the Air Vent

Because the world needs another opinion

Posts Tagged ‘climate’

Tamino’s Folly – Temperatures did Drop

Posted by Jeff Id on October 21, 2008

Ok, the truth is I didn’t care before if the downward trend is valid. I’m just a bit annoyed that Tamino (at Open Mind) and Real Climate won’t let me post on their blogs about it. In this post I demonstrate the folly of his conclusions.

Tamino has made a couple of posts on how the last 10 year drop in temperature is not statistically significant so it isn’t real. He went too far in his last one and began claiming it was a tactic of some kind of creature called a denialist to confuse and confound the public.

Let’s see what Tamino has been saying on his blog link HERE.

Some of you might wonder why I make so many posts about the impact of noise on trend analysis, and how it can not only lead to mistaken conclusions about temperature trends, it can be abused by those who wish deliberately to mislead readers. The reason is that this is still a common tactic by denialists to confuse and confound the public.

I just hate bad science. First he points out how Bjorn Lomborg made some comments about temperature decreasing, after placing the ever more popular label of denialist on him implying Lomborg’s statements were intended to confound and confuse the public. Heres the main point of what Bjorn Lomborg said.

They (temperatures) have actually decreased by between 0.01 and 0.1C per decade.

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The Climate Change Buzzword War

Posted by Jeff Id on October 2, 2008

We who are skeptical of the science behind man made clmate change are at a big disadvantage in the AGW debate. They have the world stage, they have the billions of dollars and the ear of the politicians.

We are comprised of scientists and individuals who understand the science and are almost completely unfunded through government grants. There is little voice for a paper demostrating the non-linear temp response of trees or mollusk sphincters. Even smaller voice for demonstrations of statistical manipulation.

What is worse we are loosing on a simpler front as well, —- The war of the buzzword.

Take a minute to think about some of these:

Temperature anomaly

Global warming

Climate change

Hockey Stick

Climate Model

Carbon footprint

Carbon budget

Green energy

Clean energy

Deniers

Biosphere

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The Changing Earth

Posted by Jeff Id on September 17, 2008

I didn’t feel very inspired today until I ran across an article on the violence of earths history. I want to write about that now. For those who read my blog regularly, you know that I feel it is clear that the world governments are the primary drivers behind the global warming rhetoric and science. Some day I will post on how the governments are using the scientists but that is a different subject.

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Global Warming – Cookin’ the Books

Posted by Jeff Id on September 7, 2008

This paper is about how the hockey stick temperature graph was invented through bad science and continues to get worse.

I started this blog because I wanted to use my science background to  add my two cents about things which were bothering me in the news.  I couldn’t take it all out on my family after all.  At first my posts were intended to demonstrate how the anthropogenic global warming guys were hyping the data and I quickly found at its roots of a massive network of government organizations who’s survival and continued power depend on man made global warming to survive.  As I got deeper I found that it is actually more than a hundred billion dollar industry now and expanding rapidly.

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P Value Correlation, Who wants a backward hockeystick anyway?

Posted by Jeff Id on September 5, 2008

I found the following paragraph from the latest Mann paper interesting.

Reconstructions were performed based on both the ‘‘full’’ proxy
data network and on a ‘‘screened’’ network (Table S1) consisting of
only those proxies that pass a screening process for a local surfacetemperature
signal. The screening process requires a statistically
significant (P  0.10) correlation with local instrumental surfacetemperature
data during the calibration interval. Where the sign of
the correlation could a priori be specified (positive for tree-ring
data, ice-core oxygen isotopes, lake sediments, and historical documents,
and negative for coral oxygen-isotope records), a one-sided
significance criterion was used. Otherwise, a two-sided significance
criterion was used. Further details of the screening procedure are
provided in SI Text.

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How to Make a Hockey Stick – Paleoclimatology (What they don’t want you to know)

Posted by Jeff Id on September 4, 2008

I just learned something today which has left a sick feeling in my stomach.  I learned how the latest Mann et al hockey stick graph was created.  So you don’t have to read the paper HERE, I’m going to summarize the result.

This time Mann avoided all the tree ring reconstructions from the old hockey stick because of a problem with what is termed Divergence.  Divergence means the data don’t correlate well in recent times (last 130 years).  Scientists know that a high percentage of trees “temperature” data don’t fit well when compared to the warming trend of earth – measured data.   To sort the data, they correlate the data, which is very noisy and doesn’t look like a temperature measurement at all by measuring its statistical significance to the 130 year measured temperature record.  Data which doesn’t match to a minimal extent with current temperatures is rejected.  The remaining data sets are averaged together (often using very strange techniques) to create a final signal.

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Who Says We’ve Already Passed a Tipping Point

Posted by Jeff Id on September 3, 2008

I have been questioned on other blogs more than one time about my references to people claiming we have passed the “tipping point”  in climate change.  Scepticism of a skeptic as it were.  So I took the time to write about some bigshot scientist who is making the over the top claims.

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Ten things Everyone Should Know About Climate Change Science

Posted by Jeff Id on August 30, 2008

  1. The UN organization called the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change or IPCC is the prime driver in world government research, recommendations and ultimately policy on climate change.
  2. The IPCC was formed in 1986 by the UN governments for the purpose of understanding the risk of human induced climate change, assessing observed impacts of climate change and methods for adaptation and mitigation of human induced climate change. This is well before human induced climate change had been established.
  3. The IPCC scientists are almost exclusively supported through government contracts which pay for research. The IPCC activities, hotels and travel to exotic locations and drafting authors are paid by government funds. Read the rest of this entry »

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AGW Part #5 – Limitations of Ice Core Data or The Smoking Gun #2

Posted by Jeff Id on August 25, 2008

From my previous post on ice core data “AGW Part #5 – Limitations of Ice Core Data or The Smoking Gun” we could see the regular variations in temperature over the last 10000 years regularly shifting up and down by as much as 1.5 degrees. We also saw in my post AGW part #4 – The History of Temperature that CO2 levels measured much lower than what we measure today and they typically lag behind temperature change.

I took the time to count the number of times our temperature has crossed the zero line in the last 5000 years. I counted 36 transitions across the zero line. I also counted 31 times where temperature shifted up or down by more than 1 degree C see below.

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AGW Part #5 – Limitations of Ice Core Data or The Smoking Gun

Posted by Jeff Id on August 24, 2008

Ice core data as discussed in AGW Part #4, is the result of trapped gasses in microbubbles in ice. The ice is cut using a long tubular saw/drill and removed in long segments. The theory of ice cores is that once the snow pack becomes dense enough, the trapped air cannot travel through the ice core. Diffusion effects are clearly present however. Therefore, if you introduce a high concentration of gas at one point in the core, over time it will spread out. This tends to “filter” sudden spikes in temperature as recorded by gas concentrations over time. Below is an excellent illustration from an excellent site on ice core data here.

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Anthropogenic Global Waming Story #1 – IPCC

Posted by Jeff Id on August 21, 2008

Ok, this will take a bit. I think each section should be short but make its points. This is a difficult topic and I did research it for a long time without preconceived conclusions.

The IPCC is the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and is prime driver in world climate change policy see the definition of their history and mission here.

The reason for the founding of the IPCC is defined in an excerpt from the above link. Read the rest of this entry »

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Environmentalist Catastrophy

Posted by Jeff Id on August 18, 2008

I’m sorry to bring bad news from The Air Vent today.

According to political scientists our little “Green” planet is facing a potential EnvironMentalist Catastrophy. Continuing hot air released from politicians seeking power is creating an increase in global political temperatures like the Earth has never seen before. Fueled by ever increasing greenhouse gas rhetoric released by the environmentalists, the political climate is reaching a tipping point from which there may be no return. Read the rest of this entry »

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You Must Not Think

Posted by Jeff Id on August 18, 2008

Today I ran across an amazing article titled – Psychologists determine what it means to think ‘green’

by — By Sharon Jayson, USA TODAY

The article begins like this

Those who make human behavior their business aim to make living “green” your business.

A couple of sentences later it goes on.

American Psychological Association is stepping up efforts to foster a broader sense of eco-sensitivity that the group believes will translate into more public action to protect the planet.

I am all for voluntary informed conservation, there is no sense in wanton trashing of our world so this doesn’t sound too bad yet. It’s basically a group of psychologists who see it as their goal to help us live cleaner lives. No problem, right?

In the middle of the article this comes out.

• News stories that provided a balanced view of climate change reduced people’s beliefs that humans are at fault and also reduced the number of people who thought climate change would be bad, according to research by Stanford social psychologist Jon Krosnick. Read the rest of this entry »

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