the Air Vent

Because the world needs another opinion

Penguin Divination

Posted by Jeff Id on June 24, 2012

Climate science hasn’t changed a bit since climategate. Sure there are now some climate scientists trying to find a middle ground between insane liberal energy activism and reality, but why is anything other than simple reality necessary? A slow path to Euro-crazy politics is still the wrong path. Case in point, a couple of months ago, a study of the Emperor penguin population came out in which satellite estimates show that there are over a half million of the beasts roaming the icy wasteland. The ever-accurate environmental studies stated previously that there were only two or three hundered thousand. So that is good news right?

Naw, it is just more penguins to worry about. The news reports simply have more to say about the future of the penguins and why our SUV’s are killing them.

More recently, another article came out and captured substantially more press, unsurprisingly, the now half million Emperor penguins are in danger of complete extinction at captitalist hands. This paper is chock full of brilliant mushmatics including climate model projections in combination with models of how penguin colonies will respond. It is worth mentioning that famous names like Mark Serreze, an ever stable AGW advocate, is signed on as a coauthor of this beauty. I’ve taken the time to read through it once, and am certainly the dumber for it.

They came up with functions for the survivability of penguins based on sea ice concentrations that have very steep drop off in sea ice concentration ranges for which no real observational long term data can exist. Then they project this drop-off in survival using 5 preferred climate models which have universally predicted Antarctic sea ice doom. The ability to draw conclusions a century out from this methodology is ridiculous on its face, but we know in enviroscience that unknowns are regularly waved away into magically sound conclusion. What makes this mush-science special, besides the fact that Antarctic sea ice is NOT declining, is the huge over the top press it is getting.

Melting Sea Ice Could Decimate Emperor Penguins

Melting sea ice trouble for emperor penguins

June 22 News: Researchers Project ‘Huge Decline’ In Emperor

Global warming stamping out penguin population

Emperor Penguins at Risk of Facing Extinction

Emperor Penguin on the verge of Extinction, Antarctica ice melting

As Antarctica melts, Emperor penguins struggle for survival

Melting ice in Antarctica threatens Emperor penguins: Study

Antarctic sea ice loss threatening emperor penguins

Emperor penguins at risk in sea ice

Penguins May Lose Empire to Climate Change

Melting Sea Ice Threatens Emperor Penguins

Penguins Face Population Decline Due To Climate Change

Emperor penguins numbers are falling because of melting ice caps

Global Warming Causing Extinction Of Penguins In Antarctica: Report

Now any normal person would find these titles insane on their face.   Seriously, most of these aren’t supported by the study in any way whatsoever.   Not that the authors are helping the writers to be more reasonable:

 

A multi-hundred billion dollar industry known as environmentalism is not going to be seriously interrupted by the exposure or discussion of their motivations.  The human race has shown no propensity to reject the enviro-stupidity fed them by the liberal media outlets. 

As a monument to general human intellect, the use of a tiny noisy trend in thousands of different decadal datasets to predict numerous century scale disasters has literally become one of the most powerful industries in the world. The mathematical chicken bones give the future, and the people believe!

On and on the inscrutable gears of enviroscience turn. From it all, I have a prediction for the future of the Emperor penguin population which I will not be around to verify. In the year 2100, there will be approximately 500,000 very cold Emperor penguins stomping around the Antarctic, and nearly twice as many scientists as today, still predicting penguin doom.


20 Responses to “Penguin Divination”

  1. A link to the paper is here:

    http://premium.fileden.com/premium/2012/6/20/3318419/gcb2744.pdf

  2. MikeN said

    If the population is decimated, that’s a loss of 10%.

    • mrmethane said

      Um, nope – one tenth left, loss of 90 percent. Innumerate twit.

      • Chuckles said

        From Wikipedia ‘decimation’

        Decimation (Latin: decimatio; decem = “ten”) was a form of military discipline used by officers in the Roman Army to punish mutinous or cowardly soldiers. The word decimation is derived from Latin meaning “removal of a tenth”.[1]

      • Tony Hansen said

        Might I suggest you revisit your military history or schoolboy Latin.
        Either way, MikeN is correct.

        • mrmethane said

          I hereby apologize! For my erroneous statement and my ignorance of latin, despite the tenth-grade anguish, way back when. Sorry, Mike N!

      • M Simon said

        Try again. A Roman division which was decimated due to very bad performance had 1 out of 10 killed. 10%. The mirror is on you buddy. Try having a look.

        • M Simon said

          I shoulda refreshed the page. Ah well. Good on all you who “beat me” to it. And for mrmethane who apologized.

          • steveta_uk said

            He apologised for being wrong, but not for his gratuitous rudeness, the boorish twit.

  3. timetochooseagain said

    “As Antarctica melts” surely requires that “Antarctic” actually is melting, right? IIRC, IPCC projects net ice gain in the interior due to enhanced snowfall. Of course, we know what the trends are at the margins (sea ice) presently are (positive overall) as usual the credibility of these prognostications is 0.0000% give or take 0%

    • it stinks because I can’t find anything in the paper which could be considered ‘information’.

      Even bad papers usually have information.

      I learned nothing either for or against future penguin populations, yet endless press ensued.

      ’twas a stupidizer.

  4. Bob Koss said

    Compare the penguin extinction coverage to the massive amount of media hype this new South Pole station record was given.

    “South Pole New Temperature Record
    Posted: 2012-06-18

    South Pole Station Antarctica

    June 11th: The temperature of -73.8°C/-100.8°F broke the previous minimum temperature record of -73.3°C/-99.9°F set in 1966.”

    http://amrc.ssec.wisc.edu/news/index.php?id=41

    Vostok station holds the world record low at -89.2C., but you’d think this would have attracted media attention. More people have an idea where the South Pole is than Vostok.

  5. Iain Hall said

    Reblogged this on Iain Hall's SANDPIT and commented:
    great piece Jeff and well worth reblogging

  6. omanuel said

    Jeff, the Climategate emails and documents that were released in Nov 2009 and responses by leaders of nations, the news media, and scientific organizations . . .

    Revealed a much greater danger than global warming – a tyrannical, one-world government that evolved after 1945 by repeatedly distorting information on energy (E) stored as mass (m) in the cores of atoms, stars, galaxies, and perhaps some planets.

    http://omanuel.wordpress.com/about/#comment-142

    A one-world government, like that described in the UN’s Agenda 21 [1], might be acceptable, if that government is controlled by the people.

    Perhaps the original intent was noble, . . . to protect world leaders and society from possible destruction by “nuclear fires.”

    But society has advanced since 1945 on a path toward a government that distorts information to control people, like the one George Orwell described in a novel written in 1948 and entitled “1984” [2].

    The battle to restore contact with “reality” in modern science will be as formidable as historic battles against the forces of darkness, described in the

    a.) Bhagavad Gita (Chapter 1) on the field of Kurukshetra
    b.) Bible (1 Samuel, Chapter 17) in the Kingdom of Judah

    Thanks Jeff, for your efforts.

    With kind regards,
    Oliver K. Manuel

    http://www.omatumr.com

    References:

    1. Earth Summit Agenda 21: United Nations core publication on action plans adopted in 1992 to be taken globally, nationally, and locally on the environmental impact of humans): http://www.un.org/esa/dsd/agenda21/

    2. George Orwell, “1984″ (Harcourt Brace Jovanovich, Inc, 1949, First Signet Classic Printing, 1950, 328 pages): http://www.online-literature.com/orwell/1984/

  7. Larry Geiger said

    ” In the year 2100, there will be approximately 500,000 very cold Emperor penguins stomping around the Antarctic, and nearly twice as many scientists as today, still predicting penguin doom.”
    :-)

  8. stan said

    It’s just Monnett’s polar bear study — this time as farce. If a citizen scientist took a mile walk around the neighborhood and found a dead body under a neighbor’s bush, he would conclude that the evidence showed one dead body. If a climate scientist found the dead body after walking a single mile, he would extrapolate the evidence by multiplying the one dead body by the number of miles of road in the USA to derive an estimate of the number of dead bodies on American roads.

  9. At a substantially warmer period around 3000 to 4000 yrs ago, penguins were more abundant:
    Huang, T., Sun, L, Wang, Y., Liu, X., Zhu, R. 2009. Penguin population dynamics for the past 8500 years at Gardner Island, Vestfold Hills. Antarctic Science 21:571-578.

    as were elephant seals:
    Hall, B.L., Hoelzel, A.R., Baroni, C., Denton, G.H., Le Boeuf, B.J., Overturf, B., Topf, A.L. 2006. Holocene elephant seal distribution implies warmer-than-present climate in the Ross Sea. PNAS 103:10213-10217.

  10. dp said

    I watched the video and could feel my intelligence leaving my body. I will not live long enough to recover those lost 4 minutes. Maybe that is how they intend to restore Gaia – 4 minutes at a time via YouTube. Clever, but sinister.

  11. Brian H said

    Your self-sacrifice in reading that tendentious BS is appreciated. I can’t get through more than a few pages.

  12. Brian H said

    Article edit: “a prediciton” prediction

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