the Air Vent

Because the world needs another opinion

Stupid is as Stupid Does – Geek Fight!

Posted by Jeff Id on January 1, 2009

I always wondered what it would be like to wake up and find out I’m stupid. Apparently the situation is worse than I had imagined. It turns out that not only am I incorrect, I don’t have the ability to learn. It’s really a shame, my mom will be very dissapointed.

I have to thank tamino again for pointing this out to me. I was ready to leave the guy alone for a bit to revel in his green revolution. Now that I know of my stupidity it will help me plan the rest of my life after all it would be a shame to think that I was capable of learning when it wasn’t the case.

Look what might have happened, I could decide to work for myself or make up my own mind, I might even go against the consensus of science, if there was one. Thankfully that will no longer be a problem, I have seen the light. The bright light of tamino’s mind has shone upon me.

It all started on December 31 of 2008 when I read this on tamino’s latest post.

At this point I was going to show some examples of people claiming to be scientists while actually being really, really stupid (or the worst kind of liar). There are lots, and if you’re dying to see examples you can find plenty on Anthony Watts’ blog.

This was pretty well directed toward the Air Vent. Since I am responsible for successfully pointing out a few errors on his blog he’s been a little grumpy toward me. Apparently that little issue has never quite settled down. If you read here once in a while, you know I enjoy a good argument so naturally I had to reply to his accusations.

It really bugs you that temperature trend for the last decade is flat doesn’t it. I notice also you prefer GISS temp. Your graph doesn’t show it well.

Why do you prefer the lowess filter over a more standard one? Is it because of the unusual effects on the endpoint?

It is good to see you recognize that the trend isn’t linear however.

[Response: There’s zero evidence that the trend for the last decade is any different than it has been for the last 30 years. If you paid attention you’d already know that.

The lowess filter is one of the most sophisticated around. But since you don’t like the result, you insult the method.

It looks like the denialist response to this post is to squirm, and to say ever more stupid things. Hilarious!]

My comment reads kind of broken but there were seveal points tammy picked up on. – I think he might actually read the Air Vent. Doc Tamino has a hard time sorting out the difference between a denialist and a skeptic. The nuance isn’t importatnt as long as we agree with him. Keep in mind when reading my remarks that I have to be constantly vigilant when addressing the tamino or I get cut from the thread. I had to reply.

” There’s zero evidence that the trend for the last decade is any different than it has been for the last 30 years.”

That is an unreasonable statement. Of course the 10 year trend is different. It isn’t outside a reasonable deviation from pre-deterimened uptrend as your other posts showed quite clearly. Claiming there is no difference is your own fanatical denialism not mine.

I’m not sure that a ’sophisticated’ algorithm which fails to show only the latest 10 year trend is that useful in this situation.

While I have been called wrong, I’m not used to being called stupid. Do you feel threatened or something? The NSIDC didn’t feel I am stupid.

https://noconsensus.wordpress.com/2008/12/24/nsidc-issues-corrections-to-webpage/

I guess I never met the arbiter of intelligence before.

[Response: In your previous comment you claimed “trend for the last decade is flat.” There’s zero evidence for that. None. You admit “It isn’t outside a reasonable deviation from pre-deterimened uptrend as your other posts showed quite clearly,” so obviously you know this — but you still make the claim. What adjective describes that?

And you still don’t like the result from the smooth, so you’re still maligning the method.

Stupid is as stupid does.]

So now I’m even stupider. I guess that my comments about the lowess method weren’t well received. The fact that it eliminates the end trend in the GISS temp data is APPARENTLY just coincidental and not worth discussing. Well I’m always in for a good geek fight and was at that point unwilling to accept my stupidness, so I went right back.

What a joke. The recent ten year trend is flat to a least square fit as any honest man would admit. Why does it hurt so much? It’s just data and it doesn’t even change the science debate.

What it does change is the debate about honesty in science. If you can’t even admit that simple fact and qualify it in your own terms how can we trust the rest. I would call it foolish but its actually stubbornness and apparently an odd hubris.

Your arma analysis overestimated noise when plotted next to actual giss data as I pointed out on my blog. It therefore underestimated the significance of the trend as well.

What’s more, the logic of the whole premise was circular, you assumed anything non-linear on a long trend was noise and then found a shorter term trend was nose. How so many didn’t catch that is beyond me.

What you fail to admit is that the ten year trend is well known from multiple metrics, it is flat and it doesn’t care what happened in history.

Bjorn was factually correct!

You have the wrong name on your blog.

[Response: Let’s take your argument to its logical conclusion: The recent 3-day trend is flat to a least square fit.

NOW do you see how stupid you sound? I’m guessing not.]

So now I’m even stupidererer, this has to be some kind of unbreakable world record but I like to strive to be the best. Even if I’m the best at being the stupideststs or whatever.

I didn’t argue with Bjorn!

[Response: But you did cross the stupid threshold. Enjoy the kool-aid.]

There it is the final argument by tamino that won the battle. I’m stupidererererrr therefore I am at least stupid, how could a classy guy like this be wrong. Even if he’s half wrong I’m stupiderer, damn I’m depressed. Hell of a way to start the new year.

Looks like I’ll have to work harder to maybe have a smart open mind like tamino.

————

Ok, all joking aside this guy just made the claim that there is zero evidence for a flat temp trend in the last 10 years while referring to those who claim otherwise as liars. Who’s the liar?

What do I know anyway.


11 Responses to “Stupid is as Stupid Does – Geek Fight!”

  1. Layman Lurker said

    From your post:

    “I always wondered what it would be like to wake up and find out I’m stupid. Apparently the situation is worse than I had imagined. It turns out that not only am I incorrect, I don’t have the ability to learn. It’s really a shame, my mom will be very dissapointed.”

    Alas Jeff, she probably figured that out a long time ago! =)

  2. Phillip Bratby said

    Jeff,

    We must form a stupid club. Fortunately my parents died without realising they had a stupid son. Perhaps stupidity is not something one is born with but comes on with age. When I was young I was considered really bright (friends of my parents called me a bright little button when I was very young). Anyway I managed to get a degree, a PhD and a good career despite the stupidity (or before it came on). But, being stupid now, all one can do is accept that someone like Tamino knows best (I guess he must have some sort of doctorate in phsychology or something to be able to recognise stupidity so definitively) and get on and live with it.

    Happy New Year
    Stupid Phil

  3. kim said

    The shape of the trend for the last ten years is I, lying flat on the ground, unable to rise, paralyzed with mirth.
    ================================================================

  4. Chris H said

    I guess if you can’t make rational arguments with someone, then you call them stupid…

  5. page48 said

    Hi Jeff,

    Fun post.

    I guess I’m stupid, too.

    What floors me is that “deniers” are always equated with “skeptics.”

    It also floors me that someone would argue that a “trend” definitely does not exist when one end point is open. We’ll all have to wait and see.

    Happy New Year to Everyone!

    p48

  6. Demesure said

    I’m convinced you’re NOT stupid Jeff. Maybe naive in thinking you can discuss rationally with die-hard bigots (be it of AGW or any other pagan religions), but certainly not stupid.
    Happy new year.

  7. The Diatribe Guy said

    I felt stupid too… for thinking Tamino would allow my comment to go through last night.

  8. Joseph said

    Jeff, I applaud your courage for wading into the cesspool that tamino has created. Hmm, judging from his first post of 2009, tamino appears to suffer from skeptic derangement syndrome. Best to tread lightly there…

  9. Tim L said

    Jeff Id I must say welcome to the dumb ass club! I have been a member for quit a while. I have proof to how stupid i am and have been for oh 40 years. here is my story.. when in grammar school I was bored on completion of testing (mostly math) well I found a RED pen and after studying her red drueling on my test papers I found I could duplicate these red marks….. well, I went a head and corrected my math work with the red marks of WRONG! minus this and minus that and wrote the 92 and circled it. next test one was 88 and so forth. Well she must have been very confused as to why SHE did not write my grade in her grade book!!! LOL after oh four or so test she left me a note, which gives me a giggle even till today ” If you know the answer is wrong then correct it ”
    This is exactly the teachers we have today teaching tamo and gores hansons so on.
    If I had every correct answer in the first place I would have wrote it down, But she missed the most important point of all. any one can write RED all over ones work making them look bad! But it takes special care to find the right answers for everyone. I still dislike red ink. I think that if she had any brains at all she would have realized that there were very bright/bored students in her classes.
    One more point… LOL …. Any one that is self appointed fool can correct anything and call everyone stupid, dumb, flat earth er, denier, skeptic,
    I like to think I am not skeptic But independent thinker and so should you!
    Maybe I should start a blog for us dumb asses … see you at Anthonys!

  10. FrancisT said

    Actually it pains me to point out that

    ” There’s zero evidence that the trend for the last decade is any different than it has been for the last 30 years.”

    is correct as of the last month or so.

    Look at this graph of GIS and UAH data from 1979 and the trends they show from 1979 and 1999

  11. geek said

    well these are some stupid fellas for sure.

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