the Air Vent

Because the world needs another opinion

Archive for January, 2009

Contest- Most Extreme Predictions of 2009

Posted by Jeff Id on January 20, 2009

What is global warming if not fun? With the global cooling going on and public opinion following the graph with perfect correlation, the experts will be clamoring over each other with ever more extreme predictions to maintain funding for their projects. This led me to decide to have a contest to find the most extreme prediction of 2009.

Click on the page bar above for a link to the quote repository. Make sure to copy your quote with the persons name who made it and a link to the source. At year end, we’ll narrow them down and have a vote.

Entries will be rated on gloom, doom, disaster and of course raw insanity with preferential treatment given to experts, politicians and news media.

Global warming most extreme preditions of 2009 – Contest

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Ice on My Mind

Posted by Jeff Id on January 20, 2009

Put this one under funny stuff.

All political parties have their share of extremists but the leftists always seem to win that census. To express his contempt for Al Gore, global warming and the rediculously cold weather this winter, Craig Compeau carved a 5 ton bust of Gore …out of ice. Link HERE.

al-gore-head
Let’s see how long that lasts, he should have put a green light under Al.

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Lost My Code

Posted by Jeff Id on January 20, 2009

I’m a little grumpy tonight. I was going to do a post on The multipllication factor between sat and ground data using the code I made for homogenization. The code is gone, something went wrong in the save. I can recreate it but there was a lot of time in verification.

#$%#^&

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Satellite Temp. Homoginization Using GISS

Posted by Jeff Id on January 19, 2009

RSS and UAH have differing 30 year trends which lie outside my calculated measurement error for the data. Subtraction of the two measures leaves a step located at about 1992. Since they both use the same dataset, the question becomes. Which series is right?

After reading several papers and some short emails to some smart people, I have come to understand the bulk of the trend difference to this single step point in the data which corresponds to the time when satellite NOAA-12 began adding data into the trend.

Below is a graph of the RSS-UAH data where the step is quite visible. The flatness of the slope on either side fo the step is a good indicator that most of the data is in good agreement between the satellite processing algorithms.

rss-uah-data

The graph below is a plot of the raw data and a filtered difference and the overall trends of the data. You can see the trends are crossed and divergent.

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Gobal Warming Primer by E.M Smith

Posted by Jeff Id on January 18, 2009

A post by E.M. Smith on a Watts Up with That thread. He lays out global warming with a bit of passion for a new guy on the thread, its good Air Vent material so with his permission I put it here.

——

E.M.Smith (13:12:26) :

You, sir, have very sound instincts. Welcome aboard!

Sidebar: I’ve been wondering why there have been no class action lawsuits over the long term promotion of transfat laden margarine for ‘heart health’ when it’s now been shown that transfats are worse than any other and that saturated fats are ‘neutral’ to cholesterol… But the science was settled …

I would summarise ‘the basics’ as:

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Straight Talk on Earth Warming – From the Moon!

Posted by Jeff Id on January 17, 2009

This is an awesome article

U.S. Astronaut Jack Schmitt Joins Global Warming Skeptics

Apollo astronaut and moon walker Jack Schmitt saying it like it is about global warming. Astronauts from the Apollo era to a man seem to have that straight talk message where they say exactly what they think.

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Buy a Fish

Posted by Jeff Id on January 17, 2009

A bit of venting, I have to let the pressure out.

Our illustrious US government houses have been hard at work on the printing presses allegedly trying to come up with a stimulus plan. In my view, these people just got done helping some huge bank CEO’s steal record piles of the peoples money. They encouraged bad loans, quietly warned about the consequences from time to time and accepted millions and millions of campaign contributions from these banks at the same time.

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An Interesting Post by Diatribe Guy

Posted by Jeff Id on January 17, 2009

Joe at the digital diatribes site had a post on solar cycles which demonstrates what I saw in the data. His post looks at trends in the recent cycles, if you take the time to read them I think the results are pretty interesting. Of course his post was ten days before me, I just didn’t read it while on the backside of the planet.

December 2008 Update on Sunspot stats

It’s worth a look just to get a feel for the less usual behavior of the sun as of late.

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Sunspot Lapse Exceeds 95% of Normal

Posted by Jeff Id on January 16, 2009

Well John Christy gave me a lot to think about in satellite temp trends as far as an improved correction over my last post.  Steve McIntyre pitched in some comments as well.  It is going to take a bit to work out the details of that for me but I think I can produce an improved accuracy slope over my last posts.  In the meantime, I downloaded sunspot numbers from the NASA.

Cycles are interesting things.  There are endless cycles in nature, orbits, ocean temp shifts, solar cycles, magnetic cycles the examples are everywhere.  What makes a cycle unusual is also an interesting topic.  Some solar scientists have claimed that our current solar cycle is not unusual by the record.  They are certainly the experts but recently the experts have been forced to update their predictions for the next solar cycle.

Well, I’m no expert on the sun but I do find the data regarding sunspots interesting, particularly in the fact that we are again in at least a short term cooling at the same time sunspots and solar magnetic level have plunged.

Here’s an article from our all understanding US government.

What’s Wrong with the Sun? (Nothing)

And a few beginning lines.

July 11, 2008: Stop the presses! The sun is behaving normally.

So says NASA solar physicist David Hathaway. “There have been some reports lately that Solar Minimum is lasting longer than it should. That’s not true. The ongoing lull in sunspot number is well within historic norms for the solar cycle.”

Cool picture …….

sunspots

See where the tiny little 2009 tick is.  We should be increasing now and well on our way by 2010.  By the way, this is an updated graph from the original predition.

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John Christy Comments on 1992 Correction

Posted by Jeff Id on January 15, 2009

After my last post on the discontinuity in RSS vs UAH HERE, I emailed John Christy regarding my findings and asked if he knew of a reasonable explanation for the discontinuity. You know I was really impressed that he took the time to find a couple of articles on the subject which clarified the step. Dr. Christy has published a paper on this in 2007, the full text is not available yet as far as I know without payment.

Tropospheric temperature change since 1979 from tropical radiosonde and satellite measurements
Published in

JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH, VOL. 112, 2007

——

Satellite and VIZ–Radiosonde Intercomparisons for Diagnosis of
Nonclimatic Influences
JOHN R. CHRISTY
AND
WILLIAM B. NORRIS
Earth System Science Center, University of Alabama in Huntsville, Huntsville, Alabama
(Manuscript received 14 September 2005, in final form 24 March 2006)

The first article is too new to find for free but it addresses exactly the issue in my previous post. Where my last article used only my eyes to identify the discontinuity, their 2007 paper uses statistical anlaysis of the differences between satellite data and radiosonde (weather balloon) data rather than ground measurements for determination of step points. The weather balloon data would be preferable for calibration of the satellites because it is a direct measurement of the LT profile rather than a good approximation. It does have the drawback of being a sparse measurement with less coverage than ground measurement but as in satellite data the corrections required for weather balloon data are substantially reduced they are less subject to human interaction and therefore corrections are more easily quantifiable.

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Give a Kid a Toy

Posted by Jeff Id on January 14, 2009

I’m getting better with R now and am able to perform much more flexible calculations (It’s starting to get fun). After noticing the discontinuity in the satellite data difference graphs from my previous posts I plotted the trend before and after the discontinuity I found the raw data on either side of this discontinuity is in excellent agreement between RSS and UAH. I was interested in making a correction to this discontinuity and didn’t want to just pick one or the other. leading to the following post which uses rescaled GISS ground data to re-trend the area of the discontinuity.

Since the Chinese censorship made it nearly impossible to post, I had a bunch of time to consider a variety of possibilities for this post and really had a lot of time to confirm the math and try different methods. After a lot of consideration, I think the result is fairly substantial in its implications and is one of my better works here.

For those who are really laymen, do not pay attention to the graph offsets, absolute value is not the point of anomaly data. Only the trend is important.

——————————————————–

UAH and RSS Lower Troposphere Temperature Anomaly Trend Homogenization Using GISS Ground Measurement Data.

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RSS, UAH, GISS Comparison

Posted by Jeff Id on January 9, 2009

I’ve been reading papers for the last couple of days on satellite data and corrections.  It’s pretty amazing what’s been done and with my improved skills in climatology they read a hell of a lot faster.  Still it takes quite a bit of time to learn and the conclusions you can draw are incremental.

A lot of my readers have already dug into the papers at the NOAA about sat temp info.  What isn’t easily found in the papers is the simple stuff which has so much meaning.  Today I have a graph and a link, just a simple graph of the different data sources and a link which includes several important papers. The first time I read these papers was  before I started blogging, they make more sense to me now but I got the gist back then.

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More Fun With GISS Temps

Posted by Jeff Id on January 6, 2009

Just another little post to consider the accuracy of our current measurement system. Boris, pointed out how stupid I was for comparing the two measures as they are “not supposed to match” — a valid argument methinks. Well don’t worry Boris, I am oft criticized and I expected it when I made my post with a title like that. Why aren’t the satellites and ground temps. supposed to match? Because of this link graciously provided by Eric Adler: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Satellite_temperature_measurements

Climate models predict that as the surface warms, so should the global troposphere. Globally, the troposphere should warm about 1.2 times more than the surface; in the tropics, the troposphere should warm about 1.5 times more than the surface.

The 1.5 number is in question as John Christy says it should be around 1.3 for the tropics. I used this link because of my basic laziness, I recommend nobody trusts wiki for global warming info but this above statement is easily confirmed through other sources. As an additional confirmation to my previous post, Wiki provided the following at the same link

  • RSS v3.1 finds a trend of +0.157 °C/decade.[3]
  • UAH analysis finds +0.128°C/decade.[4]

But what does 1.2 times tropospheric amplification mean you ask. Well it seems to me that it means that the slopes of the UAH and RSS data should be 1.2 times the ground slope measurement so from my graph below the lower UAH red curves should be steeper than GISS.

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Guess What This Is?

Posted by Jeff Id on January 5, 2009

watts-block

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GISS Temp Slope is Exaggerated

Posted by Jeff Id on January 3, 2009

Well unfortunately my posts are going to slow down a bit for the next week. I have to travel again to the backside of the planet and will have some difficulty logging on as I did before. Don’t worry, I’ll be back.

In the meantime, this is something I have been wondering about for some time. GISS (Goddard Institute of Space Studies) temperature data has a substantial amount of corrections built into it. The corrections are designed to address temperature station bias due to things like this.

If you click on it you can see the original Watts Up With That post.

temp-station

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