the Air Vent

Because the world needs another opinion

Cryosphere at the Air Vent

Posted by Jeff Id on March 23, 2013

All data provided by NSIDC gridded satellite. Compilation by me so errors are mine.  All Y axis units Km^2.

Arctic sea ice area

Arctic sea ice area anomaly

Antarctic sea ice area

Antarctic sea ice area anomaly

Global sea ice area

Global sea ice anomaly

global sea ice offset anomaly

The Antarctic had the second highest sea ice area minimum summer level in 35 years while the Arctic set a record lowest sea ice area minimum this year.

Arctic Minimum Arctic Maximium Antarctic Minimum Antarctic Maximum
1978 13,859,180
1979 5,535,313 15,090,913 1,944,465 14,959,135
1980 5,638,653 14,736,253 1,683,265 15,614,950
1981 5,199,235 14,307,640 1,612,400 15,610,100
1982 5,302,310 14,784,505 1,717,890 15,487,945
1983 5,521,378 14,788,088 1,757,610 15,510,463
1984 4,906,858 14,290,615 1,521,158 14,936,875
1985 5,160,045 14,624,308 1,639,843 15,456,518
1986 5,572,648 14,506,830 1,777,783 14,592,673
1987 5,342,760 14,734,223 1,803,770 15,035,815
1988 5,229,655 14,970,653 1,708,298 15,335,913
1989 4,985,450 14,141,373 1,863,225 15,326,225
1990 4,765,080 14,683,668 2,032,795 15,141,320
1991 4,714,105 14,196,430 1,821,995 15,324,690
1992 5,224,788 14,365,038 1,661,878 15,044,633
1993 4,601,510 14,710,050 1,268,038 15,357,570
1994 4,942,008 14,495,313 2,109,375 15,921,018
1995 4,556,625 14,233,280 2,029,630 15,306,030
1996 5,414,640 13,814,070 1,561,150 15,373,340
1997 5,037,873 14,294,258 1,606,578 15,264,198
1998 4,431,950 14,511,963 1,679,563 15,707,548
1999 4,319,640 14,256,390 1,598,193 15,479,228
2000 4,345,148 13,900,533 1,577,743 16,014,598
2001 4,707,715 14,492,430 2,314,315 15,395,013
2002 4,114,613 14,322,525 1,663,930 14,975,850
2003 4,285,620 14,314,423 2,455,993 15,104,155
2004 4,421,475 13,744,193 2,173,170 15,518,725
2005 4,147,473 13,418,945 1,817,808 15,916,253
2006 4,198,750 13,328,453 1,578,923 15,974,533
2007 3,208,025 13,356,400 1,833,275 16,304,230
2008 3,255,690 14,018,395 2,223,958 15,089,818
2009 3,591,088 13,948,610 1,804,590 16,025,355
2010 3,365,648 13,882,928 1,952,520 16,128,925
2011 2,629,338 13,122,670 1,675,888 15,270,930
2012 2,536,248 13,688,078 1,945,950 16,209,193
2013 13,780,013 2,404,045
maximum 5.64E+06 1.51E+07 2.46E+06 1.63E+07
Minimum 2.54E+06 1.31E+07 1.27E+06 1.39E+07

12 Responses to “Cryosphere at the Air Vent”

  1. Matthew W said

    So, there is a slight downward global trend (Offset by Average Area) based on a starting point that was at the end of a known cold period.

    I’m not going to panic yet !!!

    Funny how the Arctic and Antarctic can balance the planet.

    • Duke C. said

      +1 Matthew W.
      Wonder if it’s possible to tack on some ice core proxies prior to 1978, and plot the entire Holocene? /Mannian sarc off

  2. The AMO is still warm Apr – Oct and not too far above 0 for Nov – Mar

    That would (IMHO) explain Arctic maximums not too far from the mean and record minimums.

    Month / 3 year mean / 5 year mean

    Winter
    11 0.15 0.11
    12 0.13 0.11
    1 0.1 0.07
    2 0.1 0.08
    3 0.15 0.1

    Summer
    4 0.23 0.13
    5 0.29 0.2
    6 0.34 0.29
    7 0.34 0.31
    8 0.41 0.32
    9 0.38 0.3
    10 0.28 0.23

  3. Derek said

    Jeff wrote –
    “All data provided by NSIDC gridded satellite. Compilation by me so errors are mine.”

    To be fair to you Jeff I have little doubt most of the errors will be down to instrument drift / software “issues” of the measurements themselves.

  4. Paul Linsay said

    And the error bars on the measurements are (drum roll here)…?

  5. Robert Austin said

    If your faith is strong and you squint your eyes just so, you can almost see the death spiral manifest in the first graph :)

  6. KevinM said

    I’ve been wondering for a long time, and never got an answer I trust. How high would sea levels rise if all of it, both poles and the peaks of the Himalayas, melted to water?
    Al Gores movie said IIRC it would be 17 feet if just Greenland melted, but I’ve never believed it because Venice Italy existed at a time when Greenland was much greener.
    If there were a good estimate of total ice I could get it by dividing that by the ice/ water volume ratio then dividing by the two-thirds the surface area of the globe. Has anyone here done the work and saved the numbers?

    • HaroldW said

      According to NSIDC, the answer is 70 meters. The Bedmap2 project reports Antarctic ice alone accounts for 58 meters. A paper by Bamber et al. estimated Greenland ice volume at 2.9 million cubic kilometers, equivalent to a sea level rise of about 7.7 m if I’ve done the math right.

    • I have never studied the answer to that question. The poles are just too cold to melt any time in the foreseeable future. If you believe the models are accurate, which they do not appear to be, the worst case warming won’t melt the Antarctic ice in the next hundred years.

  7. Kevin macKay said

    Thanks Harold. By that account Gore’s claim was about right. I understand the scenario is fantastically improbable, but I wanted an upper limit on the proposition.

  8. DeWitt Payne said

    Late to the game, but it looks to me like the seasonal correction for the Arctic anomaly shifted starting in 2007. That’s why you see higher variability for 2007 and on. It’s much smoother if you calculate seasonal correction from the average of 2007-201x where x is 0,1 or 2. Of course you can’t use that seasonal curve pre-2007.

    • Jeff Condon said

      It is interesting because the recent temperature anomaly has changed quite a bit as well. I wonder how common these pattern changes really are.

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