Temperature Scale Distortion in Hockey Sticks
Posted by Jeff Id on September 24, 2008
Just a short post today. I am tired from working on this for so long. I have been analysing and trying different things so I get a good feel for how the historical data in from what I know, every hockey stick temperature graph ever produced is actually on a different scale from the “CALIBRATION PERIOD”.
The Calibration period is the secton of every hockey stick which shoots upward. This is becasue measured temperatures have risen for the last 100 years or so.
Scientists compare the shape of temperature curves to temperature proxies which are things like tree ring width graphs, mollusk shell isotopes and other obscure objects to try and determine historic temperature. If the shape of these proxies matches measured temp they consider the proxy good.
In comparing shape one thing scientists do is find the absolute best fit, magnifying and offsetting the data to give the best possible correlation. This is where they go wrong.
For more history read my links
If you are new to building hockey sticks read
If you already know paleoclimatology but are unfamilliar with this reconstruction read:
Ok, the same process as before – I used random Red noise (the integral of white noise or noise with a trend)
I applied a fake temperature signal to the noise.
My fake temperature has the same 1 degree in recent times (2000) as it does in history (1000 AD)
I then went to look for the temperature using analogous methods to hockey stick papers.
Assume – linear temp rise from 1900 – 2000 of -0.2 to 0.6C
step 1 – correlate high r value data >0.8
step 2 – remove any negative slopes
step 3 – magnify individual data series to match my temperature trend
step 4 – average data
This produced the following graph. I looked for data with a high correlation to my intended temperature. I scaled the data to match the 0 – 1 C rise between 1900 and 2000. I found the signal which I had inserted in the data by adding the above graph to the data. But its shape changed.
We noted the hump in history is diminished compared to recent times.
I made the data so we know the peak at 1250 was really 1C and the value at 1300 AD was 0. What happened to temperature.
It is as I have said, the scale of temperature in the past is distorted by sorting for preferential data.
Today I have extended the graphs to show what actually happened to the temperature by sorting the data according to these methods.
The dark blue line is the temperature curve from the second graph up from here. The rest of the lines are actual temperature as should be measured on the graph. The top line represents actual 1 degree C, the yellow line represents a -1 degree C. The entire graph is not on the normal Y axis scale except for in the 1900 to 2000 calibration range. Temperature was compressed in this graph by 0.48 times original scale simply by looking for a trend in recent times!!!!!
There is something else which I can show that demonstrates how prevalent this false temperature shape is in paleoclimatology. In the graph above section A is rising behind the 1900-2000 correlation period. This feauture is prevalent in every fake reconstruction I have done. Now paleoclimatology data is much noisier but if I am right and we look close, you should see the same distortion as I have at A in the graph above.
Look at the top picture In this graph the red line is the calibration range but beneath it (a lot cooler) and barely visible is the actual proxy data. From right to left note the steep drop in the top graph followed by a gradual rise. The next graph is from climate audit. Again you see the drop from the right end to left followed by a gradual rise.
Again this graph is thanks to climate audit. The recent temperatures show a drop followed by a gradual rise into history.
These graphs have clearly been according to the same mathematical properties I have worked to show you. From messing around with the data. Temperature in these graphs is on a distorted scale. I have determined a method for calculation of the magnitude of the distortion but I am still working on the offset.