Schizo Sea Ice
Posted by Jeff Id on April 28, 2010
Confusion about sea ice still reigns as some climate scientists still haven’t got the news about climategate. Business as usual seems to be the mantra amongst most, while others have clearer vision of what science should be.
The NSIDC released its report on sea ice which shows this plot.
This plot and associated post has changed my once good view of the NSIDC. Previously they seemed slightly biased but within the bounds of reason, this post on the state of sea ice has changed my mind. They pasted observations on pre1978 data to continue to make the sea ice appear to be melting. Since we currently have average sea ice conditions, seeing them tack on weak data to continue the alarm is as obnoxious a trick as any ‘hide the decline’.
Here is an image of the good data from Cryosphere:
Everything before this graph as shown by the NSIDC is bull, and they know it but they put this statement which a layperson (more lay than myself) would find little information in.
While the pre-satellite records are not as reliable, their trends are in good general agreement with the satellite record and indicate that Arctic sea ice extent has been declining since at least the early 1950s.
More Mannian words have never been written. Gee we like the appearance of even more decline, even though global warming didn’t start until after 1978. Like I said above though, some scientists are getting the message.
“We found that these patterns can explain in large part why the ice cover decreased so much more rapidly after 2000. Wind patterns depend on the position of major high-pressure and low-pressure systems. We discovered that months with very little ice cover and high temperatures corresponded with crucial variations in the wind patterns,” explains Mr Sorteberg.
Which is something we’ve been saying here for a long time now.
“The dramatic changes in the extent of Arctic sea ice in recent years have mainly been caused by atmospheric circulation patterns that have tended to reduce ice cover, combined with a slow process of climate change. Variations in the circulation patterns are part of the natural fluctuations in the weather. In certain periods these fluctuations will reinforce human-made changes, while at other times they will mask them,” says Mr Sorteberg.
Guh, yup. Change in global sea ice from Cryosphere, as confirmed many times by myself is below.
You can see that global sea ice has achieved a net change of about zero in over 30 years of global warming.
Anyway, on the NSIDC side of the universe other scientists are so concerned about melting research funds climate they have discovered that the massive loss of sea ice is going to propagate inter-animal relations.
UAF Marine Biology Professor Mike Castellini agrees the likelihood of mixed-species breeding is growing in the far north. He said many uncertainties remain, but they’re underscored by a simple fact — Arctic animals are coming into contact with each other more than at any other time in the past 10,000 years.
My BS meter got pegged by that one. Wow, they will say anything won’t they.
The coverage area of summer sea ice in the Arctic has actually increased slightly in each of the last few years, although it remains about 25 percent below the 30-year average for the area, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. NOAA projects that the Arctic could be ice-free in the summer within 30 years.
I suppose that saying that last summer was 25% lower than the average isn’t a lie but saying ‘remains below’ fails the unbiased test fairly spectacularly. Below is a plot of the ice anomaly offset by average area. Widely hated and scorned by believers, this plot puts the anomaly magnitude into context. It ends about a month ago and probably just crossed the red line at some point this month. This plot is the same data as figure 1 of this post but the red line is average for the full timespan of the data so it’s offset slightly lower relative to the data than cryosphere.
For more sea ice stuff, including some great videos of sea ice ;) see Islands of Reason.
Finally, from the article linked above:
Significantly, the researchers state that the extent of the ice cover around the North Pole should not be used as a barometer for whether climate change is affecting the ice coverage, and whether climate change is occurring in the Arctic at all. They also believe that the recent decrease in ice cover should not be used as an indicator that the Arctic will be ice free in 10 to 20 years.
Thank god that there is reason in climate science. It really is like a breath of fresh air compared to the ‘polar bears in bikinis’ propaganda. The NSIDC should be ashamed of their state of the cryoshpere article.