Here Comes the Snow
Posted by Jeff Id on December 21, 2008
Yeah, you can tell from the title I live on the topside of the world. A bit egocentric for sure but the winter is setting in here and it’s looking cold. Anthony Watts did a post on PDO (Pacific Decadal Oscillation) which has recently shifted colder. A lesser known form of la nina the PDO is yet another regular oscillation in the weather system. One which doesn’t get the press it deserves simply due to its longer timescale.
Click on the picture to link to watts up.
The blue wedge region surrounded by the green is apparently the typical signature of the PDO cold cycle. What didn’t get enough attention IMO is the trend. By the trend we should have been expecting this event for some time. Fortunately for us, digital diatribes (link on right) kept up with the trend and laid it out several days before the main stream media and Watts Up picked it up. Take a close look at this graph.
The dates are hard to read but there are clear cycles involved here. Many statisticians hate smoothing but in the case of viewing data smoothing is an important tool.
I don’t know the filter type Joe at Digital Diatribes used but it doesn’t really matter. The trend is pretty clear for certain. We are heading into a low pacific temperature cycle.
Bob Tisdale pointed out on his post at Watts up an interesting link which shows what is happening beneath the ocean surface, at the equator.
If you click on the graph it will lead to an animation of the cold water pushing upward to the surface. What impresses me is the comparison of the timesales of the second graph to the GISS temp curve.
You can see the curve peaks up in the 1940 timeframe, dropping in 1060 and again in the 1980 timeframe. Those who are familiar with the GISS temp curve know that the magnitude of the curve and the upslope are not entirely reliable due to surface station quality and some very strong correction factors. I just find it interesting that the peaks and valleys align visually so well. I bet those of us in the north are gonna have a darn cold winter.
No sunspots, cold pacific and dropping temps.