the Air Vent

Because the world needs another opinion

First Time I’ve Been In Agreement

Posted by Jeff Id on October 27, 2020

You think he doesn’t talk about vote fraud concepts all day long. I do. He’s just a little confused — and he told the truth — again.

Secondly, we’re in a situation where we have put together — and you’d guys, did it for our, the president Obama’s administration, before this we have put together, I think, the most extensive and and inclusive voter fraud organization in the history of American politics. What the president is trying to do is discourage people from voting by implying their vote won’t be counted, it can’t be counted, we’re gonna challenge it, and all these things. If enough people vote, it’s gonna overwhelm the system

We’ve been voting for centuries, we know how to do that but the multiple votes per person, he’s prolly right.

Hula-hoop Joe.

You gotta be nuts to vote for this.


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So Joe Biden Got Caught

Posted by Jeff Id on October 17, 2020

Don’t know how this stuff escapes the FBI. The Federal Bureau of Investigations. I mean, they investigate stuff right? Big stuff, doesn’t matter who did it “stuff”. These are powerful people, they can and have made people literally disappear. I have friends in the military who have seen it done.

Nothing goes past these folks. Hell, I was personally outed by the “Guardian” (deserves quotes) a day after the UK anti-terrorist task force contacted me about climategate. Nothing I type goes unnoticed. You either BTW.

But HUNTER and JOE, no problems. Not a single thing wrong with selling influence to Ukraine. Well one thing wrong actually, our PRESIDENT was impeached for asking whether Ukraine would be willing to follow ALBERT GORE’S anti-corruption treaty and look into it.

Shame that.

Still though, the FBI is amazing. Very good people. Such ethic. We should love them.

I however, will not. Oh, Jeff….. Most of them are good people…like 99%……. Bullshit.

Most of them are Washington D.C. Democrats and politically motivated. Not a single “whistle blower”, showed up with these Hunter emails that they had – in their possession while TRUMP dealt with fake impeachment AND a little pandemic. Please note, the Biden’s have not denied the emails are real. Dear FBI — personally from me — you SUCK!! Spectacularly!! Zero faith! You should be immediately terminated from your jobs and assigned to swimming pool deposit collections, which I will be happy to produce for you.

From climategate, we know that it is pretty tricky to fake 30,000 emails.

Dear Hunter, oh Hunter dear, dear Hunter..

Assholes.

Anyone who even thinks Biden is a reasonable choice is a flat effing moron from here out. He’s busted at the highest level of corruption. Selling America for personal money in his pocket.

Hunter Biden demanded Chinese billionaire pay $10 million for ‘introductions alone,’ emails show

10% stake in an unnamed company will go to “the big guy?” The “big guy” was not identified.

From the New York post

New York Post

Hunter to his daughter Naomi —

“I hope you all can do what I did, and pay for everything for this entire family for 30 years and it has been tough. It’s really hard but don’t worry, unlike Pop, I won’t make you give me half your salary.”

Hunter is paying for the family, through his corruption! — for 30 years!!!! The man doesn’t actually have a job but provides for his family…. huh…It’s tough not being rich I guess, but now we know how JOE worked his scam. He used his third rate idiot son to become worth $9 million dollars!!!! Look it up, nothing the man has ever made results in $9 million. Two hundred thousand a year times 47 years is 9.4 million- just to give it perspective.

He saved everything he ever made. Amazing work Joe. I wonder why he has any loans.

This is big. It is real and it is ugly.

If you know the dates, this correlates very nicely with the emails.

Pozharskyi:

My only concern is focus to be on the same page re our final goals. With this in mind, I would like to formulate a list of deliverables, including, but not limited to:

a concrete course of actions, uncle. meetings/communications resulting in high-ranking US officials in Ukraine (US Ambassador) and in US publicly or in private communications.comment expressing their “positive opinion” and support of Nikolay/Burisma to the highest level of decision makers here in Ukraine: President of Ukraine, president of Chief of staff, Prosecutor General etc.”

“The scope of work should also include organization of a visit of widely recognized and influential current and/or former US policy-makers to Ukraine in November aiming to conduct meetings with and bring positive signal/message and support on Nikolay’s issue to the Ukrainian top officials above with the ultimate purpose to close down for any case/pursuits against Nikolay in Ukraine.

Don’t know if we can top this one folks. October non-surprise for me, but wow!! This cannot be matched.

Posted in Uncategorized | 9 Comments »

The SuperSpreader or Dr. Fauci is an idiot.

Posted by Jeff Id on October 10, 2020

https://i.redd.it/sgx14tfcoku31.jpg
Image link – https://www.reddit.com/r/ItemShop/comments/dmosxa/giants_butter_knife_obtained_from_defeating_the/

So I do enjoy stirring things up a little. My last post was Assassination!! Really just to make you think, but I don’t believe it to be unreasonable in any way to assume this Rose garden event could have happened with intent. How many presidents have faced assassination?

Reader Amac78, whose family apparently doesn’t vote right at all (I wouldn’t personally admit to being a Dem these days), left a link to a cool database. We do love data. It’s interesting because it records 1516 superspreader events. That’s a lot in case you are wondering. Some of the data is a little strange and some came from left-wing news propagandists, so I believe it contains some errors however it states the number of ‘cases’ and location and more interestingly classifies the events as Indoor vs Outdoor vs both indoor/outdoor.

Of the 1516 cases 9 were registered unknown and 1 was blank.

Of the 1516 cases 59 were both Indoor and outdoor.

Of the 1516 cases 1443 were indoor events.

Of the 1516 cases 3 were recorded as outdoors.

THREE!!!!

The three events resulted in 26, 11 and 2 “cases” and from the descriptions I personally don’t believe those were completely outdoors either.

Some doctors say the Trump superspreader event happened outdoors in the Rose garden. For the number of outdoor infected folks TRUMP got the world record 35 people infected outside!!! Just before an election!!

How many of you were involved in a superspreader event and just got lucky? Not many I imagine. From the database, there are 192,903 cases recorded in superspreader events. From the Rose Garden event, if we assume that only one tenth of the people got infected at each event that means there were 1.93 million exposed to superspreaders or 1 person in 4000 on earth was in the vicinity of a superspreader event. If you look at the number of people in superspreaders outdoors, we have 2+11+27+ 35 (go Trump) = 75 outdoor superspreader cases. Using that same 10:1 assumed infection rate we have 750 people out of 7.6 billion on earth who were exposed to an outdoor superspreader event.

So basic math shows that we are looking at one in ten million odds that this happened naturally to these (100% COVID tested) people outdoors. Per some of our not-so-amazing doctors, this is what they claim to have happened to the leader of the free world. He was infected outdoors because he didn’t wear a mask – but wait, there’s more. He got the virus. So per my assumptions above, he only had a 1 in 10 chance of that so it is literally one in a hundred million odds for Trump to be infected outdoors in a superspreader event and the single one which just happened to set the world record for number of people infected outdoors. It is worth noting that Trump seems to have taken the worst initial viral load of anyone during this process.

The obvious conclusion: It really didn’t happen that way! The Rose Garden event wasn’t the ‘natural’ culprit because the math doesn’t work.

Either it wasn’t natural or it happened indoors. You really have a lot of difficulty getting the virus outside. Per the superspreader data, 0.2 percent of the events were outdoors, and of the cases 39 of 192,903 in this database gives 0.02 percent chance of catching the virus outdoor vs the rest. Per this database, you are 5000 times more likely to be infected indoors than out. That is what this data means, superspreaders DON’T really happen outdoors. The president’s outdoor event simply didn’t NATURALLY cause the virus to infect a world record number of people outside – in sunlight!! It is NOT true.

However, there was an indoor component to the event, in my opinion this is the most likely explanation but it seems that most everyone did not enter the building. I can’t find a good record of who went inside but from the photos, several of the infected people weren’t photographed inside the building. Kellyanne Conway was one we couldn’t find indoors, there were others.

So let’s talk a little about masks. I’ve been around this thing with no mask since the beginning. They don’t scientifically do anything except they are good for making control freaks feel better and to symbolize their power over our lives. They simply don’t don’t show statistical efficacy for stopping a viral infection. Every actual transmission study I could find had the same conclusion. Undetectable efficacy. Recently I’ve found stupid papers that don’t track actual efficacy but blast small things at filters and make conclusions. Nothing I could find shows less people infected by virus when using masks though. I really believed in masks before, but that’s how science works. If you have a good one, which actually tracks infections in humans, please link it.

This Doctor’s video explains visually why masks fail to stop a virus.

Ten points for anyone who can figure out why this doctors experiment is actually wrong. It does tell an interesting and true story though.

Many of us really aren’t thinking of this virus correctly. Relative to the virus, giant wads of spit 1 micrometer or more in diameter is not the culprit. It’s spreading in a dry diffuse cloud and it takes one good location to embed and infect us through our sinuses or lungs or whatever mucus membrane you medical types can think of. Even when breathed in, we fight it off sometimes just by probabilities of penetrating mucus layers, stomach acids etc.. It only takes one virus to start an infection, but from a probabilistic standpoint, a lot of active virus is usually required to initiate an infection.

I also am currently of the understanding that this isn’t as novel as it is supposed to be and some have a bit of natural immunity but that is based on the values in the SEIR modeling and how it fits to our actual data in Michigan and NewYork. Both states locked down hard, threw our elderly (and young) out of the hospitals and into nursing homes, didn’t allow people to move outside of their enclosed air environments and both performed HORRIBLY from a statistical standpoint. Very hard initial deaths followed by near immunity. The immunity level is behavior based, behavior changes modify the coefficients of the infection models. In Michigan we went outside when it got warmer and less people were being infected than were recovering and deaths went down. We started huge testing at that point and the leftists used the increase in detected cases to keep the fake panic going all the way until the election. Deaths did not go up with infections whatsoever.

This low death rate will continue until at least until we all run back inside and re-densify our population for winter (we are doing that right now). We might see some return in Michigan and New York at that point but many have already been ‘vaccinated by GOD’TM at this point. Florida is an example of low initial deaths because they were outside, followed by higher deaths when it got too hot.

Below is some supporting data to consider.

Michigan and New York. Locked down, infections spiked hard. It was too cold to go outside so those with the virus were sitting there making clouds of dry virus float around our houses, infecting their families and then heading out to the stores. Below is a graph of deaths, because we didn’t have much testing during the peak, we can’t use cases. Cases are high right now in Michigan but testing has gone completely bonkers in search of more cases. Deaths are the trend we need to watch for effectiveness of measures, even though you can see by the disclaimer at the top of the below graph, the government is absolutely making it look as bad as they can. A perfect SEIR response curve indicating near immunity – potentially until behavior changes to indoor living.

Michigan
New York

The next graph is of Florida. It gets too hot in July to go outside. Everyone stays indoors so initially they had very low infections despite almost no measures being taken, then they started getting cases as heat increased and of course the government made the wrong call and locked the state down.

Florida

So there you have it, per all of the data, hard lockdown indoors equates to increased infection and masks won’t help you. We now know that the latitude plot I did early in May was behavior based as I suspected at the time.

I’m thinking that this must be caused by behavior. I know that we stay in during the cold months and head into the sunlight when it is warm.

Jeff Id – May 8

The superspreader data and various graphs I’ve shown are as close to proof as you can find that we need to be outdoors as much as possible to keep viruses from spreading. High ventilation works, masks don’t work (at best), and may help exposed people recycle the virus until infected. After all, the stupid cloud you breathed in through your mask just left your body when you breathed out(natural defense mechanism), why do you want to catch some of it in a cloth and suck it back down?

We know that if this Trump superspreader event happened outside, it is most likely of nefarious origin because it has 100 million to one odds of happening to you or I, let alone the leader of the free world in a 100% COVID tested population. If it happened inside, it could be natural but is still incredibly unlikely for any of us to experience, again let alone the leader of the free world hanging around a 100% COVID tested population. Masks make little difference but spacing out and not sitting in a poorly ventilated office will help!!

What are the odds that the president naturally took the strongest initial viral load?

Can this event happen naturally, sure. Did it happen naturally? Does anyone have a list of who went indoors during this event? We do know, it statistically did not happen naturally outside.

So this is a quote from an article on Fauchi:

We had a superspreader event in the White House, and it was in a situation where people were crowded together and were not wearing masks,” Fauci said on CBS News radio.

The nation’s top infectious disease expert was referring to the fallout from the Sept. 26 garden ceremony, after nearly a dozen people who attended contracted COVID-19. 

Fauci is an idiot. Q.E.D.

Posted in Uncategorized | 7 Comments »

Assassination

Posted by Jeff Id on October 3, 2020

So Trump has COVID. He followed all CDC guidelines, still got it. The problem I have is that I’ve seen COVID and while it is very very contagious, it cannot infect 12 people or however many there actually were in contact during debate preparations —- AT THE SAME TIME!!!.

Oh Jeff, you don’t understand. If you are in a room with an infectious person…….

TWELVE plus people folks.

Worse than that Trump took the biggest hit of all of them.

Tell me. Tell me please!!! ANY incident where there was a house party or some other nonsense having 100 plus people, way more than the debate prep, with ANYONE positive that resulted in 12 cases. We don’t know the real number yet, but it is over 10 only because not all is reported.

LET me TELL you….. THIS VIRUS DOES NOT WORK THAT WAY!!!!!

It does not.

Infection, almost never happens like that. Some might get it, but twelve is statistically unrealistic. Think of the last time you heard of twelve. Imagine the odds of of that happening to the President four weeks before an election with debates right now.

The worst COVID case in the group…… THE #1 worst. President Trump…. He received the highest viral load. What a coincidence!! How amazing!!

Symptoms get bad with high immediate viral load.

This was an assassination attempt folks. Think about it for a moment. You need to deliver virus. A cloud of dead stuff. You need to deliver a lot of it. The only way you ensure success is to deliver enough. But fifty nanometers is very small. You choose a location, you choose a delivery mechanism, you do the deed and all of a sudden you have a dozen conservatives participating in debate preparation all sick. All within the same couple of days.

It is NOT reasonable to assume this was nature. Not when everyone is tested before meeting the president, not when the virus requires a fair concentration to cause infection in the first place. It’s not reasonable to assume nature did this.

The virus is scary but it does not work that way naturally folks. Dozens of people don’t get it at once, mask or not. It would take a huge concentration of virus to get the simultaneous same day infections we are seeing. It is statistically unrealistic. I’ve had several cases in my office, all spaced many weeks apart. Despite days of maskless exposure, despite month long delayed testing, no masks, nobody spread it. The point is that we’ve witnessed an assassination attempt, there is no other way to interpret this data. This was yet another attempt to thwart the election and the viral load given to the president was massive or else few others would have gotten it.

It may come out in time but in the meantime, pay attention. We are losing this country to the authoritarian left. They tried to kill Trump and whomever was helping him. I doubt very much that China was the one but they may have been, the political timing with debates suggests deep state folks.

It doesn’t get better from here without some prosecution. Please commence with the tinfoil hat beatings.

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You Can’t Make This Stuff Up

Posted by Jeff Id on July 23, 2020

Even Orwell couldn’t have predicted the state of our world.  The riots, masks and lies are all in competition for who can spread the fastest.   All of it due to an election where the candidate running against the president literally has dementia.   Real actual dementia, not the pretend kind that the media lies about with respect to Trump.

Biden Actually Said This: “I Had Nurses at Walter Reed Hospital Who Would Bend Down and Whisper in my Ear…Breathe in My Nostrils to Get Me Moving” (VIDEO) 

A complete fabrication of reality, right during an interview – from his basement – which he will not leave.

In case you are wondering,  that is effing stupid beyond reality.

Then we have Gretchen Whitmer who’s totalitarianism has been on full display since the legislature gave her 1 month of executive authority which she has extended indefinitely, thanks to some left wing Detroit judge making up law.   Gretchen single handedly has decided to defund the state police and department of corrections.   This blatant stupidity is as bad as taking elderly critical care people from the hospitals and stuffing them in nursing homes where there are no doctors – which she also did.  Plenty of trolls in threads are saying she was required to balance the budget so she did a lot of things.  Unfortunately, while she did de-fund other things, the numbers matter and that tells a different story.

Executive order 2020-157 (more than one per day including weekends) is based on a requirement that the state balance the budget, which this cannot do.  Our shortfalls are much larger than this EO, which is for $619,989,600.

Of the 620 million 507,739,200 came from the department of corrections and state police.  A whopping 81.8% of her executive order came from the police to correct for a budget deficit caused by unnecessary shutdowns of the economy.  Most of the money was taken directly from the overloaded corrections facilities. No laws have been changed to reduce occupancy of these facilities, just the funding.  You might ask how much of their budget is that?  Good question.

Here is a link to the state police budget briefing for Michigan in 2019.

So there was 777,900,000 in total funding for the state police.   Of that 115,070,100 has been cut or 14.7 percent less total budget to work with.   Of the state general funds, this represents a 23% reduction from the general fund.

Look at that tiny little green slice the state police represents.  Of that whole circle, this is where she decided to take money to reduce the budget. We have 25 billion in health and human services, but we’re going to defund the police.

You can see the department of corrections represents 2,019,056,200 or 2 billion dollars.   This was the primary cut she made and she took 392,669,100 or 19.4% of their budget –gone.   A truly massive change for a single year.   If you had the job of making this decision, can you truly imagine doing it this stupidly?   It is clearly political but the insanity of the Democrat party has reached new heights. We have riots which are being allowed, masks with zero science driving them, unnecessary and ineffective economic shutdowns, blocking of drugs that work for COVID.  Nobody sane can actually want this kind of governance.   Sure, I would like to see correction reform but to simply take the money and leave the same rules in place is pure insanity.

We have sheriffs who have refused to enforce the constant executive orders, not because they object but because there are too many to figure out what you are supposed to do.   They contradict, are constantly being rescinded and replaced.  Hell we had a huge one come out on a Monday and was replaced in its entirety on Thursday.  Over 30K in legal fees just trying to comply.  Completely nuts.

Why people?  I know some of you are really truly committed to the name Democrat, I hated it before but this ‘party’ is not even close to what it once was.  At least they dropped the bigoted lawmaking nonsense that they pushed on African descended people and randomly assigned their own history to conservatives. The cheat-by-mail fraud in this election will be catastrophic and likely the next big disaster created by these fools.  I have applications for ballots from previous homeowners, but I won’t use them.  I know of one person who lives in an apartment and received 7 applications.  Democrats will use them, and the politicians know it.

The constitution matters, laws matter as written, the judicial activism and totalitarianism are not going to be accepted without a fight and that fight may go beyond the ballot box.  Common sense matters, all lives matter, people matter but black lives matter is a Marxist front group for Democrat funding.  This Marxism and totalitarianism is on full display now, and also matters and cannot be allowed.

A little common sense wouldn’t hurt.

 

 

 

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Good Quality Paper Demonstrates Strong Efficacy of Hydroxychloroquine. Mortality rate cut in half!

Posted by Jeff Id on July 3, 2020

Treatment with Hydroxychloroquine, Azithromycin, and Combination in Patients Hospitalized with COVID-19

A new study of over 2000 hospitalized patients reveals that Hydroxychloroquine works very well in treatment of COVID.  The reason I’m so excited about this one is because unlike the poor studies that I’ve written about already, this study controlled the dosages, use the correct levels of HCQ and Azythromycin per other studies, and matched patients to each other by their own health situations.  This matching of health condition is the proper method to control the confounding factors in a situation where testing cannot be double-blind.  The health of the patient is what the frustratingly fake studies didn’t correct for, but certain political pressures made them popular.

This is absolutely the most conclusive research produced to date by anyone, due mostly to the quality of the approach.  No one has published this quality level of work on HCQ on humans prior to this.

HCQ reduced deaths by half from the untreated patients.

Of note, this was a very large study:

The results of this study demonstrate that in a strictly monitored protocol-driven in-hospital setting, treatment with hydroxychloroquine alone and hydroxychloroquine + azithromycin was associated with a significant reduction in mortality among patients hospitalized with COVID-19. In this study, among one of the largest COVID-19 hospital patient cohorts (n = 2,541) assembled in a single institution, overall in-hospital COVID-19 associated mortality was 18.1% reflecting a high prevalence of co-morbid conditions in COVID-19 patients admitted to our institution.

And Safe:

To mitigate potential limitations associated with missing or inaccurate documentation in electronic medical records, we manually reviewed all deaths to confirm the primary mortality outcome and ascertain the cause of death. A review of our COVID-19 mortality data demonstrated no major cardiac arrhythmias; specifically, no torsades de pointes that has been observed with hydroxychloroquine treatment.

My bold of course.  That means that HCQ is still not dangerous folks!!

Look at this powerful result:

The Cox regression result for the two propensity matched groups (Table 4) indicates that treatment with hydroxychloroquine resulted in a mortality hazard ratio decrease of 51% (p = 0.009). The resulting Kaplan-Meier survival curves within the propensity matched setting displayed significantly better survival in the hydroxychloroquine treated group, with the enhanced survival persisting all the way out to 28 days from admission (Fig. 2).

Also:

 

I found it very interesting that the Azythromycin didn’t work as well in combination with HCQ but it did better by itself than no treatment.  I also found it a little overly deferential in its recognition of the bad papers which others have produced, but those who know me probably aren’t surprised by that.

I want to thank all of these researchers who did their job so well.  Saving lives the right way.

Samia Arshad, Paul Kilgore, Zohra S. Chaudhry, Gordon Jacobsen, Dee Dee Wang, Kylie Huitsing, Indira Brar, George J. Alangaden, Mayur S. Ramesh, John E. McKinnon, William O’Neill, Marcus Zervos, Henry Ford COVID-19 Task Force<ce:author-group id=”aug0010″>, Varidhi Nauriyal, Asif Abdul Hamed, Owais Nadeem, Jennifer Swiderek, Amanda Godfrey, Jeffrey Jennings, Jayna Gardner-Gray, Adam M Ackerman, Jonathan Lezotte, Joseph Ruhala, Raef Fadel, Amit Vahia, Smitha Gudipati, Tommy Parraga, Anita Shallal, Gina Maki, Zain Tariq, Geehan Suleyman, Nicholas Yared, Erica Herc, Johnathan Williams, Odaliz Abreu Lanfranco, Pallavi Bhargava, Katherine Reyes, Anne Chen

Well done!

Posted in Uncategorized | 10 Comments »

They REALLY Want It.

Posted by Jeff Id on July 1, 2020

New study on Antarctica makes all kinds of claims of global doom.  The newspapers are all out there saying the Antarctic is melting.  It feels like Steig 2.0.  It’s also in Nature — yet again.

From WUWT

 

So Amundsen Scott was dead flat back in 2009- which is what triggered the Antarctic blog wars.  Looking at the data it’s quite a jump in recent years.  —  My first thought was that it looks a lot like hockey stick blended data.  The abstract reads like a political add for global doom.

Over the last three decades, the South Pole has experienced a record-high statistically significant warming of 0.61 ± 0.34 °C per decade, more than three times the global average. Here, we use an ensemble of climate model experiments to show this recent warming lies within the upper bounds of the simulated range of natural variability. The warming resulted from a strong cyclonic anomaly in the Weddell Sea caused by increasing sea surface temperatures in the western tropical Pacific. This circulation, coupled with a positive polarity of the Southern Annular Mode, advected warm and moist air from the South Atlantic into the Antarctic interior. These results underscore the intimate linkage of interior Antarctic climate to tropical variability. Further, this study shows that atmospheric internal variability can induce extreme regional climate change over the Antarctic interior, which has masked any anthropogenic warming signal there during the twenty-first century.

We know the first sentence is a flat out lie. Trends have been stubbornly flat and they DON’T fit model predictions.   This is a huge bone of contention because without the Antarctic warming, the climate models are junk.  So I went straight to the temperature data.   My climate software is pretty old and working with it is a bit clunky so I went to RIMFROST, which posts raw temperature data from different stations.  In the actual thermometer data, there is a lack of significant upturn even to 2019 and is visually inconsistent with the new fake-doom article.  The south pole will not be melting soon folks – cause it is very very cold.   If someone has access to this wonderful article, I would love to read the magic even though I will likely be dumber for it.  I’m guessing special filtering makes the 2018 data point shoot right up even over 2013 like that.  Looking at the other end of the series 1957 exhibits the same departure from reality. We have seen that same mathmagic before, whereas in the thermometer data 2018 is below 2013. Without seeing the paper it’s only guessing on my part but the end point jumping that differently is a huge clue.   Magnitudes through the rest of the series are very similar.

Looking closely, they amazingly found a nearly 1C jump in 2018 compared to the 0.5C per the actual thermometer.  Of course that is the strongest point on a linear least squares trend.  Due to the oddness of the differences and past experience with alarmists, I would further ‘guess’ that the whole trend loses statistical significance when things are properly adjusted.

 

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Hydroxychlorquine Azythromycin Still Showing Success

Posted by Jeff Id on May 8, 2020

New study on Coronavirus patients describing outcomes and risk factors.  This is a very positive study despite the subdued language.  My understanding is that this is part of standard recommended treatment in South Korea now.

Posted in Uncategorized | 4 Comments »

Uncommon Cold Doesn’t Break the Rules

Posted by Jeff Id on May 4, 2020

I’ve done a bit of work on COVID vs latitude.   The results are interesting to me, colds are caused by the same family of virus as COVID 19. I have been very curious if, like the common cold, this coronavirus would be impacted by climate.

From Johns Hopkins university, they provide a map of COVID deaths across the united states.    The cities stand out but it is impossible to say that the North or South did worse.  In the ShenZhen area of China, the people are very densely packed, yet the virus didn’t impact them as severely as New York.  I’ve seen their hospital system personally and I can promise you that, that is NOT what solved it.  But the city is just at the Tropic of Cancer and is generally warm and humid.  Not a great place to catch a cold.

My theory was that if I were to only look at counties with enough population density and sum by latitude, I might see a pattern to Deaths from COVID.  What I found was rather striking.  Considering that Michigan had some of the strictest lockdown rules and suffered terrible stats compared to Texas or Florida,  I have been wondering why.   In the map below, you can see Iowan cities didn’t do well, neither did Minneapolis.  Quite a few counties carry so little population that they would have effective quarrantine so I needed to remove them from the stats.  I downloaded census data and sq mile data put it all together over about 9 hours of work. I used deaths instead of cases because cases are dependent on testing availability and I would expect that to add more noise to the data.  All that said, I think I will let the graphs do the rest of the talking.

 

That was a little surprising to me.  Such a strong grouping at the same latitude as southern New York to Just north of Michigans lower peninsula.  Just to confirm what I was seeing, I ran the population density per latitude below.

I’m thinking that this must be caused by behavior.  I know that we stay in during the cold months and head into the sunlight when it is warm.   It’s not warm in Michigan and New York until right about now.   This could be good news in the coming days.

I did run a bunch of curve fits on the data and found the 95% CI outside of the zero range.  Also did some multivariate regression and found that Deaths were explained by latitude, population and population density outside of the CI again.

Posted in Uncategorized | 7 Comments »

Michigan Lock-down Data

Posted by Jeff Id on May 4, 2020

In Michigan we’ve suffered some of the most stringent lock-down requirements of any state.   We have never quarantined healthy people in history as there is no medical data to support that. We’ve been blocked from buying garden implements, visiting empty vacation homes, not allowed to use motorboats but allowed to use kayaks?  Lots of stupid draconian nonsense because our governor is running for VP.  I would propose that it may be worse to hide indoors than to quarantine the sick and continue on with life.  Our quarantine started 3/21 and you can see the trends below.

In addition, I’ve spent a lot of time collecting information on COVID this weekend and found some interesting trends.  My work is incomplete so it will have to wait a little longer to fully present, however the stats below stood out well enough to present.

We have achieved the following records across 50 states:

#1 in deaths per case diagnosed
#2 in deaths per population density
#3 in deaths overall
#7 in cases per population

I think this indicates that grouping people together while sending one out every once in a while for food didn’t work very well.

Posted in Uncategorized | 15 Comments »

COVID Stats

Posted by Jeff Id on April 18, 2020

Finally, we are getting some good statistics.   A very interesting study of total COVID infection rate has made its rounds through the news.   The methods appear reasonable and the conclusions are interesting in that infections in that county are 50 to 85 times more cases of infection than our reported.

COVID – 19 Antibody Seroprevalence in Santa Clara County, California

This data leads the authors to the conclusion that the virus is much less deadly than we’ve been led to believe.

A hundred deaths out of 48,000 – 81,000 infections corresponds to an infection fatality rate of 0.12 – 0.2%.

What’s very nice about this paper is that it is statistically simplistic making it easy for most to understand.

At StatNews site, an article I read some time ago reported similar results based on DiamondPrincess data.
Projecting the Diamond Princess mortality rate onto the age structure of the U.S. population, the death rate among people infected with Covid-19 would be 0.125%. But since this estimate is based on extremely thin data — there were just seven deaths among the 700 infected passengers and crew — the real death rate could stretch from five times lower (0.025%) to five times higher (0.625%).
For perspective, the common flu which is much better studied than a new virus has a mortality rate of about 0.08%.   Still, if we assume the us statistics were even 50 times more infections, somewhere around 3 million people are walking around with the virus antibodies already completely unaware of their problem, and we would have approximately a 0.1% death rate for those who have been exposed to the virus.  Several more of these studies will be out soon, the data should be very interesting.

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Strong Data Again

Posted by Jeff Id on March 30, 2020

I’m not sure why so many of one political party want to say that hydroxychloroquine azythromycin is only anecdotally effective.   Maybe they don’t know what that word means.

Anyway, here is another strong study but the only control subjects are the rest of the entire planet so maybe that’s not enough.

 

 

Very, very angry at our mindless fascist authoritarian Michigan governor for banning the use of these drugs.  We deserve the right to try.

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Cured!

Posted by Jeff Id on March 19, 2020

Folks are reporting a 100% cure rate for the COVID-19.   FDA just released for public use due to administration pressure.

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Zero Risk Options for Treating Coronavirus Patients

Posted by Jeff Id on March 19, 2020

So there appears to be an extremely effective cure for the covid 19. It was discovered during the SARS days.  It turns out that SARS was first released in the Wubai provence and in the city of Wuhan China.  SARS was also a corona virus family member, like the flu and cold.

Anthony Watts, already a hero of mine,  has a post at WUWT, which has started to be recognized.  I’ve been emailing and contacting anyone in media I know of for two days, so have others I know.   Breitbart picked up the story today on this link  

They have it set to a low priority at the moment but it is literally the biggest story on this third rock from the sun.  The ‘cure’ is actually much stronger than any antibiotic that I’ve seen.  The Chinese National Health Commission is recommending it as a treatment in COVID cases with pneumonia.

Interestingly, the drug is a prophylactic as well.  Taken prior to infection, it causes increased resistance to the drug virus. This has only been tested in cellular cultures, not humans.   The data seems fairly extreme though — you literally could take the proper dosage and run around sharing suckers with COVID 19 folks and not catch the virus.

Anthony’s post is here.

One study is in Spanish and translated on his blog.

A second Stanford University study is linked here.

Same conclusions, same results.

Third study is here. From Nature journal.

Breitbart briefly had Anthony Watts work at the top of its stories but within minutes, dropped it to the bottom of the political section so nobody saw it.

An additional study came out in bioscience trends regarding Chloroquine phosphate – same kind of results but on people.

 Thus far, results from more than 100 patients have demonstrated that chloroquine phosphate is superior to the control treatment in inhibiting the exacerbation of pneumonia, improving lung imaging findings, promoting a virus negative conversion, and shortening the disease course

A fifth study focused on hydroxychloroquine here.

All of these studies have the same results.  None of them have any large adverse concerns because the drugs are already approved.  More importantly, there were no non-correlating results.   Very, very powerful evidence.

Austrailians have also given the HIV anti-viral form of the drugs to people with amazing success and are bringing it out to 50 hospitals right now.  They are looking at both the quinine series of meds and the HIV medication lopinavir/ritonavir.

‘Patients would end up with no viable coronavirus in their system at all after the end of the therapy.’

Although the treatment had been effective in a smattering of cases, there hasn’t been any controlled testing like what would be needed to test a new drug, Professor Paterson said.

‘That first wave of Chinese patients we had (in Australia), they all did very, very well when they were treated with the HIV drug,’ Professor Paterson said.

 

Also, the death rate of this virus is going to be much lower than predicted.  It really hits people who are of ‘compromised health’ very hard but on the cruise ship Diamond Princess, where large numbers of folks were infected, under 1 percent of the infected patients died. Basically, if you are healthy enough to get on a cruise ship, you are likely to survive the virus.

In Itally, they are reporting some other causes for death.   It turns out that they are intentionally not treating the older patients due to lack of resources”

If someone between 80 and 95 has serious breathing difficulties, you probably don’t proceed,” admitted an anesthetist at a hospital in Bergamo

 

I do love government run medicine.

From OMRF:

 

Even though the CDC knows these drugs are safe to administer, people right now are having extreme breathing difficulties due to the virus and many will die.   The CDC is recommending against the near zero risk opportunity to wait until additional testing is complete. 

There may be no vaccine yet for the rapidly spreading COVID-19 virus. But scientists are now testing both existing and experimental therapies to see if any are effective in treating the new coronavirus.

Among the drugs being tested are new and existing antiviral therapies. And one candidate that’s showing promise is a drug that’s been in use for more than a half-century

The drug, chloroquine phosphate, was originally developed to fight malaria.

“It’s also been shown to be very effective in treating patients who have autoimmune diseases like lupus,” said Judith James, M.D., Ph.D., Vice President of Clinical Affairs at OMRF. “We use it to treat hundreds of lupus patients at OMRF.”

In China, researchers tested the drug in a multicenter clinical trial to treat pneumonia associated with COVID-19. Preliminary results indicate that the drug appears to show some efficacy as a therapy.

Scientifically, said OMRF’s James, it would make sense that an anti-malarial drug might also fight an infection caused by a coronavirus.

“When malaria gets inside a cell, if you change the pH with a drug like chloroquine phosphate, the malaria can’t live,” said James, an immunologist and rheumatologist. “The same goes for a virus like COVID-19. If you change the pH, the virus cannot assemble, and if it can’t assemble, it can’t infect you.”

James explained that repurposing existing medications is often the fastest path to treating those infected by the virus in a novel way.

“That would be really exciting, because it’s a drug that already has FDA approval, and it is readily available,” she said.  “If it works, it might treat COVID-19 almost instantly.”

Wider studies are now underway to confirm the results.

In the meantime, James and health officials at the CDC are warning against using unapproved medications claiming to treat or prevent COVID-19.

This is where I would like to see the government make progress.  This is something real that can impact not only the physical outcome for many patients, but the overall mood in the country toward the economy and the future.   The one thing the government can actually do and they aren’t reporting it or properly considering it.

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Nuke em!

Posted by Jeff Id on January 13, 2020

So have you ever wondered what climate “skeptic” blogs would sound like if global warming were strong? If it were, I can tell you this blog would say it loud and clear. The data is the data of course but when you don’t have strong warming, and you cannot find any impacts from the small warming, what are you supposed to write?

You can write about the charlatans, the scammers, and fake news. You can write about electricity, LED’s and oil. So many things that beat around the fact that the subject is busted because……..

there is too little warming.

It’s just not as fun.

So – I reject your reality and substitute my own!! — love that quote.

[surreal]
As you know, we have seen massive increases in CO2 levels in the atmosphere. Sea level increases are accelerating and there is nothing we can do to stop it for the next several decades. Adaptation is in the works but one wonders, what will happen when the next big hurricane hits. It’s not like sea level rise is a linear process without stochastic weather noise prepared to wreck the next city.

China has refused to admit their addiction to CO2, clean coal is the same as dirty coal in this instance, why can’t they build nuclear plants. It isn’t like the greens are stopping them after all. The US has shut down more coal plants than any other country has ever owned outside of China [could be true actually]. Why do we carry the burden of the battle. Brownouts are not our future, we need nuclear power now!!

The UN keeps pushing socialism, but what does socialism have to do with the solution? We all agree that the global warming shitstorm needs to be corrected. We don’t agree that we need a supreme overlord to get it done. Free the energy producers to use their own choices to avoid CO2 producing power. Let them build the future of energy. Stop blocking smart people from safe nuclear power solutions!! E = MC^2 has meaning folks!!!! We need nukes now!!
[/surreal]

ouch. That’s what would happen here if global warming doom were real.

BTW, we will go big time nuclear at some point.
No question about it.
Because physics.

This one isn’t up to us. E = MC^2 – All we control is when and how we do it.

Should be cool when it happens though. Available energy has transformed productivity of society in ways we would never have guessed. Increase that availability with nuclear power, and we will need to duck as to what humanity does next. It isn’t often that people give low cost energy the credit it is due. Economic productivity is so closely tied to energy over the last millennia, it is impossible to ignore.

So I’m still hoping to see a Mars landing and a conversion to nuclear energy in my lifetime. Both seem like long shots, but we shall see.

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