the Air Vent

Because the world needs another opinion

Archive for September, 2008

Global Warming Takes a Shot in the Globes

Posted by Jeff Id on September 12, 2008

After a decade of wrecking Michael Mann’s preeminent papers which defined the hockey stick, Steve McIntyre and Ross McKitrick got a bit of help this week. After his first hockey stick paper was made famous, McIntyre and McKitrick diligently worked for years to discredit what was obviously a scientifically invalid paper. The hockey stick was made famous first by the UN IPCC and then more so by Al Gore. … with unintentional support from Wayne Gretsky and Steve Yzerman.

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Ten Things Everyone Should Know About the Global Warming Hockey Stick

Posted by Jeff Id on September 11, 2008

Most of us have seen a ‘hockey stick’ graph like the one below indicating temperature. It and others like it have been repeatedly used to demonstrate the recent warming of the earth. But how was it created? Certainly there were no thermometers being recorded in 1000 AD.

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Hemispherical Mann Data

Posted by Jeff Id on September 10, 2008

Filter val 60 year SD normalized 1400-1850.  I increased the filter to show the trend better and changed the SD calibration/normalization range because Linsley et al. 1994 only had 2 datapoints in the calibration range.

The legend indicates the hemisphere data was collected from.

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Global Warming Proxies – Europe vs America

Posted by Jeff Id on September 10, 2008

LeeW asked me to plot European vs US data according to the following coordinates.

This could be kind of fun…

How about 20DN to 50DN and 70DW to 120DW (pretty much N. America)

and also 35DN to 65DN and 8DW to 50DE (Europe)

Not knowing what to expect, I set the software flags and generated this graph.

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Hockey Stick Sorting Rejected High Frequency Data

Posted by Jeff Id on September 9, 2008

Something else I saw.  Look at the 3 graphs of the cherry pick the Mann analysis did.

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Mann’s Statistical Amplification of Local Data

Posted by Jeff Id on September 8, 2008

Ok, now I am getting closer.  After scaling the data in SD units from 1400-1800 and averaging both the 484 series from the accepted Mann paper data and 1209 series from the total set I got this plot.

We can see that the data in the calibration period is clearly amplified, pressing slightly lower at 1850 and substantially higher in 2000 as compared to the average.  I found it interesting that this also magnified the 200-750 year data as well, since there is not as much data here the individual series can make a big difference.  This next graph plots the difference between accepted and total data and rejected and total data.

For those who don’t (and don’t want to ) live in paleoclimatology  (ancient temperature reconstruction), there have been temperature measurements for 140 years.  The data below was sorted out from a huge pile of scrambled noise to produce……..the hockey stick.   In order to make the stick the author Michael Mann needed to do some statistical wizardry.   The most important part of the graphs below

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Another Reasonable Denier

Posted by Jeff Id on September 8, 2008

There seem to be alot of these guys.  Scientists who are not screaming catastrophe from the highest tower.  Heres the link

Global Warming’s Kaput; 2008 Coolest in 5 Years

The scientist says the same things I am trying to tell my  readers.

Predictions of a gradual increase in temperatures called global warming are erroneous, Velasco Herrera told a conference at the Centre for Applied Sciences and Technological Development regarding predictions of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), according to Mexico’s melenio.Com.

The IPCC models and forecasts are wrong because they are based only on “mathematical models and presented results at scenarios that do not include, for example, solar activity,” he said.

The phenomenon of climate change should include other kinds of factors, both internal, such as volcanoes and the very human activity, and external, such as solar activity, he said.

When one guy is screaming at you to change your ways and another guy is calmly showing the problems in his logic, who would you believe?

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Mann Data Smoothed and Averaged

Posted by Jeff Id on September 8, 2008

I didn’t finish fitting curves to the data, I spent Sunday with my 2 year old.  Still I took the time to filter all the mann data by decade, and calculate it in SD units based on 1400-1800 year and posted it here.

A few things to note, since all of my viewers don’t come from forums like or WattsupWithThat, There is a significant warming from 200 to 700 AD in the raw data, much greater than recent warming.  I still don’t believe this is actually temperature we are looking at but if it is, the sorting removed a large portion of the old high temperature signal in favor of the new.

It is what we should expect from  the statistical methods used.  I have dug up an old least squares algorithm I wrote over 12 years ago and am beginning to have some fun fitting curves to this.

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No Meat For You – There are nuts on top of the UN IPCC granola bar.

Posted by Jeff Id on September 8, 2008

This is the head of the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the premier powerhouse in deciding global warming policy around the world.  I wonder if the next Kyoto proposal will be anti-cow.

This is from the Chairperson of the IPCC. Does anyone else think they might be going a tad to far? This is theclearly most attractive opportunity”, he said?

People should have one meat-free day a week if they want to make a personal and effective sacrifice that would help tackle climate change, the world’s leading authority on global warming has told The Observer

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Global Warming – Cookin’ the Books

Posted by Jeff Id on September 7, 2008

This paper is about how the hockey stick temperature graph was invented through bad science and continues to get worse.

I started this blog because I wanted to use my science background to  add my two cents about things which were bothering me in the news.  I couldn’t take it all out on my family after all.  At first my posts were intended to demonstrate how the anthropogenic global warming guys were hyping the data and I quickly found at its roots of a massive network of government organizations who’s survival and continued power depend on man made global warming to survive.  As I got deeper I found that it is actually more than a hundred billion dollar industry now and expanding rapidly.

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Luterbacher’s Contribution

Posted by Jeff Id on September 6, 2008

I am sitting around playing with the data, now that I can see it.  This is the Luterbacher data (which passed) any of the three magic sorting tests, scaled according to the standard deviation from 1400 to 1800.  I haven’t worked through the data enough to understand everything but one thing is for sure, Luterbacher contributes significantly to the overall peak in recent times.  The next thing I am going to work on is verification and then I might do some curve fitting.  The green curve represents a 9 year square filter.

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A Summation of the Mann Data on Global Warming

Posted by Jeff Id on September 6, 2008

I have been working hard on importing and plotting the Mann data.  This represents the first attempt.  I weighted the graph in SD units from a SD calc on 1400-1800, the data was not filtered intentionally as I wanted to see the actual this time.

I think there are some very interesting features like the spike at about 580 AD but I need some more experienced individuals to check the graph.  Also, any help in separating proxy from measured data as well as bad proxies for removal would be appreciated.

If we can trust the proxies I think this graph shows the magnitude of the temperature change from past to present more reasonably than the Mann paper.  In order to complete this though I need to remove any directly measured data (which ones are they) and data which is known to have problems.  After that I want to do smoothed and raw plots and correlations.  It should be interesting.

This is very preliminary data, i haven’t had time to confirm every calculation but I think it is good.

This seems to me to be a more reasonable way to view long term trends.  After the few incorrect (contaminated) records are removed we should be able to make some conclusions from this.  Also, I need some help getting the regional temerature curves imported if someone can, I would like to reproduce the Mann calcs as well.

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Solar Forcing – Can the Sun Heat the Earth?

Posted by Jeff Id on September 6, 2008

An interesting article which makes the controversial point that the Sun actually might heat the Earth. It sounds crazy to me. The link is HERE.

This is an interesting graph that anyone interested in climate change should know. Most scientists don’t believe that solar variance causes all of the change we see, yet most also will tell you that this is some of it. In reality nobody really knows.

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P Value Correlation, Who wants a backward hockeystick anyway?

Posted by Jeff Id on September 5, 2008

I found the following paragraph from the latest Mann paper interesting.

Reconstructions were performed based on both the ‘‘full’’ proxy
data network and on a ‘‘screened’’ network (Table S1) consisting of
only those proxies that pass a screening process for a local surfacetemperature
signal. The screening process requires a statistically
significant (P  0.10) correlation with local instrumental surfacetemperature
data during the calibration interval. Where the sign of
the correlation could a priori be specified (positive for tree-ring
data, ice-core oxygen isotopes, lake sediments, and historical documents,
and negative for coral oxygen-isotope records), a one-sided
significance criterion was used. Otherwise, a two-sided significance
criterion was used. Further details of the screening procedure are
provided in SI Text.

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How to Make a Hockey Stick – Paleoclimatology (What they don’t want you to know)

Posted by Jeff Id on September 4, 2008

I just learned something today which has left a sick feeling in my stomach.  I learned how the latest Mann et al hockey stick graph was created.  So you don’t have to read the paper HERE, I’m going to summarize the result.

This time Mann avoided all the tree ring reconstructions from the old hockey stick because of a problem with what is termed Divergence.  Divergence means the data don’t correlate well in recent times (last 130 years).  Scientists know that a high percentage of trees “temperature” data don’t fit well when compared to the warming trend of earth – measured data.   To sort the data, they correlate the data, which is very noisy and doesn’t look like a temperature measurement at all by measuring its statistical significance to the 130 year measured temperature record.  Data which doesn’t match to a minimal extent with current temperatures is rejected.  The remaining data sets are averaged together (often using very strange techniques) to create a final signal.

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