Amending the Past
Posted by Jeff Condon on June 20, 2011
Guest post by Pat Frank
“Congress shall make no law … abridging the freedom of speech or of the press…”
The analysis showed that a cosine+linear fit to the global average surface air temperature anomalies between 1880-2010 pretty much accounted for the entire trend. When the cosine was removed from the anomalies, the residual trend showed no sign of the accelerating climate warming required by AGW.
Tamino’s criticism consisted of three parts:
1. “there aren’t nearly enough “cycles” to show that global temperature is following a cyclic pattern.”
2. The cosine_linear fit had no physical basis.
3. Arbitrary alternative fits yield a statistically better fit.
I learned about Tamino’s criticisms around June 4, and posted major replies, June 6 and June 12, showing his criticisms were meritless. I also posted replies to other commentators. Tamino properly posted my replies and intercalated his responses into them.
Tamino’s entire analytical response to my June 12 reply consisted of calling me an idiot. He offered no response at all to my reply on June 13.
The snipped June 13 reply included a link to a Fourier power spectral density (PSD) analysis of the global average air temperature anomaly trend, offered by poster “Bart” at WUWT. Here it is:
This analysis is a frequency analysis that looks for sinusoidal periods within serial data. The strong signal at 0.015 year^-1 says there is a ~65-year cycle within the air temperature anomaly trend.
Bart’s PSD analysis completely and independently corroborated the 60-year cycle found by my cosine+linear fits to the HadCRU and GISS 130-year air temperature anomaly trends.
The snipped response also included a link to a paper by McCabe, et al., 2008, which analyzed an 820-year record of precipitation in Yellowstone, Montana, USA. Their Figure 1 showed the precipitation record and a PSD analysis of it. Here is their Figure:
They found 20-year and 60-year cycles in the 820-year precipitation record, which they attributed to long-term variation in SSTs. These periods are identical to the frequencies Bart found in 130 years of HADCRUT3v air temperature anomalies.
Tamino snipped the post showing analyses that perfectly corroborated the cosine fits. The snipped analyses made mush of his entire objection.
Did Tamino snip the post because he couldn’t stand a definitive refutation? We can’t know. However, we can know that, unknowingly or not, Tamino imposed his full censorship at the appearance of an embarrassing contradiction.
The header on my post now comes into relevance. Tamino, of course, doesn’t represent Congress. He is free to censor as he likes on his blog. But I abused no standards. His censorship was whimsical. Censorship contravenes freedom of speech and of the press. It is the instrument of tyranny.
Censorship as Tamino practiced it in this instance violates every spirit of the Constitution, of freedom itself, and of the free rational exchange of ideas. He has implicitly supported this principle: that the open reasoned debate of critical questions can be hamstrung in favor of a sincere prejudice. George III would approve. Tamino’s “Open Mind”: an unintentional irony.