the Air Vent

Because the world needs another opinion

Hockey Stick Graphs a Series of Epiphanies (Part 2)

Posted by Jeff Id on October 17, 2008

What happened next? As I discussed in part 1, after realizing what was happening I asked Mann or Gavin at Real Climate for an explanation. In my now old post below.

How to Make a Hockey Stick – Paleoclimatology (What they don’t want you to know) It’s cute how green I was back then, in September. My first comment deletion by Real Climate mom would be proud.

I bring up this post because of a comment I made at the bottom

As an addendum, just so people understand, noisier data, more random and less accurate data, will produce a better hockey stick than data with an actual signal with this method. They would almost want bad data to prove global warming was caused by man. We might as well roll dice and run it through the algorithm. I think I might just do that to prove the point!

At this point I was thinking, my god this is a big job. Why would you do that? It’s too much work, you have a company to run and a definite life outside of blogging. I really wasn’t sure if I was willing to put in the effort. But I did understand that data with a clear rise in value would make a noisier handle in the HS than random data. This is a very important point to those who are less math oriented. Worse data makes a better case!

Well I began to look at the data even deeper. I made hundreds of graphs of groups of proxies trying to see what was going on. I had learned from CA that there was a set of original data which didn’t have infilling. Infilling of the data is a statistical method for extrapolation. Mann used 55 personally chosen proxies as models for the infilling of the remaining data. Keep in mind that at least 64 proxies were rejected by hand before the graphs were generated. Why were these proxies rejected! A good question which I can’t get answers to because I AM NOT ALLOWED TO ASK QUESTIONS. MY POSTS ARE REJECTED OUT OF HAND!

Well infilling data in the calibration range is a no no I don’t care how you look at it. The fact that any scientist would consider supporting this for more than 1 minute is amazing. But what do I know, after all I’m no paleoclimatology expert.

This next post is a very critical one, it is from last month and it seems like a year ago to me. I studied the method used for infilling and found this little conclusion.

The All Important Blade of the Stick Uses Less Than 5% of the Data

If you haven’t read it, it was a huge revelation to me. Pay attention to the first graph this time, the end of this graph this is a plot of the changed data between the original data and the data used. Proxies which didn’t change had no effect on this graph. The last 40 years had a hockey stick pasted on. There were 1083 of 1209 proxies which were modified this way!!!!!!!

At the bottom of the post I plotted a bunch of proxies themselves with the in filled faked portion in a different color.

This is when it hit me, how hard would it be to choose by hand 55 series with the best upslope. It doesn’t sound to hard if that is your full time job.

I would love to know the reasoning behind choosing these 55 proxies while rejecting the other 64. After seeing infilled fake data and a sorting method which clearly induced a bias in the temperature scale, I got a bit peeved and wrote this post.

Online Experiment With the Latest Hockey Stick

By far my most popular work. Over 5000 views alone which is really good for a blog as young as mine was.

I won my bet with myself and still haven’t taken the time to read the names of the Mann 08 group! I would love someone to explain the rational for the elimination of the 64 series.

To be continued shortly.

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