the Air Vent

Because the world needs another opinion

SST has dropped below zero anomaly.

Posted by Jeff Id on May 17, 2010

From Bob Tisdale’s blog.

He also has some other posts showing the current SST pattern.

—————

NINO3.4 SST Anomalies Are Now Negative

I just took a quick look at NINO3.4 SST Anomalies, and for the week centered on Wednesday May 12th, they’ve dropped into negative numbers: -0.075 deg C.

NINO3.4 SST Anomalies – Week Of May 12, 2010

SOURCE

OI.v2 SST anomaly data is available through the NOAA NOMADS website:
http://nomad3.ncep.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/pdisp_sst.sh?lite=



9 Responses to “SST has dropped below zero anomaly.”

  1. Jeff: Thanks for picking it up. I wondered where the traffic came from. (Hmmm. Must be end-a-sentence-with-a-preposition day.)

  2. Kenneth Fritsch said

    It might be informative for some readers here to point out the significance of the El Nino 3.4 index and what it may portend.

  3. Jeff Id said

    #3 There are a lot of quiet readers these days. Not just at tAV although views are still high.

    I’m nowhere near the expert on SST that Bob is, but ocean water holds something like 2000 times the energy of the thin gas layer everyone worries about (I’ve never calculated this myself and the number sounds low). Liquid water expands very little when heated, this makes it only slightly more buoyant than cold water. Therefore winds can cause deep cold water to be exposed to the air relatively easily.

    With continuous water/wind flow, the waters in the ocean surface pile to the continental shorelines exposing deep cooler water over large areas of the middle ocean. The primary heat transfer equations between the ocean surface and the atmosphere look like this:

    heat(temperature transfer) =(some non-changing value) X air ocean contact surface Area X temperature difference between surface and atmosphere.

    I did enjoy thermo classes but the equations get far more complex when wind flow and other details become factors.

    So when the sea surface changes from warm to cool over a large area, we’re all going to get colder, no matter what CO2 we chuck into the thin, rarefied, low mass gas we all breath.

  4. intrepid_wanders said

    Maybe Bob is trying to line up the 12 year cycles (Nino1998 to Nino2010). If you offset the 2008 low through 2010 (+1), it looks interesting, but other that… hey, it was a stab. Bob, you are going to have to speak up. If it was a slip up, inquiring mind would like to know.

  5. intrepid_wanders wrote, “Maybe Bob is trying to line up the 12 year cycles (Nino1998 to Nino2010). If you offset the 2008 low through 2010 (+1), it looks interesting, but other that… hey, it was a stab. Bob, you are going to have to speak up. If it was a slip up, inquiring mind would like to know.”

    I have no idea what you’re talking about with 12 year cycles, offsets, or slip ups.

    The graph represents the sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies of the NINO3.4 region of the central equatorial Pacific, coordinates 5S-5N, 170W-120W. NINO3.4 SST anomalies are a common index of the ocean side of ENSO; that’s El Nino-Southern Oscillation, BTW. I posted the graph to show that not only has the 2009/10 El Nino ended, but that NINO3.4 SST anomalies have dropped below zero. You may have no interest in it, or what it represents, but apparently others do, since you find this post here at tAV.

    Regards

  6. Kenneth Fritsch wrote, “It might be informative for some readers here to point out the significance of the El Nino 3.4 index and what it may portend.”

    As noted above in my reply to intrepid_wanders, NINO3.4 SST anomalies are a common index of the ocean side of ENSO. The graph simply shows that not only has the 2009/10 El Nino ended, but that NINO3.4 SST anomalies have dropped below zero.

    Regards

  7. j ferguson said

    Well here I am with the “meanest understanding.”

    Do the anomalies dropping below zero signify how resounding the end of El Nino (2009/10) is or are there additional inferences?

  8. Jeff Id said

    #7, That’s all I got out of it. We’ve seen global temperatures rising for some months now, widely attributed to el nino. The sudden drop in surface temperatures means we’re heading into a milder period where we should again see global temps drop. Maybe not the overly corrected GISS temperatures but the rest for sure!

  9. intrepid_wanders said

    Thanks for the clarification Mr. Tisdale. I was just like others trying to see the pattern in the information, not know at the time it was just an event crossing (El Nino to La Nina).

    But oddly enough, it was a more significant event, Dr. Spencer sees the same on the pressure…

    http://www.drroyspencer.com/

    One more datapoint for a “trend” ;)

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