Global warming most extreme predictions of 2009 – Contest
Just what you wanted, a place to deposit all the most extreme predictions by the experts and the media on global warming. With 2009 cooling trend, the experts making the money will be falling over each other to hype their case. It’s sure to bring a landslide of unprecedented catastrophic predictions our way.
Make sure to copy your quote with the persons name who made it and a link to the source.
At the end of the year I’ll narrow them down and we’ll vote in Jan of 2010. Entries will be rated on gloom, doom, disaster and of course raw insanity with preferential treatment given to experts, politicians and news media.
Drowning polar bears need a home!
Jeff Id said
First one goes to Jeff
“We will harness the sun and the winds and the soil to fuel our cars and run our factories.” Obama Inauguration day.
http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5iBfx3pptWzzln8sFIiLQe-YUm9qA
Jeff Id said
Benjamin Olken, an economist at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, said that global warming is not just going to devastate agriculture in developing countries, the link between “high temperatures and poor growth is much stronger than we’d realised.”
http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/Developmental_Issues/Global_warming_could_stifle_economic_political_stability/articleshow/4001633.cms
19 Jan 2009
David Jay said
James Hansen, to President Elect Obama:
“We have only four years left” – to save the world.
BarryW said
“Before the end of Obama’s first term, we will be seeing new record temperatures. I can promise the president that.” — James Hansen
The Guardian
Hal said
“One of the country’s leading climate scientists says there is “a good chance” for a “super El Niño” next winter, a powerful warming in the Pacific Ocean linked to wet winters in the Southwest.
In a draft paper circulated to colleagues, NASA climate researcher James Hansen blames global warming for increasing the chance of extreme El Niños.”
http://ff.org/centers/csspp/library/co2weekly/20060414_02/20060414_05.html
OOPS, this prediction by Hansen already failed (made April 2006)
………………………………………………………………………………………………….
“Given our expectation of the next El Nino beginning in 2009 or 2010,…”
http://climaticidechronicles.org/2009/01/14/nasas-james-hansen-analyzes-2008-surface-air-temperatures-sees-further-warming-ahead/
Maybe he’ll do better this year…or not. This is fun.
ROM said
From “The Australian” newspaper; Jan / 22 / 2009
Prof Brook said it had been thought Antarctica was cooling partly because of the hole in the ozone layer, which allowed the hot air out.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24946572-12377,00.html
ed said
#3 David
I was going to use that quote from Hansen, however after reading the actual letters that he wrote to Holdren and the Obama’s he does not mention anywhere that “we have four years to do anything”. I think the media has appended the four years as being the time that Obama will be in office but Hansen never actuall says that. Link at the following: http://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/mailings/20081229_DearMichelleAndBarack.pdf
Hansen does say: “Barack’s first year or two in office is almost surely our last best chance to get the climate and energy strategy right in time to save the future of our children and grandchildren.”
For AGW “deniers” you can hope ithat a Republican Senate minority will filibuster anything looking like Carbon taxes or a move to stop building or shut down existing coal plants. There may also be enough Democrats with mining constituents or people who just want electricity that may vote to throw a wrench in what Hansen is asking Obama to do.
DJA said
Al Gore “the summer time north Pole will be ice free in five years time”
AH said
Temperature is going down? Well, our efforts over the past 5 years have been effective in reversing 70 years of the Industrial revolution! We are clever!
Jeff Id said
Ok guys, the rules are simple.
Quote – direct no paraphrasing.
Date – time of quote
Author – need the name of the lucky bastard to make such a claim
Link – verification.
How can you have any meat if you don’t eat your pudding?
Jeff Id said
“If current trends continue, forests will become sparser over time,” van Mantgem said. “Simple projections of forest stand structure indicate that average tree age will eventually decrease by half, and this will potentially lead to decreasing average tree size.”
Mantgem
http://www.mercurynews.com/breakingnews/ci_11532237
By Hadley Leggett Mercury News
Posted: 01/22/2009 07:18:58 PM PS
Araucan said
“”“Actually, agreement on climate change, I think, will be easier than agreement on trade,” he (British economist Nicholas Stern) told reporters in Davos. “People understand climate change much better than trade.” ”
http://blogs.reuters.com/davos/2009/01/29/a-climate-deal-easier-than-trade/
Jeff Id said
We’re looking at a scenario where there’s no more agriculture in California,’ Steven Chu says. He sees education as a means to combat the threat.
Chu Feb 09
http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/washingtondc/la-me-warming4-2009feb04,0,567052.story
“I don’t think the American public has gripped in its gut what could happen,” he said. “We’re looking at a scenario where there’s no more agriculture in California.” And, he added, “I don’t actually see how they can keep their cities going” either.
AEGeneral said
I have found a true gem this morning. Problem is I refuse to pay for this garbage, so I’ll have to pull the quote from the press release:
Source: Science Magazine (subscription required)
Authors: Jerry X. Mitrovica, Natalya Gomez, and Peter U. Clark
Science 6 February 2009 323: 753 [DOI: 10.1126/science.1166510]
Scientists say the collapse of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet would have such profound effects it would shift the planet’s rotation, sending a bulge of water into the Northern Hemisphere.
The enormous ice sheet, which many experts believe could collapse as the climate warms, is so heavy that as it melts it “will actually cause the Earth’s rotation axis to shift rather dramatically,” reports a team led by geophysicist Jerry Mitrovica, at the University of Toronto.
http://www.canada.com/melt+shift+earth+rotation/1260349/story.html
Vinny Burgoo said
“Before the end of Obama’s first term, we will be seeing new record temperatures. I can promise the president that.”
Published 19th January 2009
James Hansen, in an interview with The Guardian.
He’s talking about global average temperatures, presumably GISTEMP.
Vinny Burgoo said
The URL went missing. Sorry! I’ll try again.
“Before the end of Obama’s first term, we will be seeing new record temperatures. I can promise the president that.”
Published 19th January 2009
James Hansen, in an interview with The Guardian.
He’s talking about global average temperatures, presumably GISTEMP.
page48 said
Abstract in Nature Geoscience
Link:
http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/v2/n2/abs/ngeo420.html
Long-term ocean oxygen depletion in response to carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels
Gary Shaffer1,2,3, Steffen Malskær Olsen3,4 & Jens Olaf Pepke Pedersen3,5
Ongoing global warming could persist far into the future, because natural processes require decades to hundreds of thousands of years to remove carbon dioxide from fossil-fuel burning from the atmosphere1, 2, 3. Future warming may have large global impacts including ocean oxygen depletion and associated adverse effects on marine life, such as more frequent mortality events4, 5, 6, 7, 8, but long, comprehensive simulations of these impacts are currently not available. Here we project global change over the next 100,000 years using a low-resolution Earth system model9, and find severe, long-term ocean oxygen depletion, as well as a great expansion of ocean oxygen-minimum zones for scenarios with high emissions or high climate sensitivity. We find that climate feedbacks within the Earth system amplify the strength and duration of global warming, ocean heating and oxygen depletion. Decreased oxygen solubility from surface-layer warming accounts for most of the enhanced oxygen depletion in the upper 500 m of the ocean. Possible weakening of ocean overturning and convection lead to further oxygen depletion, also in the deep ocean. We conclude that substantial reductions in fossil-fuel use over the next few generations are needed if extensive ocean oxygen depletion for thousands of years is to be avoided.
Jim Owen said
Page48 beat me to it – but here’s an alternate link anyway -
http://blog.wired.com/wiredscience/2009/01/futureoceans.html
Climate Change Could Choke Oceans for 100,000 Years
movielib said
http://uk.reuters.com/article/usTopNews/idUKTRE51O5EU20090225
James Lovelock:
James Lovelock, 89, famous for his Gaia theory of the Earth being a kind of living organism, said higher temperatures will turn parts of the world into desert and raise sea levels, flooding other regions.
His apocalyptic theory foresees crop failures, drought and death on an unprecedented scale. The population of this hot, barren world could shrink from about seven billion to one billion by 2100 as people compete for ever-scarcer resources.
“It will be death on a grand scale from famine and lack of water,” Lovelock told Reuters in an interview on Wednesday. “It could be a reduction to a billion (people) or less.”
By 2040, temperatures in European cities will rise to an average of 110 Fahrenheit (43 Celsius) in summer, the same as Baghdad and parts of Europe in the 2003 heatwave.
“The land will gradually revert to scrub and desert. You can look at as if the Sahara were steadily moving into Europe. It’s not just Europe; the whole world will be changing in that way.”
Antonio San said
This circular reasoning prize:
“No specific studies have attributed reduced relative humidity in Australia to anthropogenic climate change, but it is consistent with increased temperatures and reduced rainfall, expected due to climate change in southern Australia.”
And this one for accuracy of prediction:
“An increase in fire danger in Australia is likely to be associated with a reduced interval between fires, increased fire intensity, a decrease in fire extinguishments and faster fire spread. In south-east Australia, the frequency of very high and extreme fire danger days is likely to rise 4-25% by 2020 and 15-70% by 2050.”
David Karoly, Professor of Meteorology at U of Melbourne
Real Climate feb. 16, 2009
http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2009/02/bushfires-and-climate/langswitch_lang/fr#comment-112816
Antonio San said
“An increase in fire danger in Australia is likely to be associated with a reduced interval between fires, increased fire intensity, a decrease in fire extinguishments and faster fire spread. In south-east Australia, the frequency of very high and extreme fire danger days is likely to rise 4-25% by 2020 and 15-70% by 2050.”
Professor David Karoly, University of Melbourne
Real Climate
http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2009/02/bushfires-and-climate/langswitch_lang/fr#comment-112816
Jeff Id said
#21, That is almost an insane quote.
good stuff.
Stephen Brown said
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2009/feb/15/james-hansen-power-plants-coal
“The climate is nearing tipping points. Changes are beginning to appear and there is a potential for explosive changes, effects that would be irreversible, if we do not rapidly slow fossil-fuel emissions over the next few decades. As Arctic sea ice melts, the darker ocean absorbs more sunlight and speeds melting. As the tundra melts, methane, a strong greenhouse gas, is released, causing more warming. As species are exterminated by shifting climate zones, ecosystems can collapse, destroying more species.
The public, buffeted by weather fluctuations and economic turmoil, has little time to analyse decadal changes. How can people be expected to evaluate and filter out advice emanating from those pushing special interests? How can people distinguish between top-notch science and pseudo-science?
Those who lead us have no excuse – they are elected to guide, to protect the public and its best interests. They have at their disposal the best scientific organisations in the world, such as the Royal Society and the US National Academy of Sciences. Only in the past few years did the science crystallise, revealing the urgency. Our planet is in peril. If we do not change course, we’ll hand our children a situation that is out of their control. One ecological collapse will lead to another, in amplifying feedbacks.”
Hansen on coal.
Stephen Brown said
Now ass-wiping causes Global Warming.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2009/feb/26/toilet-roll-america
John F. Pittman said
“”As the tundra melts, methane, a strong greenhouse gas, is released, causing more warming. As species are exterminated by shifting climate zones, ecosystems can collapse, destroying more species.”" This assertation has been shown to be false, first empirically in the 1940’s, and then by computer modelling and game theory starting in the 1950’s. All species except the rarest of the rare have means to propogate far beyond the origination point. In other words, tundra species, not the rest of the world. Strange though, that most of these species have been known to be extant and living millenia ago, even when the world was much warmer than predicted by the IPCC for at least 200 years from present.
In biology/ecology one studies reproduction strategies. One is propogation dissemination. There are different strategies for dissemination of the species. Some are windblown; some use animals. In fact, one of the more clever adaptations is where the seed HAS to be digested in order to reach full germination potential (the outer cover is too thick). The animal that is eating is used to spread the seeds as it hungers and hunts for more to eat. The animal becomes an intelligent vector for dissemination. This alarmist would have you believe that species, most of whom expierence an annual swing of 40C, most of whom have mechanisms to move or propagate on the order of 100 miles annually, cannot withstand a 3C rise in a century, or approximately 1 mile annually poleward. This is alarmist claptrap at its worst. In fact, it shows the typical unscientific method of thinking. They throw out over 100 years of scientific work (since Darwin) on how species actually evolve and propogate to try to convince non-biologists that the sky is falling.
DeWitt Payne said
David Ashton said
The BBC National News ran one of their regular global warming alarmist features last week, in which was presented a map of the British Isles in year 3000, if we did not cut our GHG emissions. Needless to say, the map showed the area of our isles to be about 25% less, due to inundation from higher sea levels.
The article also said “Experts are warning that the UK could face major flooding and tropical storms by the year 3000.”
The report originated from the Tyndall Centre for Climate Change, the study having been carried out at the University of East Anglia, the lead author was Dr Tim Lenton.
Meanwhile the associated British Met. Office is having problems deciding whether next weeks precipitation will fall as rain or snow.
The UK Environment Agency were proud to announce that this was first study to look at the impact of climate change beyond the end of this century.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/4720104.stm
Layman Lurker said
#23 and #24
Good Posts Stephen. A new special interest to delude citizens with psuedo science: Big Oil, Big Coal, Big….Toilet Paper!
Hal said
#27
You can’t lose the contest with that prediction find, and if you win, you won’t be able to enjoy it.
Funny stuff, though.
“Experts are warning that the UK could face major flooding and tropical storms by the year 3000.”
Who, I wonder are these “experts warning”? Are there really more than one idiot being paid to put out such drivel?
Araucan said
One other from the Met Office :
Peter Stott, Climate Scientist at the Met Office, said: “Despite the cold winter this year, the trend to milder and wetter winters is expected to continue, with snow and frost becoming less of a feature in the future.
“The famously cold winter of 1962/63 is now expected to occur about once every 1,000 years or more, compared with approximately every 100 to 200 years before 1850.”
source : http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/co…..90225.html
Antonio San said
This one I shall translate but is not a prediction, just an explanation for the cold, snowy winter in France 2008/2009 by Yves Miserey journalist in Le Figaro:
“the cold won over this winter because at the Caribbean level, the La Nina train of waves that came from Alaska entered in resonnance at the beginning of winter with the North Atlantic Oscillation NAO and a little later with the atlantic ridge; “The mecanism is extremely complex” warns Jean Pierre Ceron, climatologiste for meteofrance.”
=====
“Le froid l’a emporté cet hiver parce qu’au niveau des Caraïbes, le train d’onde de la Nina venu d’Alaska est entré en résonance au début de l’hiver avec l’oscillation nord-atlantique (NAO) et, un peu plus tard, avec la dorsale atlantique. «Le mécanisme est extrêmement complexe», avertit Jean-Pierre Céron, climatologue à Météo France.”
Rob said
Flash Gordon,I love you, but we only have 14 hours to save the world.
Page48 said
Here’s a good one:
Title: Global warming linked to gravity
Link:
http://www.vancouversun.com/news/Global+warming+linked+gravity/1175680/story.html
Sample of contents:
Sea levels will rise at varying rates around the world because of a quirk of the earth’s gravity linked to global warming, a leading glaciologist said.
TCO said
What’s your criticism of the gravity connection. Just general outrage? Or some actual targeted insight?
Layman Lurker said
Saw this at Lucia’s and I figure I’ve got the winner right here (just mail me the cheque right now):
“Ethical Extraterrestrials, the Global Oxygen Supply and Big Oil
by Dr. John Singh
Alleged humanoid ethical extraterrestrial from the ‘Ummo’ planet.
Editorial reference, LINK .
What happens when humans continue to pursue a capitalist economic system, that destroys vital oxygen-producing organisms from phytoplankton, to trees in fragile rainforest ecosystems? That is an easy one, yeh. The result would be a decreasing supply of oxygen in Earth’s atmosphere, in relationship to other toxic gases. The greed-driven Petroleum-based economies of the Western World has put humanity and other life much closer to the brink, than what “mainstream” environmental groups would care to admit.
The Petroleum-based economies carry the cost of starving the Earth of vital oxygen, eventually making our planet’s inhospitable to humans, and other biological organisms. How do you like the thought of a future of dead oceans, and humans having to rely on oxygen machines that are supplied by the same group of corporations which are responsible for destroying Earth’s oxygen supply in the first place? But, after all, isn’t that what our capitalist system is all about? That is, they create layers of exploitation on top of exploitation in pursuit of avarice, and insatiable commercial profit, and ego-driven power?”
“Alex Collier, an alleged contactee of alleged Ethical Extraterrestrials suggests that our planet Earth is at a near critical Oxygen level.”
http://www.agoracosmopolitan.com/home/Frontpage/2009/01/23/03050.html
Layman Lurker said
You can “stick a fork” in this contest right now. It’s over. Might as well just mail me the check. I saw this at Lucia’s and followed the link. ET’s have been contacting certain humans with prophetic insights into our future:
“Ethical Extraterrestrials, the Global Oxygen Supply and Big Oil
by Dr. John Singh
What happens when humans continue to pursue a capitalist economic system, that destroys vital oxygen-producing organisms from phytoplankton, to trees in fragile rainforest ecosystems? That is an easy one, yeh. The result would be a decreasing supply of oxygen in Earth’s atmosphere, in relationship to other toxic gases. The greed-driven Petroleum-based economies of the Western World has put humanity and other life much closer to the brink, than what “mainstream” environmental groups would care to admit.
The Petroleum-based economies carry the cost of starving the Earth of vital oxygen, eventually making our planet’s inhospitable to humans, and other biological organisms. How do you like the thought of a future of dead oceans, and humans having to rely on oxygen machines that are supplied by the same group of corporations which are responsible for destroying Earth’s oxygen supply in the first place? But, after all, isn’t that what our capitalist system is all about? That is, they create layers of exploitation on top of exploitation in pursuit of avarice, and insatiable commercial profit, and ego-driven power?”
http://www.agoracosmopolitan.com/home/Frontpage/2009/01/23/03050.html
Layman Lurker said
http://www.agoracosmopolitan.com/home/Frontpage/2009/01/23/03050.html
I saw this at Lucia’s and I figure this one is the winner. Yep “stick a fork in it” it’s all over. Might as well just mail me the check right now.
From Dr. John Singh:
“What happens when humans continue to pursue a capitalist economic system, that destroys vital oxygen-producing organisms from phytoplankton, to trees in fragile rainforest ecosystems? That is an easy one, yeh. The result would be a decreasing supply of oxygen in Earth’s atmosphere, in relationship to other toxic gases. The greed-driven Petroleum-based economies of the Western World has put humanity and other life much closer to the brink, than what “mainstream” environmental groups would care to admit.
The Petroleum-based economies carry the cost of starving the Earth of vital oxygen, eventually making our planet’s inhospitable to humans, and other biological organisms. How do you like the thought of a future of dead oceans, and humans having to rely on oxygen machines that are supplied by the same group of corporations which are responsible for destroying Earth’s oxygen supply in the first place? But, after all, isn’t that what our capitalist system is all about? That is, they create layers of exploitation on top of exploitation in pursuit of avarice, and insatiable commercial profit, and ego-driven power?”
paminator said
Alex Collier, an alleged contactee of alleged Ethical Extraterrestrials suggests that our planet Earth is at a near critical Oxygen level.
“The Andromedans say that unless we change our ways of behaving, with all of the industrialization and what we are doing to the planet, we have less than 40 years of oxygen left.”
http://www.agoracosmopolitan.com/home/Frontpage/2009/01/23/03050.html
paminator said
And to set the bar high, I respectfully submit Monckton’s tongue-in-cheek forecasts for climate catastrophism. If this doesn’t win, the winner will be quite something.
From the ICCC, March 10, 2009, NYC.
“Great is truth and mighty above all things”
http://www.heartland.org/full/24881/Great_Is_Truth_and_Mighty_Above_All_Things.html
“Now, if we’re going to exaggerate, let’s exaggerate properly. Sea level is going to rise
not by Gore’s 20 feet, not by Hansen’s 246 feet, but by 2640 feet. Half a mile. You
heard it here first.”
“All lands not submerged beneath the inexorably-rising waves will bake and wither
under permanent year-round drought. Yea, and the very same lands will smother
and drown under permanent year-round floods. And plagues of locusts. And
pestilences. And famines. And brimstone and fire. And boils and pustules, yea, verily,
and other things that pullulate and fester and sound nasty enough to get big
headlines and bigger research grants.”
“Dr. Strangelove has published a peer-reviewed paper – so it must be true – saying
60% of all species will soon be flung into extinction. It won’t be 60%. It will be 326%.”
Layman Lurker said
Sorry to disappoint you Paminator, but you aren’t going to beat this one. You can “stick a fork” in this contest right now
. Might as well just mail me the check Jeff: http://www.agoracosmopolitan.com/home/Frontpage/2009/01/23/03050.html
“Ethical Extraterrestrials, the Global Oxygen Supply and Big Oil
by Dr. John Singh
What happens when humans continue to pursue a capitalist economic system, that destroys vital oxygen-producing organisms from phytoplankton, to trees in fragile rainforest ecosystems? That is an easy one, yeh. The result would be a decreasing supply of oxygen in Earth’s atmosphere, in relationship to other toxic gases. The greed-driven Petroleum-based economies of the Western World has put humanity and other life much closer to the brink, than what “mainstream” environmental groups would care to admit.
The Petroleum-based economies carry the cost of starving the Earth of vital oxygen, eventually making our planet’s inhospitable to humans, and other biological organisms. How do you like the thought of a future of dead oceans, and humans having to rely on oxygen machines that are supplied by the same group of corporations which are responsible for destroying Earth’s oxygen supply in the first place? But, after all, isn’t that what our capitalist system is all about? That is, they create layers of exploitation on top of exploitation in pursuit of avarice, and insatiable commercial profit, and ego-driven power?
The National Geographic documents the following on the production of vitally need oxygen on our planet.
In the process of photosynthesis, phytoplankton release oxygen into the water. Half of the world’s oxygen is produced via phytoplankton photosynthesis. The other half is produced via photosynthesis on land by trees, shrubs, grasses, and other plants.
The New Scientist magazine further observes that:
As the Earth’s oceans warm, the masses of tiny plants growing at their surface is declining, say U.S. researchers. Their results show that the productivity of global oceans is tightly linked to climate change and has steadily decreased between 1999 and 2004.
The team was led by Michael Behrenfeld, at Oregon State University, U.S., and used a sensor on NASA’s SeaWiFS satellite to measure different shades of green in the ocean allowed them to watch how chlorophyll in the oceans ebbed and flowed over the past 10 years. They looked at how these changes fitted changes in ocean temperatures and the predictions of computer models.
Their research, published in Nature, revealed two phases. Between 1997 and 1998, the amount of phytoplankton in the seas rose. At this time, the oceans were cooling after the strongest ever El Niño, which had warmed ocean temperatures.
From 1999 to 2004, there was a general warming of the oceans and, the images from space revealed, a persistent decrease in phytoplankton. In some regions, the drops in ocean productivity were often over 30%. Globally, the reductions meant that, between 1999 and 2004, about 190 million tonnes of carbon per year were not absorbed by the tiny plants and converted into organic matter. After 2004, there was a small upturn in productivity. LINK
Alex Collier, an alleged contactee of alleged Ethical Extraterrestrials suggests that our planet Earth is at a near critical Oxygen level.
The oxygen level in the atmosphere of the planet is less than 18%. It is approximately between 16.5 and 17.7% at any time, anywhere on the planet. This is significant. I want you to know that 3,500 years ago, the oxygen level was 35%. In order to survive, the human body needs to breathe an atmosphere that has at least 15% oxygen content. That is basic biology. The Andromedans say that unless we change our ways of behaving, with all of the industrialization and what we are doing to the planet, we have less than 40 years of oxygen left.”
Layman Lurker said
Forgot to mention that I spotted the above at Lucia’s
Nemo said
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article5950442.ece
UK population must fall to 30m, says Porritt
Jonathan Leake and Brendan Montague
JONATHON PORRITT, one of Gordon Brown’s leading green advisers, is to warn that Britain must drastically reduce its population if it is to build a sustainable society.
Porritt’s call will come at this week’s annual conference of the Optimum Population Trust (OPT), of which he is patron.
The trust will release research suggesting UK population must be cut to 30m if the country wants to feed itself sustainably.
Porritt said: “Population growth, plus economic growth, is putting the world under terrible pressure.
“Each person in Britain has far more impact on the environment than those in developing countries so cutting our population is one way to reduce that impact.”
Population growth is one of the most politically sensitive environmental problems. The issues it raises, including religion, culture and immigration policy, have proved too toxic for most green groups.
However, Porritt is winning scientific backing. Professor Chris Rapley, director of the Science Museum, will use the OPT conference, to be held at the Royal Statistical Society, to warn that population growth could help derail attempts to cut greenhouse gas emissions.
Rapley, who formerly ran the British Antarctic Survey, said humanity was emitting the equivalent of 50 billion tons of CO2 into the atmosphere each year.
“We have to cut this by 80%, and population growth is going to make that much harder,” he said.
Such views on population have split the green movement. George Monbiot, a prominent writer on green issues, has criticised population campaigners, arguing that “relentless” economic growth is a greater threat.
Many experts believe that, since Europeans and Americans have such a lopsided impact on the environment, the world would benefit more from reducing their populations than by making cuts in developing countries.
This is part of the thinking behind the OPT’s call for Britain to cut population to 30m — roughly what it was in late Victorian times.
Britain’s population is expected to grow from 61m now to 71m by 2031. Some politicians support a reduction.
Phil Woolas, the immigration minister, said: “You can’t have sustainability with an increase in population.”
The Tory leader, David Cameron, has also suggested Britain needs a “coherent strategy” on population growth.
Despite these comments, however, government and Conservative spokesmen this weekend both distanced themselves from any population policy. ”
ColdPlay said
The Prince of Wales is to issue a stark warning that nations have “less than 100 months to act” to save the planet from irreversible damage due to climate change.
9 March 2009
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/theroyalfamily/4952918/Prince-Charles-we-have-100-months-to-save-the-world.html
” His warning will be delivered on Thursday in a keynote speech in Rio de Janeiro”.
I think he flew about 20 staff with him?
Jeff Alberts said
FYI, you misspelled “predictions” in the post title…
Jim P said
Professor Jacqueline McGlade – take a bow, madam!
http://www.sundayherald.com/news/heraldnews/display.var.2498516.0.0.php
“THE WORLD is heading for an unparalleled climate catastrophe unless rich and poor nations agree drastic cuts in pollution in just the next few months, the head of the European Environment Agency (EEA) is warning.
Even if all the current promises to cut greenhouse gas emissions are honoured, the world will still see global temperatures rise by an average of four degrees centigrade by the end of the century, according to Professor Jacqueline McGlade, the EEA executive director.”
Stephen Brown said
Hmmm.
A capacity factor of 40% for wind-powered generators reported because “All the authoritative sources I have seen report…”
He ought to look a little harder for his sources.
Stephen Brown said
Missed the link!!
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2009/mar/31/george-monbiot-wind-farms-renewable
Stephen Brown said
It would appear that the UK government has employed Hansen to “massage” the official figures. Read this article!
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/comment/columnists/christopherbooker/5105923/Yet-more-mind-boggling-figures-on-global-warming.html
Jeff Id said
Mercury News Washington Bureau
Posted: 04/07/2009 03:36:15 PM PDT
WASHINGTON — Energy Secretary Steven Chu, renowned policy wonk, has found vivid language to highlight the threat of global warming: “Earth is like the great ship Titanic,” on a collision course with disaster unless action is taken.
Hal said
Hansen keeps doing it. He now avoids specifics, but has heightened the anxiety of his pitch:
Scientific Ameriacan, April14,2009
“We are now completely in charge,” said NASA scientist James Hansen, who was not a part of the study but who first urged Congress to stem emissions in 1988.
“We are going to determine the climate for our children and grandchildren. We’re much more powerful than the natural forces…. We could be sending the planet back toward an ice-free state.”
http://www.sciam.com/article.cfm?id=even-deep-cuts-in-greenho&page=2
In reference to this article:
Even Deep Cuts in Greenhouse Gas Emissions Will Not Stop Global Warming
Drastic emissions cuts won’t stop the global warming from gases already in the atmosphere
http://www.sciam.com/article.cfm?id=even-deep-cuts-in-greenho
I am amazed that Scientific American joins in this pathetic alarmist screaming.
What are they trying to accomplish with this “It’s TOO LATE” scheme. Even committed people will start saying “why bother” when the difference between doing nothing and Draconiam economic cuts just halves Armageddon.
For LOL. Fits my strategy, let them hang themselves with their own rope.
Hal
page48 said
Global Warming Causes Severe Acne!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
from PressMediaWire.com
Link to article:
http://pressmediawire.com/article.cfm?articleID=4626
Jeff Id said
I’ve got to organize this stuff soon. Here’s a good one.
Dr Phil Edwards, of the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine,
“We need to do a lot more to reverse the global trend towards fatness. It is a key factor in the battle to reduce carbon emissions and slow climate change. ”
http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/article2387203.ece
paminator said
Here’s another one.
Earth likely to disappear in two centuries, warn experts
“If the phenomenon of global warming is allowed to continue at the current rate, the human race is likely to be wiped out in about two centuries by disaster if not earlier by a nuclear war, Professor Syed Amir Ahmed Kazmi, former Director General, Pakistan Meteorological Services told The News.”
http://www.thenews.com.pk/daily_detail.asp?id=176684
paminator said
Kofi is back in the fray…
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/environment/article6380709.ece#cid=OTC-RSS&attr=2015164
“The extent of the climate threat is also highlighted today by a report that suggests global warming is already killing an estimated 300,000 people per year — equivalent to the loss of life that resulted from the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami.
The report from the World Humanitarian Forum, an independent organisation led by Kofi Annan, the former UN Secretary-General, claims that 90 per cent of those deaths are related to gradual environmental degradation resulting from the warming climate — principally malnutrition, diarrhoea and malaria. The remaining 10 per cent are linked with weather-related disasters.
The study, due to be presented this morning by Mr Annan, was reviewed by distinguished experts in the field, including Rajendra Pachauri, chairman of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), and Professor Jeffrey Sachs, director of the Earth Institute at Columbia University in New York.
It projects that by 2030, the number of annual deaths directly resulting from the warming global climate will rise to 500,000.”
Jeff Id said
#54 – Wow, Hansen has competition.
FadingFast said
“Due to the accelerating pace of global warming catastrophe, grass will grow at the North Pole by Christmastime 2020.” Santa Claus, December 1984.
cbrianb said
Has anyone seen this yet?
Mr Schmidt has an new picture book out depicting, “The seldom-seen devastation of climate change”. I thought it might prompt some lively discussion.
http://www.salon.com/env/feature/2009/06/01/gavin_schmidt/
paminator said
Here’s another beaut…
From Roger Pielke Jr’s website link- “A group of Nobel laureates met in London last week at the St. James Symposium on Sustainability and crafted yet-another-political-statement-from-scientists.”
“The St James Palace Memorandum
“Action for a Low Carbon and Equitable Future”
London, UK, 26 – 28 May 2009
The St James’s Palace Memorandum calls for a global deal on climate change that matches the scale and urgency of the human, ecological and economic crises facing the world today. It urges governments at all levels, as well as the scientific community, to join with business and civil society to seize hold of this historic opportunity to transform our carbon-intensive economies into sustainable and equitable systems. We must recognize the fierce urgency of now.
“The solutions to the extraordinary environmental, economic and human crises of this century will not be found in the political arena alone. Stimulated by the manifesto of Bertrand Russell and Albert Einstein, the first Pugwash gathering of 1957 united scientists of all political persuasions to discuss the threat posed to civilization by the advent of thermonuclear weapons.
“Global climate change represents a threat of similar proportions, and should be addressed in a similar manner.”
Its not going to be warmer, its going to be thermonuclear warmer!
As Copenhagen nears, I expect the silliness factor of these pressers to exponentially ramp up, with an asymptote in late November.
Morris said
Jeff Id,
“Just what you wanted, a place to deposit all the most extreme predictions by the experts and the media on global warming. With 2009 cooling trend, the experts making the money will be falling over each other to hype their case. It’s sure to bring a landslide of unprecedented catastrophic predictions our way”
Experts?
Halcyon said
I’m feeling confident here:
The Atlantic. Article by Graeme Wood: July/August 09
Re-Engineering the Earth
If we were transported forward in time, to an Earth ravaged by catastrophic climate change, we might see long, delicate strands of fire hose stretching into the sky, like spaghetti, attached to zeppelins hovering 65,000 feet in the air. Factories on the ground would pump 10 kilos of sulfur dioxide up through those hoses every second. And at the top, the hoses would cough a sulfurous pall into the sky. At sunset on some parts of the planet, these puffs of aerosolized pollutant would glow a dramatic red, like the skies in Blade Runner. During the day, they would shield the planet from the sun’s full force, keeping temperatures cool—as long as the puffing never ceased.
And so it goes on and on.
http://www.theatlantic.com/doc/200907/climate-engineering
jeannette powers said
Shoot, I thought the only changes this next four years would be from the “ObamaNation”. Guess the latest El Nino will upstage the current ongoing disaster in Washington, and global warming be damned!!!
chris y said
From the mind of Gaia worshiper James Lovelock-
“If we can keep civilization alive through this century perhaps there is a chance that our descendants will one day serve Gaia and assist her in the fine-tuned self-regulation of the climate and composition of our planet.
We have enjoyed 12,000 years of climate peace since the last shift from a glacial age to an interglacial one. Before long, we may face planet-wide devastation worse even than unrestricted nuclear war between superpowers. The climate war could kill nearly all of us and leave the few survivors living a Stone Age existence.”
chris y said
Oops. Forgot the link for #62-
http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2009/jun/29/climate-war-lovelock
Adam Soereg said
Here is one, the 2009 global temperature forecast of the UK MetOffice (it seems to be plain wrong after 6 passed months):
Date: 30 Dec 2008
The original article is available here.
2009 is expected to be one of the top-five warmest years on record, despite continued cooling of huge areas of the tropical Pacific Ocean, a phenomenon known as La Niña.
According to climate scientists at the Met Office and the University of East Anglia the global temperature is forecast to be more than 0.4 °C above the long-term average. This would make 2009 warmer than the year just gone and the warmest since 2005.
According to the latest data from UAH, 2009 is lightyears away from being one of the top five warmest years and the warmest since 2005.
During La Niña, cold waters rise to the surface to cool the ocean and land surface temperatures. The 2009 forecast includes an updated decadal forecast using a Met Office climate model. This indicates a rapid return of global temperature to the long-term warming trend, with an increasing probability of record temperatures after 2009.
So 2010 and/or 2011 are expected be warmer than 1998? If not, they will be in big trouble… The recent cooling since about 2001 and lack of warming since about 1997 can not be explained by a single ENSO event.
Andy Weiss said
I don’t think this is exactly what your are looking for butI believe this is still noteworthy. While at a global warming conference in College Park, MD on 5/15/08, we were told (by a bearded psueodo-scientist, whose name I don’t recall) that we are all going to die within the next 50 years due to a collapse of the ecosystem. A college-age girl in the audience was heard saying, “we might as well all
jump off the roof”.
I tried to counter by saying that Des Moines, IA had not set a daily high temperature since July 1955 and that Washington, DC had not set a monthly high temperature record during the warm season months of May thru October since since 1941. I also gave similar data for Waterloo, IA, Minneapolis, MN and St. Louis, MO. I concluded by saying “this does not seem like the end of the world to me”.
I was then told by a chorus of “true believers” that this was just local data, which didn’t reflect the world as a whole, also that global warming can actually cause certain places to cool!
By the way, depending on what set of averages you want to use, Churchill, Manitoba (the center of the polar bear hysteria) averaged 11-17F below normal in May 2009 and 5-8 degrees below normal in June. Just a few days ago, on July 10th, they were 33 degrees at 1 PM (the average temperature for that time of day is at least 60 degrees). Sounds like the polar bears are just fine!
For the record, I am not a professional meteorologist or climatoligist, just someone who has always enjoyed looking at weather data for the last 50 years.
Thanks for letting me get my 2 cents in.
Page48 said
From the Discovery Channel:
Bye Bye Black Sheep: Warming Dooms Dark Wool
Link:
http://dsc.discovery.com/news/2009/07/22/black-sheep-warming.html
I guess we’ll just have to see if the trend continues.
Antonio San said
I guess this has to rank among top:
Environment Canada should get their story right for a change:
In the Vancouver — The Canadian Press Last updated on Thursday, Jul. 30, 2009 12:49PM EDT ” “A very strong ridge of high pressure is currently dominating all of B.C.,” said Gary Dickinson, a meteorologist with Environment Canada. “The ridge of high pressure also brought up from the south very warm air, which was responsible for the record-breaking temperatures.”
And now in the Jane Armstrong Vancouver — From Friday’s Globe and Mail Last updated on Friday, Jul. 31, 2009 01:04AM EDT “As forecasters we care about two things: Is the wind blowing onshore or offshore? And if you answer that question, you can tell a lot about the weather. If the wind blows offshore for a prolonged period of time, a heat wave sets in.”
So dear Environment Canada… did the wind that caused the 2009 heatwave blow from the South -ocean- or from the East -land-? ROTFLOL!!!!!!!
““As forecasters we care about two things: Is the wind blowing onshore or offshore?” says Mr. Jones, meteorologist for Environment Canada.
And at least we know where the Hot Air is coming from…
chris y said
Saving droplets but losing gallons-
“Tragically, something insidious — climate change — is reversing the flow of nature’s craftsmanship. Large bodies of fresh water are shrinking into small bodies, creating a scarcity never experienced in the modern era. If not recognized and attended to professionally, the impact on human life and global economic progress will be catastrophic.”
http://www.startribune.com/business/53242182.html?page=1&c=y
Richard J said
Newstatesman
The Four Feedbacks of the Apocalypse
Posted by Oliver Postgate12 December 2006 10:16
The future?
As things are, we can look forward to going on more or less as usual, but, if we take no action to reverse global warming and prevent the triggering of feedbacks, we shall be moving into a future of gradual decay, a future in which, one after another, what are called ‘weather-patterns’ will change. The snow may forget to fall.
One day the rains will not come, or maybe come as a flood. The bright ice will slowly melt into the dark water, and the green that grows to feed the fish will not appear. Starving whales may beach to die.
At each of these stages, the political climatologists will simply revise their predictions in the light of what is happening and then go on as usual. After all, their predictions were never more than conjectures. Conjectures do not take blame.
At the same time, piecemeal, slowly but at an increasing rate, the heat will change the face of the world. Forests will die, deserts will spread, and massively charged storms and hurricanes will smash through cities as the seas rise and slosh into them. Life, if it can move, will edge towards the poles where the ice that once cooled the world may have left behind some tillable land. But, in the desperate struggle for survival, our massive armouries of killing machines will have come into their own and there will be very few left undead, to scratch a living in the savannah that was once Siberia, while it lasts. After that there could be nothing. And maybe nobody left to remember that there ever was anything.
http://www.newstatesman.com/200612120002
Ted said
Here’s a nice prediction, in that it can actually be assessed in the near future.
“World will warm faster than predicted in next five years, study warns”
http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2009/jul/27/world-warming-faster-study
Cheers.
chris y said
Warmer climate could make succulent meat a memory
“If you like a tasty slab of meat, make sure you place your orders soon. Pork chops will become soggier and paler as the world warms, say veterinary scientists, and steaks could become blander, leaner, darker and more prone to spoilage.
This is all because the quality of our meat depends on whether or not animals experience heat stress during transport to the abattoir.”
http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn17735-warmer-climate-could-make-succulent-meat-a-memory.html
Jim P said
Polar bears face extinction in less than 70 years
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/science/science-news/6167819/Polar-bears-face-extinction-in-less-than-70-years-because-of-global-warming.html
Melting ice is causing their numbers to drop dramatically, they warn.
Others also at risk include ivory gulls, Pacific walruses, ringed and hooded seals and narwhals, small whales with long, spiral tusks.
Jim P said
Arctic seas turn to acid
“in many regions around the north pole seawater is likely to reach corrosive levels within 10 years.”
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2009/oct/04/arctic-seas-turn-to-acid
Helpmaboab!
Paul A. Bradford said
Zombieland lives!
“We’ll be eight degrees hotter in 10 — not 10, but 30 or 40 years and basically none of the crops will grow. Most of the people will have died, and the rest of us will be cannibals.”
Tuesday, April 1, 2008
Ted Turner
http://www.charlierose.com/view/interview/9019
Hal said
Here is a claim we can evaluate in LESS THAN A YEAR… 2010.
NASA climate scientist Gavin Schmidt predicts 2010 may break a record, so a cooling trend “will be never talked about again.”
http://www.comcast.net/articles/news-general/20091026/US.SCI.Global.Cooling_/
Kevin Stamey said
In an interview of Lord Stern of Brentford with The Times journalist Robin Pagnamenta, Energy Editor on October 27, 2009
If we continue with business as usual we would be looking at temperature increases of 5 degrees centigrade by early next century. We have not seen those sort of conditions for 30 million years. These kind of changes will have huge consequences — southern Europe is likely to be a desert; hundreds of millions of people will have to move. There will be severe global conflict.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/environment/article6891287.ece
Ursus maritimus said
Maurice Strong playing off the Lovelock quote above (#19 Movielib), as written up in the National Post.
“And experts [Locklove, I suspect] have predicted that the reduction of the human population may well continue to the point that those who survive may not number more than the 1.61 billion people who inhabited the Earth at the beginning of the 20th century.
[Here's the best part] A consequence, yes, of death and destruction — but in the end a glimmer of hope for the future of our species and its potential for regeneration.”
Read more: http://network.nationalpost.com/np/blogs/fullcomment/archive/2009/11/12/peter-foster-chairman-mo-s-little-red-website.aspx
Mikael Whelan said
I just love post 24: “This is a product that we use for less than three seconds” I never would have thought of taking a stopwatch into a dunny to save the planet.
Alberto said
‘Climate change pushes poor women to prostitution, dangerous work’
Suneeta Mukherjee, country representative of the United Nations Food Population Fund (UNFPA), said women in the Philippines are the most vulnerable to the effects of climate change in the country.
“Climate change could reduce income from farming and fishing, possibly driving some women into sex work and thereby increase HIV infection,” Mukherjee said during the Wednesday launch of the UNFPA annual State of World Population Report in Pasay City.
R Taylor said
“Geothermal definitely is” a viable solution the the next “35,000 years” of America’s energy needs, as the temperature of the earth’s interior is “several million degrees”, Al Gore, The Tonight Show with Conan O’Brian, November 12, 2009.
Chitral Cheetah said
We should dispute and challenge climate change theories and predictions. That is good science. However if you do it with a political agenda or no scientific basis then we are as guilty as the one making the stupid prediction.
Solar and Wind energy cant they be good on their own merit because they do reduce pollution and wean us off the middle east oil ?
CC