brother British anti-terror cops from finding me.  Everyone in the media assumed that the tAV crowd doesn’t believe in warming at all, and despite my efforts the media portrayed the whole thing as a denier site/sites.  Anyway, I love reading stories like this, it makes all the huge effort over the past year and a half worth while.

Minister’s global warming nursery rhyme adverts banned for overstating the risks

However, most of the readers at tAV were already involved in reading global warming science, and many were more so than myself.  I suspect there are enough of you that the emails didn’t contain surprises, only proof of the corruption we knew existed.  There is this quote at the end of the article.

The emails, which dealt a severe blow to the credibility of environmental science, were seized upon by global warming skeptics as evidence that academics were massaging the figures.

Since the leak, belief in global warming has fallen from 41 per cent to 26 per cent.

I don’t really know if Climategate emails had an effect on global warming of informed readers, but I wonder….

Symptoms in America

I’m back from the trade shows and fully exhausted.   This time I was in St. Louis during a time when Barack Hussein visited.  I’m told he discussed health care and there were dueling protests between two distinctly different classes of individual on either side of the street.  St. Louis is not in good condition by the way, we were in the nice part of town and it was frightening to say the least.

Anyway, this is a political commentary and not a good one so if you don’t like my conservative vent’s — sorry – don’t read it.   I will be working on temperature data tomorrow today now but I learned something this week and it needs to be said by someone.    First, there is a definite but slight recovery in in industry at this moment.  Good news.

The second, is that industry is absolutely angry at what BHO and the extremists in charge are doing.  Now understand, these include rank and file union and non-union workers, equipment builders, sales people, engineers, corporate heads and owners alike.  The warriors of capitalism who provide and feed the world.  This IS your food, it IS the funding which drives your banking jobs, health care and the rest.  These are the people who know what it takes to get a job done, how to build a power line, what is required to move product, plumb a building, fill a pothole, how proper equipment is made.

They are universally afraid, and have learned a lesson from this economy which is unstated in media.

Banned in China

For some of the new crowd here, tAV is considered a banned site (on and off) in China.  I was able to get to WUWT but not tAV, then on a different trip, could get to both.  It appears our free speech labor friends overseas see all of blogland as a threat now.  It’s funny though, the Asian culture is so enamored with technology that when you’re over there, it seems like all of them know how to get around the blocks.  I wonder if Real Climate, Climate Progress or Tamino had any problems.

David Jay said

Jeff:

If you have reason to visit the middle kingdom again, make sure you have a VPN or remote desktop set up. WordPress is back on the naughty list.

I am only able to get to wordpress sites (tAV, WUWT, CA) though my remote desktop.

Regards

Improved Offset Temperature Calculation

Roman has been working into the wee hours of the night in order to provide climatology with an improved method for anomaly calculation.  As before it uses seasonal information to calculate an optimum offset. It’s exciting to me because it represents one more of the true improvements coming from skeptical blogland.  His post is here.

Of course he’s going to have to publish it somewhere now.

I’ll be out of contact often over the next few days, tradeshows again, but there will be some posts done in the late hours at hotels I’m sure.

IPCC Ignored Wildfire Corrections — 3 times

Three times the IPCC was warned that the obviously, blatantly idiotic global warming wildfire claims in the 3000 page AR4 report were actually idiotic.  Three times the warnings were ignored.

Climatequotes – click the headline below to go to the article.

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IPCC reviewers pointed out wildfire mistake, ignored by authors

In a previous post I mentioned that the IPCC’s claim of reduced tourism due to wildfires (section 14.2.7 of WGII) didn’t match their source. They claimed there were millions of dollars in tourism losses, but their source did not make that claim. One of the reasons the claim was false was explained in their own source, a British Columbia Tourism newsletter. It said: