the Air Vent

Because the world needs another opinion

Michigan vs Ohio

Posted by Jeff Id on December 2, 2020

I have a huge advantage over most in understanding this NYT dataset because I’ve spent a lot of time with it. It is easy to not realize that others haven’t seen other aspects of this data and the comparison can be enlightening. A couple of comments recently make the point that some of these insane pro-Biden ratios are believable to them. Basically, they make the conclusion that the cause could be just demographics.

Despite how it pains me, Ohio is a similar state to my home state of Michigan. Shared border, same size population, very similar industries, combinations of rural and city life. In Michigan, the secretary of state unilaterally sent applications for ballots to every registered voter. The one lawsuit against this practice failed because the fake judge claimed that these weren’t ballots but applications for ballots, so constitutional election law doesn’t apply and the state didn’t need to follow the law as written by the legislature. Anyone in Michigan in 2020, was able to fill any one of them out and mail them back in and an unobserved government employee would then choose whether to mail out the ballot. Conversely, those who voted in-person in Michigan were required to have identification presented, registration matched, signatures matched and addresses matched. This is done in detail by the poll workers at the time of in-person voting before you are allowed to even touch a ballot.

There are so many ways to cheat this mail in system, but the biggest one is right in front of us. Vote twice as numerous people have openly claimed to do. Send one mail-in ballot and then vote yourself in person. It’s up to the poll workers to decide if they will take the time to compare the addresses and voter names and reject one or the other. However, my wife and I personally received five applications with three of them, sent to people who have moved out of state — in other words, no way to check that we are them other than too many votes at a single address. Something no poll worker is EVER trained to look for as it is not part of election law.

I have a friend who received seven ballots for different people in Michigan. The seven had all moved out of the apartment and are very likely in different areas of the state or country. There is no harm done to nefarious folks who simply sign them sloppily and send them in because there is no proof beyond a reasonable doubt of who did it. The result is that if certain areas wish to be heavily over-represented in Michigan, the poll workers simply needed to accept the paper. These aren’t bad folks because they had no legal mechanism or data by which to reject those ballots.

That’s it — the big Michigan fraud. Not a computer glitch, not some dude hacking in, not some big pre-planned conspiracy outside of changing the rules, just accept the ballots. Very simple. Not that the other issues didn’t also happen because they also did but the big one, the giant no-conspiracy vote bias in Michigan, is right there in your face because there is no observation mechanism to counteract it.

Unfortunately, this bias in voting heavily favors apartment living city voters. Cities have a lot of people moving in and out of rentals, each time they re-register to vote (have a drivers license update), the old voter registration is not automatically updated. That is why in this and future elections but none prior to 2020, seven different ballot applications can show up at a single person’s apartment in Michigan — without any request from a voter.

It is very important to understand that in Michigan, before the Secretary of State unconstitutionally changed the voting absentee rules to automatically mail every registered person an application. Michigan already had unconditional absentee voting by voter request. We simply filled out a request form and a ballot was mailed to us. The only requirement was that we had to previously have registered to vote at some claimed address. Our previous addresses would still be registered and had been confirmed by ID as a valid Michigan voter at least one time in the past. This system could also be cheated without consequence, but not en-masse. This is important to understand because it means that there was no COVID safety NEED for an absentee voting rule change in Michigan.

Not a single prosecution or accusation has been made against a voter for multiple votes to date. Odd eh? I must be wrong……. Nobody voted twice.

Ohio, unlike Michigan, didn’t intentionally bias the ballots. They changed nothing significant in their absentee process as no changes were required for safety.

Enough yacking Id! Show me data!

Figure 1 – Ohio vote totals over ballot counting period. Data from Edison Research per NYT

Note that in the above figure, there are no blue triangles indicating ANY unusual vote percentages in Ohio. All cities and rural areas reported normally with nothing unusual showing up.

Figure 2 – Ohio vote distrbution. Log scale on x

You can see that we have a decent bell curve, probably a log type distribution but I haven’t done any distribution type testing. This point is more relevant when compared to Figure 3 below.

Figure 3 – vote distribution for Michigan.

Now in Ohio, the green and red bars are combined so the way to compare these graph is to imagine all the red bars in Figure 3 are also green. The reason for this difference is that had I split Michigan into two separate voting times per a recent previous post such that we could generally see some of the absentee count separately from the regular count.

Remember the x axis is a natural log scale so vote ratios of Biden/Trump of 3 on the x axis are 7 times more extreme than x values of 1. The likelihood of experiencing those red votes on the far right is extremely low.

Comparing Ohio’s distribution and Michigan’s, there is a distinct second smaller peak in the Michigan vote data. The Michigan graph has a distinct visual bi-modal distribution. You can visually see two separate normal distributions (mountain peaks) on top of each other. The large peak is centered perfectly on Ohio, and a second smaller peak centered to the right.

Interestingly, I did plot a fit to this smaller distribution previously, I just didn’t put it in the previous post. I have added it to Figure 4 below.

Figure 4 – Michigan data again with red distribution fit to after hours votes.

In Figure 4, the red normal distribution is a regressed (and y scaled only) fit to the red bars (votes after 3am EST). Note how well centered the red curve is over the smaller second normal distribution peak in the green bars. The red curve isn’t created using the data from the green bars, only the red but the center of the peak is very close. As most of the red bars (after 3am) represent absentee related vote counting, it is reasonable to assume that the green bars creating the second mountain peak of the smaller distribution are likely absentee vote counting done earlier in the evening. Now if we had access to the raw data, and could show absentee ballots make up this second peak, this would be statistically damning evidence in the state as these two voting groups were treated very differently as a matter of law. This is the type of distribution you would expect to see in a voting distribution if a biased group was allowed to vote multiple times.

So, all that being said. Ohio has large cities. Ohio has vote fraud too which is very slightly visible IMHO in the reporting data. That Ohio distribution (Figure 2) isn’t perfectly symmetric and normal, it has a bias in shape toward the right side of the graph. Ohio did NOT have unconstitutional rule changes to create the situation where voters are disproportionately counted multiple times based on city vs country lifestyle. Ohio also didn’t have any dramatically large unusual voting this time. This state has demographic distributions similar to Michigan but a very different election result.

Michigan’s state bird is the Robyn. A fine upstanding bird that. Perhaps we should change the bird to the dodo, as we are now the fraud capital of the United States.

Michigan does have a little competition in the multiple voting category though:

Figure 5 – Pennsylvania – same X axis scale as Ohio and Michigan above

See any similarities to Ohio or Michigan?


Posted in Uncategorized | 2 Comments »

Georgia

Posted by Jeff Id on December 1, 2020

Does anyone anywhere think Biden actually won Georgia? I don’t think so.

Similar to the last post, this one shows the biggest outliers in Georgia. They mostly came after about 4 am GMT or 11pm Georgia time. Each of them had election swinging magnitude, like all battleground states, Trump had no anomalously off center events. Blue markers in the first figure point to unusual entries.

Posted in Uncategorized | 1 Comment »

Michigan Vote Fraud

Posted by Jeff Id on November 30, 2020

The NYT published live data from Edison Research on their website.   Each entry withing this data is county or precinct based reporting of vote totals from the counted batches as they were completed.  There are very significant anomalies in these reported votes which can indicate nothing other than wide-scale vote fraud.

The below step plot is the total votes in Michigan as they came in.   The most unusual values are indicated with blue Triangles underneath them.   All 5 of these happened after 3 am, and all 5 represent large pro-Biden votes with minimal to no, pro-Trump component.

Figure 1

The steps were picked out as having a 0.5% or less chance of being part of the rest of the vote reports collected in Michigan.   There were 5 entries and all 5 went to Biden and all 5 happened after 3am.

The below graph shows how extreme these points really were.

In recent work, I’ve used straight ratio’s of Trump votes vs total votes to determine significance.  This gives symmetrical values between 0 and 1 with 0.5 being the situation where Trump has half of the votes.   In this article, I’ve used the natural log of Biden/Trump ratio.  This requires that all negative votes be eliminated but it mathematically clean as well.  The 50/50 vote occurs at log(B/T) = 1. 

The green bars show the distribution of the large vote entries prior to 3am Michigan local time.  These large entries are used to avoid rounding issues in the NYT dataset caused by their reporting methods. The time was chosen arbitrarily except that this was when many of the absentee ballots were counted, and these ballots were subject to different rules than regular votes.  No validation of voter information was made whatsoever.  Note the general right direction shift in the red bars which represent ballot count after 3 am, because this represents some of the expected shift toward Democrats in absentee voting.  Most of these votes still stay within the green bars and 6 of these large reports even went to trump.     

The print overplotted itself on the graph, this is what it says in order from left to right.

Percent likelihood 0.25208 Row 4545 Time 2020-11-04 20:55:38 Vote Difference B-T  27100

Percent likelihood 0.20651 Row 4550 Time 2020-11-05 00:29:28 Vote Difference B-T  16800

Percent likelihood 0.19212 Row 4500 Time 2020-11-04 12:14:51 Vote Difference B-T  23900

Percent likelihood 0.00173 Row 4449 Time 2020-11-04 08:50:10 Vote Difference B-T  49800

Percent likelihood 1e-05 Row 4495 Time 2020-11-04 11:31:53 Vote Difference B-T  135300

The far right bar representing 135000 votes entered has a likelihood of being part of the standard vote of .00001 percent.  One in ten million.  This is the single largest vote entry reported in the state of Michigan and it is the single most extreme. 

The story is even stronger than that though.  It is critical to note that this analysis would have shown extreme Trump votes as well, yet the five most extreme one-sided votes in Michigan were all in favor of Biden, all during the time when absentee ballots were being counted.  

The ballots in these five extreme entries were more than sufficient to change the outcome in Michigan.  They are statistically impossible without a bias toward one candidate.  This is evidence bordering on actual proof of significant fraud in the presidential election. 

To reach the level of a statistical proof, validation of this information requires a deep look at actual reporting events from each county.  The data Edison Research collected would be sufficient to verify this data and from the general appearance, would likely pinpoint the areas of interest.   While the election cycle is likely lost, vote integrity is the foundation of the United States of America.   Investigation of the counties and people involved needs to be pursued to the maximum extent of law. 

Posted in Uncategorized | 5 Comments »

More ‘no evidence’ to Ponder #2

Posted by Jeff Id on November 28, 2020

While every single media outlet prefaces any claim of vote fraud, they use the words unsubstantiated or without evidence or any other strongly worded claim trying to TRICK you into believing there is, in fact, no evidence of wide scale vote fraud. Nothing could be further from the truth. In my last post, I was able to identify battleground states, not by the huge number of votes cast but by being the states with the hardest pro-Biden votes in the entire country.

Michigan beat out California and Washington DC, as did Wisconsin and Georgia. These votes as registered are so far out of whack that they are a statistical impossibility.

Reader Amac78 left a link to a brand new website conceived of apparently over this exact same issue. This article has come to the same conclusions as I have and they have done a much better job communicating it than I have. If you even remotely care about fair elections, you will be shocked.


Anomalies in Vote Counts and Their Effects on Election 2020

In particular, we are able to quantify the extent of compliance with this property and discover that, of the 8,954 vote updates used in the analysis, these four decisive updates were the 1st, 2nd, 4th, and 7th most anomalous updates in the entire data set. Not only does each of these vote updates not follow the generally observed pattern, but the anomalous behavior of these updates is particularly extreme. That is, these vote updates are outliers of the outliers.

The four vote updates in question are: 

  1. An update in Michigan listed as of 6:31AM Eastern Time on November 4th, 2020, which shows 141,258 votes for Joe Biden and 5,968 votes for Donald Trump
  2. An update in Wisconsin listed as 3:42AM Central Time on November 4th, 2020, which shows 143,379 votes for Joe Biden and 25,163 votes for Donald Trump
  3. A vote update in Georgia listed at 1:34AM Eastern Time on November 4th, 2020, which shows 136,155 votes for Joe Biden and 29,115 votes for Donald Trump
  4. An update in Michigan listed as of 3:50AM Eastern Time on November 4th, 2020, which shows 54,497 votes for Joe Biden and 4,718 votes for Donald Trump

Posted in Uncategorized | 2 Comments »

Extreme States

Posted by Jeff Id on November 27, 2020

I find the previous post today more interesting but I wanted to put this up. The following entries in the voting record during the election count were all 4X the rounding error and comprised of at least 85% Biden votes. Basically, I consider the battleground states on this list, to be regions where potential evidence of extreme intentional vote bias exists.

It is an interesting list of hard left voting regions and battleground states and nothing really in between. The DC stuff all came in at the same crazy 95% range so that is normal. Potentially the same situation for areas which border DC.

colorado
connecticut
districtofcolumbia
georgia
illinois
louisiana
maryland
massachusetts
michigan
missouri   
newyork
pennsylvania
virginia
wisconsin

Louisiana through one very large entry which happened right at the end. Look to local races for some of these leftist regions in my opinion. New York and Connecticut are good examples.

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More ‘no-evidence’ to Ponder

Posted by Jeff Id on November 27, 2020

I’ve been continuing to work with this New York Times voting data and have found a number of bits of data which are a bit interesting.

From my previous post, this data is presented as live information to the news outlets. It contains rounding errors which are a bit frustrating but we can still use this data.

In order to avoid critique of this rounding issue, below is Wisconsin data using only data greater than 4x the resolution limit of the rounded data. Most states counted the majority of mail in ballots after the primary count was completed. I used an arbitrary time of 3am local time on the 4th as a divider for the votes.

Green bars below are the number of vote reporting events before 3am on the 4th of larger than 4x the rounding limit in size that fell into the calculated ratio. For example there were 25 entries of votes that landed between .5 and .55 ratio of the Trump/Total Votes. So X axis numbers less than 0.5 are movements toward Biden.

The red bars are the number of votes having larger than 4x the rounding limit after 3am. All three were heavily weighted toward Biden but the one on the farthest left edge was a massive single reporting event which was of a magnitude of 118,000 votes which is 6 times more than enough to flip the vote in Biden’s favor. It is also of a size that is 53 times the rounding error in the Wisconsin vote so you can trust this entry for its rounded accuracy.

Focusing on this single extreme event, the odds that this event would occur at any size level of entry greater than 4x the rounding error were 0.41% based on a normal curve probability distribution.

The story gets even more interesting though. Below is the a histogram of the count size of significant vote reporting events (some of these are small because in early voting there were few votes yet tallied).

Can you guess which event we are talking about?

I didn’t think you would have much trouble. The single largest number of votes reported in Wisconsin is also by percentage, the single most extreme pro-Biden voting event reported in Wisconsin. It is also one of the last events, posted well after the magnitude of Biden’s vote deficit was well known.

Odd’s anyone?

Wisconsin doesn’t allow counting to stop once it is started by state law. This is interesting because many of the mail in ballots would be counted earlier in the day for smaller areas.

Anyway, the magnitude of this event is so large that there are only two possible counties it could have come from in Wisconsin, Milwaukee has 451,000 votes and Dane had about 338,000

Despite Milwaukee having 1.33 times more votes, Dane gained almost 50% more Biden votes than Milwaukee so I am suspicious that this entry came from Dane county. From the linked article:

In Dane and Milwaukee counties, more than 68,000 voters said they were indefinitely confined in 2020, compared to about 17,000 in 2016.

Just to re-explain the details of the mail in vote concerns of normal thinking folks. In Wisconsin, ballots can be submitted by folks to polling places across the entire state. It is up to election workers to validated addresses and signatures. If they don’t match, they are supposed to be rejected. Ballot rejections are a critical part of the voting process and if the rejections don’t happen at all, the vote count can be cheated. If the rejections happen differently from county to county, this can also skew the record. Critically, once the ballots are separated from the envelopes, the forensic history is lost because the names and addresses on the envelopes are no longer associated with the unidentifiable ballots. If fraud were occurring, you could surreptitiously separate the ballots from the envelopes, or perhaps not even use envelopes and create completely untraceable votes. Recounts are useless.

What we have in Wisconsin, is a single, highly skewed, reporting event which was large enough to flip the election. It was the most democrat vote and simultaneously the largest vote batch reported and it was done when the magnitude of the votes needed to flip the election were a known quantity. Also, this report doesn’t meet reasonable criteria at 0.41% probability, to be anywhere near the rest of the votes.

Not quite done yet. In addition, I looked at the direction of votes based on time. We do know that mail-in votes likely came in later but what does the vote magnitude look like over time.

The next graph is total vote ratio Biden/Trump. Above the blue line is Biden winning the total vote count. You can see that in our huge single vote reporting event flipped the election.

After most of the ballots were counted, 5 separate pro-Biden vote entries of significant magnitude were made. This is visible in the graph below:

From about 6am GMT onward, the graph above shows 5 large size voting events for Biden and none strongly for Trump. The last 3 large events were all very strongly for Biden. The dot’s close to the 0 line are large batches of likely absentee votes which went about 50/50 to the candidates.

With my days of time spent in this dataset, I have found a large number of crazy anomalies. Combined with the reports from witnesses and the endless video’s of fraud happening, I’m completely certain that massive election fraud not only existed but did flip this election to Biden. Feel free to draw your own conclusions though.

There is so much more you can find in this single state’s data. If we could get access to the time based reporting of each county with full resolution, a lot of the shenanigans could be quickly and more importantly, accurately identified.

Posted in Uncategorized | 7 Comments »

Vote Anomalies in Pennsylvania

Posted by Jeff Id on November 23, 2020

So we have accusations flying, reports of late night votes being dumped off in Michigan and Pennsylvania that were 100% Biden. Until the affidavits are presented in court, we will see little of what happened.

I did find one site though that had data from the NYT sent by Edison Research group which collects voting data and provides to news agencies as real time as they can. The NYT paid for their service and put all of their data on line. We have individual reporting events for every state as sent to the news media, starting as the polls closed to when the counting stopped.

This post only relates to Pennsylvania but I did do all states. The Pennsylvania data is here. I expected to find some interesting and questionable things, which I did, but this time I was truly surprised and have sent this off to several folks investigating vote fraud.


Pennsylvania Anomaly  —  Edison Research Open Source Data as published by the NYT

Summary: Analysis of the voting night data as reported by Edison Research for various live news and print services revealed significant voting anomalies in Pennsylvania.   Of just over 500 lines of county data reported for the Pennsylvania presidential vote count over the days of vote counting, twenty-five lines of significant one-sided vote movement were identified. The threshold used for locating the significant vote events required an individual reporting event to have greater than 75% of the vote to one candidate or the other.  All lines are shown in the linked spreadsheet.

The 25 Lines were made up of:

  • Ten lines before vote halt at 3:13am EST (8:13am GMT).  Two of which were reversals of each other, and one was a modification to switch approximately 18,000 votes from Trump to Biden. Only seven significant moves were recorded prior to vote halt. 
  • Eighteen lines after reopening of reporting at 5:54am EST (10:54 GMT).  All votes in these 18 entries went 100% to Biden. Eighteen of Eighteen consecutive “anomalously” Biden-only votes.

Total votes recorded for the 18 significant entries:  Trump:-3,733  Biden:    334,086

The negative value for Trump is due to rounding error in Edison Research data. 

  • It is statistically unrealistic to have 18 significant Biden vote entries with no added votes for Trump. 
  • The differential is enough to flip the 81,000 votes in the state election.
  • All 18 of the county reports with zero Trump vote came after 5:54 am EST when absentee ballots were being counted.  No zero Trump votes occurred before the count delay.
  • The last anomalous entry found (line 6967), is the FIRST reported moment when Biden took the lead from Trump.  No additional anomalous votes were detected after that point by this method.

Spreadsheet with data is below. All spreadsheet times are GMT so subtract 5 hours for Eastern Standard.


I have contacted the Trump campaign with this as well as local representatives and True the Vote. Prior to this analysis, I did believe there was massive fraud in this election, I didn’t expect it to be so shockingly obvious in the data.

Now, if Trump has witnesses and affidavits stating that Biden votes were dumped off in large quantities after hours, this is powerful data to back up the claims. This is the factual information not present in the lawsuits to support the witnesses claims that something did happen. This is the best supporting data available of widespread fraud that I have found anywhere simply because this dataset brings more than enough votes to call the election outcome into immediate question in Pennsylvania. I also have supporting data with the same kinds of one sided voting with state flipping magnitude for both Michigan and Georgia.

UPDATE: I need help contacting someone in the Trump campaign. I’ve been in contact with the volunteer vote fraud group and True the vote as well as several lawyers, one employee with a daughter in the White House, local state representatives, and several news sites but I have not successfully reached the campaign legal team as yet. If you can help, it would be greatly appreciated.

Posted in Uncategorized | 5 Comments »

First Time I’ve Been In Agreement

Posted by Jeff Id on October 27, 2020

You think he doesn’t talk about vote fraud concepts all day long. I do. He’s just a little confused — and he told the truth — again.

Secondly, we’re in a situation where we have put together — and you’d guys, did it for our, the president Obama’s administration, before this we have put together, I think, the most extensive and and inclusive voter fraud organization in the history of American politics. What the president is trying to do is discourage people from voting by implying their vote won’t be counted, it can’t be counted, we’re gonna challenge it, and all these things. If enough people vote, it’s gonna overwhelm the system

We’ve been voting for centuries, we know how to do that but the multiple votes per person, he’s prolly right.

Hula-hoop Joe.

You gotta be nuts to vote for this.

Posted in Uncategorized | 3 Comments »

So Joe Biden Got Caught

Posted by Jeff Id on October 17, 2020

Don’t know how this stuff escapes the FBI. The Federal Bureau of Investigations. I mean, they investigate stuff right? Big stuff, doesn’t matter who did it “stuff”. These are powerful people, they can and have made people literally disappear. I have friends in the military who have seen it done.

Nothing goes past these folks. Hell, I was personally outed by the “Guardian” (deserves quotes) a day after the UK anti-terrorist task force contacted me about climategate. Nothing I type goes unnoticed. You either BTW.

But HUNTER and JOE, no problems. Not a single thing wrong with selling influence to Ukraine. Well one thing wrong actually, our PRESIDENT was impeached for asking whether Ukraine would be willing to follow ALBERT GORE’S anti-corruption treaty and look into it.

Shame that.

Still though, the FBI is amazing. Very good people. Such ethic. We should love them.

I however, will not. Oh, Jeff….. Most of them are good people…like 99%……. Bullshit.

Most of them are Washington D.C. Democrats and politically motivated. Not a single “whistle blower”, showed up with these Hunter emails that they had – in their possession while TRUMP dealt with fake impeachment AND a little pandemic. Please note, the Biden’s have not denied the emails are real. Dear FBI — personally from me — you SUCK!! Spectacularly!! Zero faith! You should be immediately terminated from your jobs and assigned to swimming pool deposit collections, which I will be happy to produce for you.

From climategate, we know that it is pretty tricky to fake 30,000 emails.

Dear Hunter, oh Hunter dear, dear Hunter..

Assholes.

Anyone who even thinks Biden is a reasonable choice is a flat effing moron from here out. He’s busted at the highest level of corruption. Selling America for personal money in his pocket.

Hunter Biden demanded Chinese billionaire pay $10 million for ‘introductions alone,’ emails show

10% stake in an unnamed company will go to “the big guy?” The “big guy” was not identified.

From the New York post

New York Post

Hunter to his daughter Naomi —

“I hope you all can do what I did, and pay for everything for this entire family for 30 years and it has been tough. It’s really hard but don’t worry, unlike Pop, I won’t make you give me half your salary.”

Hunter is paying for the family, through his corruption! — for 30 years!!!! The man doesn’t actually have a job but provides for his family…. huh…It’s tough not being rich I guess, but now we know how JOE worked his scam. He used his third rate idiot son to become worth $9 million dollars!!!! Look it up, nothing the man has ever made results in $9 million. Two hundred thousand a year times 47 years is 9.4 million- just to give it perspective.

He saved everything he ever made. Amazing work Joe. I wonder why he has any loans.

This is big. It is real and it is ugly.

If you know the dates, this correlates very nicely with the emails.

Pozharskyi:

My only concern is focus to be on the same page re our final goals. With this in mind, I would like to formulate a list of deliverables, including, but not limited to:

a concrete course of actions, uncle. meetings/communications resulting in high-ranking US officials in Ukraine (US Ambassador) and in US publicly or in private communications.comment expressing their “positive opinion” and support of Nikolay/Burisma to the highest level of decision makers here in Ukraine: President of Ukraine, president of Chief of staff, Prosecutor General etc.”

“The scope of work should also include organization of a visit of widely recognized and influential current and/or former US policy-makers to Ukraine in November aiming to conduct meetings with and bring positive signal/message and support on Nikolay’s issue to the Ukrainian top officials above with the ultimate purpose to close down for any case/pursuits against Nikolay in Ukraine.

Don’t know if we can top this one folks. October non-surprise for me, but wow!! This cannot be matched.

Posted in Uncategorized | 9 Comments »

The SuperSpreader or Dr. Fauci is an idiot.

Posted by Jeff Id on October 10, 2020

https://i.redd.it/sgx14tfcoku31.jpg
Image link – https://www.reddit.com/r/ItemShop/comments/dmosxa/giants_butter_knife_obtained_from_defeating_the/

So I do enjoy stirring things up a little. My last post was Assassination!! Really just to make you think, but I don’t believe it to be unreasonable in any way to assume this Rose garden event could have happened with intent. How many presidents have faced assassination?

Reader Amac78, whose family apparently doesn’t vote right at all (I wouldn’t personally admit to being a Dem these days), left a link to a cool database. We do love data. It’s interesting because it records 1516 superspreader events. That’s a lot in case you are wondering. Some of the data is a little strange and some came from left-wing news propagandists, so I believe it contains some errors however it states the number of ‘cases’ and location and more interestingly classifies the events as Indoor vs Outdoor vs both indoor/outdoor.

Of the 1516 cases 9 were registered unknown and 1 was blank.

Of the 1516 cases 59 were both Indoor and outdoor.

Of the 1516 cases 1443 were indoor events.

Of the 1516 cases 3 were recorded as outdoors.

THREE!!!!

The three events resulted in 26, 11 and 2 “cases” and from the descriptions I personally don’t believe those were completely outdoors either.

Some doctors say the Trump superspreader event happened outdoors in the Rose garden. For the number of outdoor infected folks TRUMP got the world record 35 people infected outside!!! Just before an election!!

How many of you were involved in a superspreader event and just got lucky? Not many I imagine. From the database, there are 192,903 cases recorded in superspreader events. From the Rose Garden event, if we assume that only one tenth of the people got infected at each event that means there were 1.93 million exposed to superspreaders or 1 person in 4000 on earth was in the vicinity of a superspreader event. If you look at the number of people in superspreaders outdoors, we have 2+11+27+ 35 (go Trump) = 75 outdoor superspreader cases. Using that same 10:1 assumed infection rate we have 750 people out of 7.6 billion on earth who were exposed to an outdoor superspreader event.

So basic math shows that we are looking at one in ten million odds that this happened naturally to these (100% COVID tested) people outdoors. Per some of our not-so-amazing doctors, this is what they claim to have happened to the leader of the free world. He was infected outdoors because he didn’t wear a mask – but wait, there’s more. He got the virus. So per my assumptions above, he only had a 1 in 10 chance of that so it is literally one in a hundred million odds for Trump to be infected outdoors in a superspreader event and the single one which just happened to set the world record for number of people infected outdoors. It is worth noting that Trump seems to have taken the worst initial viral load of anyone during this process.

The obvious conclusion: It really didn’t happen that way! The Rose Garden event wasn’t the ‘natural’ culprit because the math doesn’t work.

Either it wasn’t natural or it happened indoors. You really have a lot of difficulty getting the virus outside. Per the superspreader data, 0.2 percent of the events were outdoors, and of the cases 39 of 192,903 in this database gives 0.02 percent chance of catching the virus outdoor vs the rest. Per this database, you are 5000 times more likely to be infected indoors than out. That is what this data means, superspreaders DON’T really happen outdoors. The president’s outdoor event simply didn’t NATURALLY cause the virus to infect a world record number of people outside – in sunlight!! It is NOT true.

However, there was an indoor component to the event, in my opinion this is the most likely explanation but it seems that most everyone did not enter the building. I can’t find a good record of who went inside but from the photos, several of the infected people weren’t photographed inside the building. Kellyanne Conway was one we couldn’t find indoors, there were others.

So let’s talk a little about masks. I’ve been around this thing with no mask since the beginning. They don’t scientifically do anything except they are good for making control freaks feel better and to symbolize their power over our lives. They simply don’t don’t show statistical efficacy for stopping a viral infection. Every actual transmission study I could find had the same conclusion. Undetectable efficacy. Recently I’ve found stupid papers that don’t track actual efficacy but blast small things at filters and make conclusions. Nothing I could find shows less people infected by virus when using masks though. I really believed in masks before, but that’s how science works. If you have a good one, which actually tracks infections in humans, please link it.

This Doctor’s video explains visually why masks fail to stop a virus.

Ten points for anyone who can figure out why this doctors experiment is actually wrong. It does tell an interesting and true story though.

Many of us really aren’t thinking of this virus correctly. Relative to the virus, giant wads of spit 1 micrometer or more in diameter is not the culprit. It’s spreading in a dry diffuse cloud and it takes one good location to embed and infect us through our sinuses or lungs or whatever mucus membrane you medical types can think of. Even when breathed in, we fight it off sometimes just by probabilities of penetrating mucus layers, stomach acids etc.. It only takes one virus to start an infection, but from a probabilistic standpoint, a lot of active virus is usually required to initiate an infection.

I also am currently of the understanding that this isn’t as novel as it is supposed to be and some have a bit of natural immunity but that is based on the values in the SEIR modeling and how it fits to our actual data in Michigan and NewYork. Both states locked down hard, threw our elderly (and young) out of the hospitals and into nursing homes, didn’t allow people to move outside of their enclosed air environments and both performed HORRIBLY from a statistical standpoint. Very hard initial deaths followed by near immunity. The immunity level is behavior based, behavior changes modify the coefficients of the infection models. In Michigan we went outside when it got warmer and less people were being infected than were recovering and deaths went down. We started huge testing at that point and the leftists used the increase in detected cases to keep the fake panic going all the way until the election. Deaths did not go up with infections whatsoever.

This low death rate will continue until at least until we all run back inside and re-densify our population for winter (we are doing that right now). We might see some return in Michigan and New York at that point but many have already been ‘vaccinated by GOD’TM at this point. Florida is an example of low initial deaths because they were outside, followed by higher deaths when it got too hot.

Below is some supporting data to consider.

Michigan and New York. Locked down, infections spiked hard. It was too cold to go outside so those with the virus were sitting there making clouds of dry virus float around our houses, infecting their families and then heading out to the stores. Below is a graph of deaths, because we didn’t have much testing during the peak, we can’t use cases. Cases are high right now in Michigan but testing has gone completely bonkers in search of more cases. Deaths are the trend we need to watch for effectiveness of measures, even though you can see by the disclaimer at the top of the below graph, the government is absolutely making it look as bad as they can. A perfect SEIR response curve indicating near immunity – potentially until behavior changes to indoor living.

Michigan
New York

The next graph is of Florida. It gets too hot in July to go outside. Everyone stays indoors so initially they had very low infections despite almost no measures being taken, then they started getting cases as heat increased and of course the government made the wrong call and locked the state down.

Florida

So there you have it, per all of the data, hard lockdown indoors equates to increased infection and masks won’t help you. We now know that the latitude plot I did early in May was behavior based as I suspected at the time.

I’m thinking that this must be caused by behavior. I know that we stay in during the cold months and head into the sunlight when it is warm.

Jeff Id – May 8

The superspreader data and various graphs I’ve shown are as close to proof as you can find that we need to be outdoors as much as possible to keep viruses from spreading. High ventilation works, masks don’t work (at best), and may help exposed people recycle the virus until infected. After all, the stupid cloud you breathed in through your mask just left your body when you breathed out(natural defense mechanism), why do you want to catch some of it in a cloth and suck it back down?

We know that if this Trump superspreader event happened outside, it is most likely of nefarious origin because it has 100 million to one odds of happening to you or I, let alone the leader of the free world in a 100% COVID tested population. If it happened inside, it could be natural but is still incredibly unlikely for any of us to experience, again let alone the leader of the free world hanging around a 100% COVID tested population. Masks make little difference but spacing out and not sitting in a poorly ventilated office will help!!

What are the odds that the president naturally took the strongest initial viral load?

Can this event happen naturally, sure. Did it happen naturally? Does anyone have a list of who went indoors during this event? We do know, it statistically did not happen naturally outside.

So this is a quote from an article on Fauchi:

We had a superspreader event in the White House, and it was in a situation where people were crowded together and were not wearing masks,” Fauci said on CBS News radio.

The nation’s top infectious disease expert was referring to the fallout from the Sept. 26 garden ceremony, after nearly a dozen people who attended contracted COVID-19. 

Fauci is an idiot. Q.E.D.

Posted in Uncategorized | 7 Comments »

Assassination

Posted by Jeff Id on October 3, 2020

So Trump has COVID. He followed all CDC guidelines, still got it. The problem I have is that I’ve seen COVID and while it is very very contagious, it cannot infect 12 people or however many there actually were in contact during debate preparations —- AT THE SAME TIME!!!.

Oh Jeff, you don’t understand. If you are in a room with an infectious person…….

TWELVE plus people folks.

Worse than that Trump took the biggest hit of all of them.

Tell me. Tell me please!!! ANY incident where there was a house party or some other nonsense having 100 plus people, way more than the debate prep, with ANYONE positive that resulted in 12 cases. We don’t know the real number yet, but it is over 10 only because not all is reported.

LET me TELL you….. THIS VIRUS DOES NOT WORK THAT WAY!!!!!

It does not.

Infection, almost never happens like that. Some might get it, but twelve is statistically unrealistic. Think of the last time you heard of twelve. Imagine the odds of of that happening to the President four weeks before an election with debates right now.

The worst COVID case in the group…… THE #1 worst. President Trump…. He received the highest viral load. What a coincidence!! How amazing!!

Symptoms get bad with high immediate viral load.

This was an assassination attempt folks. Think about it for a moment. You need to deliver virus. A cloud of dead stuff. You need to deliver a lot of it. The only way you ensure success is to deliver enough. But fifty nanometers is very small. You choose a location, you choose a delivery mechanism, you do the deed and all of a sudden you have a dozen conservatives participating in debate preparation all sick. All within the same couple of days.

It is NOT reasonable to assume this was nature. Not when everyone is tested before meeting the president, not when the virus requires a fair concentration to cause infection in the first place. It’s not reasonable to assume nature did this.

The virus is scary but it does not work that way naturally folks. Dozens of people don’t get it at once, mask or not. It would take a huge concentration of virus to get the simultaneous same day infections we are seeing. It is statistically unrealistic. I’ve had several cases in my office, all spaced many weeks apart. Despite days of maskless exposure, despite month long delayed testing, no masks, nobody spread it. The point is that we’ve witnessed an assassination attempt, there is no other way to interpret this data. This was yet another attempt to thwart the election and the viral load given to the president was massive or else few others would have gotten it.

It may come out in time but in the meantime, pay attention. We are losing this country to the authoritarian left. They tried to kill Trump and whomever was helping him. I doubt very much that China was the one but they may have been, the political timing with debates suggests deep state folks.

It doesn’t get better from here without some prosecution. Please commence with the tinfoil hat beatings.

Posted in Uncategorized | 8 Comments »

You Can’t Make This Stuff Up

Posted by Jeff Id on July 23, 2020

Even Orwell couldn’t have predicted the state of our world.  The riots, masks and lies are all in competition for who can spread the fastest.   All of it due to an election where the candidate running against the president literally has dementia.   Real actual dementia, not the pretend kind that the media lies about with respect to Trump.

Biden Actually Said This: “I Had Nurses at Walter Reed Hospital Who Would Bend Down and Whisper in my Ear…Breathe in My Nostrils to Get Me Moving” (VIDEO) 

A complete fabrication of reality, right during an interview – from his basement – which he will not leave.

In case you are wondering,  that is effing stupid beyond reality.

Then we have Gretchen Whitmer who’s totalitarianism has been on full display since the legislature gave her 1 month of executive authority which she has extended indefinitely, thanks to some left wing Detroit judge making up law.   Gretchen single handedly has decided to defund the state police and department of corrections.   This blatant stupidity is as bad as taking elderly critical care people from the hospitals and stuffing them in nursing homes where there are no doctors – which she also did.  Plenty of trolls in threads are saying she was required to balance the budget so she did a lot of things.  Unfortunately, while she did de-fund other things, the numbers matter and that tells a different story.

Executive order 2020-157 (more than one per day including weekends) is based on a requirement that the state balance the budget, which this cannot do.  Our shortfalls are much larger than this EO, which is for $619,989,600.

Of the 620 million 507,739,200 came from the department of corrections and state police.  A whopping 81.8% of her executive order came from the police to correct for a budget deficit caused by unnecessary shutdowns of the economy.  Most of the money was taken directly from the overloaded corrections facilities. No laws have been changed to reduce occupancy of these facilities, just the funding.  You might ask how much of their budget is that?  Good question.

Here is a link to the state police budget briefing for Michigan in 2019.

So there was 777,900,000 in total funding for the state police.   Of that 115,070,100 has been cut or 14.7 percent less total budget to work with.   Of the state general funds, this represents a 23% reduction from the general fund.

Look at that tiny little green slice the state police represents.  Of that whole circle, this is where she decided to take money to reduce the budget. We have 25 billion in health and human services, but we’re going to defund the police.

You can see the department of corrections represents 2,019,056,200 or 2 billion dollars.   This was the primary cut she made and she took 392,669,100 or 19.4% of their budget –gone.   A truly massive change for a single year.   If you had the job of making this decision, can you truly imagine doing it this stupidly?   It is clearly political but the insanity of the Democrat party has reached new heights. We have riots which are being allowed, masks with zero science driving them, unnecessary and ineffective economic shutdowns, blocking of drugs that work for COVID.  Nobody sane can actually want this kind of governance.   Sure, I would like to see correction reform but to simply take the money and leave the same rules in place is pure insanity.

We have sheriffs who have refused to enforce the constant executive orders, not because they object but because there are too many to figure out what you are supposed to do.   They contradict, are constantly being rescinded and replaced.  Hell we had a huge one come out on a Monday and was replaced in its entirety on Thursday.  Over 30K in legal fees just trying to comply.  Completely nuts.

Why people?  I know some of you are really truly committed to the name Democrat, I hated it before but this ‘party’ is not even close to what it once was.  At least they dropped the bigoted lawmaking nonsense that they pushed on African descended people and randomly assigned their own history to conservatives. The cheat-by-mail fraud in this election will be catastrophic and likely the next big disaster created by these fools.  I have applications for ballots from previous homeowners, but I won’t use them.  I know of one person who lives in an apartment and received 7 applications.  Democrats will use them, and the politicians know it.

The constitution matters, laws matter as written, the judicial activism and totalitarianism are not going to be accepted without a fight and that fight may go beyond the ballot box.  Common sense matters, all lives matter, people matter but black lives matter is a Marxist front group for Democrat funding.  This Marxism and totalitarianism is on full display now, and also matters and cannot be allowed.

A little common sense wouldn’t hurt.

 

 

 

Posted in Uncategorized | 6 Comments »

Good Quality Paper Demonstrates Strong Efficacy of Hydroxychloroquine. Mortality rate cut in half!

Posted by Jeff Id on July 3, 2020

Treatment with Hydroxychloroquine, Azithromycin, and Combination in Patients Hospitalized with COVID-19

A new study of over 2000 hospitalized patients reveals that Hydroxychloroquine works very well in treatment of COVID.  The reason I’m so excited about this one is because unlike the poor studies that I’ve written about already, this study controlled the dosages, use the correct levels of HCQ and Azythromycin per other studies, and matched patients to each other by their own health situations.  This matching of health condition is the proper method to control the confounding factors in a situation where testing cannot be double-blind.  The health of the patient is what the frustratingly fake studies didn’t correct for, but certain political pressures made them popular.

This is absolutely the most conclusive research produced to date by anyone, due mostly to the quality of the approach.  No one has published this quality level of work on HCQ on humans prior to this.

HCQ reduced deaths by half from the untreated patients.

Of note, this was a very large study:

The results of this study demonstrate that in a strictly monitored protocol-driven in-hospital setting, treatment with hydroxychloroquine alone and hydroxychloroquine + azithromycin was associated with a significant reduction in mortality among patients hospitalized with COVID-19. In this study, among one of the largest COVID-19 hospital patient cohorts (n = 2,541) assembled in a single institution, overall in-hospital COVID-19 associated mortality was 18.1% reflecting a high prevalence of co-morbid conditions in COVID-19 patients admitted to our institution.

And Safe:

To mitigate potential limitations associated with missing or inaccurate documentation in electronic medical records, we manually reviewed all deaths to confirm the primary mortality outcome and ascertain the cause of death. A review of our COVID-19 mortality data demonstrated no major cardiac arrhythmias; specifically, no torsades de pointes that has been observed with hydroxychloroquine treatment.

My bold of course.  That means that HCQ is still not dangerous folks!!

Look at this powerful result:

The Cox regression result for the two propensity matched groups (Table 4) indicates that treatment with hydroxychloroquine resulted in a mortality hazard ratio decrease of 51% (p = 0.009). The resulting Kaplan-Meier survival curves within the propensity matched setting displayed significantly better survival in the hydroxychloroquine treated group, with the enhanced survival persisting all the way out to 28 days from admission (Fig. 2).

Also:

 

I found it very interesting that the Azythromycin didn’t work as well in combination with HCQ but it did better by itself than no treatment.  I also found it a little overly deferential in its recognition of the bad papers which others have produced, but those who know me probably aren’t surprised by that.

I want to thank all of these researchers who did their job so well.  Saving lives the right way.

Samia Arshad, Paul Kilgore, Zohra S. Chaudhry, Gordon Jacobsen, Dee Dee Wang, Kylie Huitsing, Indira Brar, George J. Alangaden, Mayur S. Ramesh, John E. McKinnon, William O’Neill, Marcus Zervos, Henry Ford COVID-19 Task Force<ce:author-group id=”aug0010″>, Varidhi Nauriyal, Asif Abdul Hamed, Owais Nadeem, Jennifer Swiderek, Amanda Godfrey, Jeffrey Jennings, Jayna Gardner-Gray, Adam M Ackerman, Jonathan Lezotte, Joseph Ruhala, Raef Fadel, Amit Vahia, Smitha Gudipati, Tommy Parraga, Anita Shallal, Gina Maki, Zain Tariq, Geehan Suleyman, Nicholas Yared, Erica Herc, Johnathan Williams, Odaliz Abreu Lanfranco, Pallavi Bhargava, Katherine Reyes, Anne Chen

Well done!

Posted in Uncategorized | 11 Comments »

They REALLY Want It.

Posted by Jeff Id on July 1, 2020

New study on Antarctica makes all kinds of claims of global doom.  The newspapers are all out there saying the Antarctic is melting.  It feels like Steig 2.0.  It’s also in Nature — yet again.

From WUWT

 

So Amundsen Scott was dead flat back in 2009- which is what triggered the Antarctic blog wars.  Looking at the data it’s quite a jump in recent years.  —  My first thought was that it looks a lot like hockey stick blended data.  The abstract reads like a political add for global doom.

Over the last three decades, the South Pole has experienced a record-high statistically significant warming of 0.61 ± 0.34 °C per decade, more than three times the global average. Here, we use an ensemble of climate model experiments to show this recent warming lies within the upper bounds of the simulated range of natural variability. The warming resulted from a strong cyclonic anomaly in the Weddell Sea caused by increasing sea surface temperatures in the western tropical Pacific. This circulation, coupled with a positive polarity of the Southern Annular Mode, advected warm and moist air from the South Atlantic into the Antarctic interior. These results underscore the intimate linkage of interior Antarctic climate to tropical variability. Further, this study shows that atmospheric internal variability can induce extreme regional climate change over the Antarctic interior, which has masked any anthropogenic warming signal there during the twenty-first century.

We know the first sentence is a flat out lie. Trends have been stubbornly flat and they DON’T fit model predictions.   This is a huge bone of contention because without the Antarctic warming, the climate models are junk.  So I went straight to the temperature data.   My climate software is pretty old and working with it is a bit clunky so I went to RIMFROST, which posts raw temperature data from different stations.  In the actual thermometer data, there is a lack of significant upturn even to 2019 and is visually inconsistent with the new fake-doom article.  The south pole will not be melting soon folks – cause it is very very cold.   If someone has access to this wonderful article, I would love to read the magic even though I will likely be dumber for it.  I’m guessing special filtering makes the 2018 data point shoot right up even over 2013 like that.  Looking at the other end of the series 1957 exhibits the same departure from reality. We have seen that same mathmagic before, whereas in the thermometer data 2018 is below 2013. Without seeing the paper it’s only guessing on my part but the end point jumping that differently is a huge clue.   Magnitudes through the rest of the series are very similar.

Looking closely, they amazingly found a nearly 1C jump in 2018 compared to the 0.5C per the actual thermometer.  Of course that is the strongest point on a linear least squares trend.  Due to the oddness of the differences and past experience with alarmists, I would further ‘guess’ that the whole trend loses statistical significance when things are properly adjusted.

 

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Hydroxychlorquine Azythromycin Still Showing Success

Posted by Jeff Id on May 8, 2020

New study on Coronavirus patients describing outcomes and risk factors.  This is a very positive study despite the subdued language.  My understanding is that this is part of standard recommended treatment in South Korea now.

Posted in Uncategorized | 4 Comments »