New York Times Wishful Thinking
Posted by Jeff Id on March 9, 2009
The NYT is allegedly covering the Heartland conference with a variety of speakers pointing out the numerous problems with global warming hysteria. Of course in one of the very few events of its kind, the NYT spends more than half the article refuting the claims by those presenting. When you get sick of the NYT, Anthony Watts has a nice post on the first day of presentations HERE.
The always balanced NYT article Skeptics Dispute Climate Worries and Each Other
Like always, I get wound up over this stuff. I shouldn’t read the news.
More than 600 self-professed climate skeptics are meeting in a Times Square hotel this week to challenge what has become a broad scientific and political consensus: that without big changes in energy choices, humans will dangerously heat up the planet.
This is the first line in the article. Proclamation of scientific consensus. Well I’m not convinced yet and nearly everyone who reads the Air Vent knows a dozen reasons why there isn’t a scientific consensus as many of them are scientists and engineers themselves. If you’re stopping by for the first time, my readers consist of a wide variety of professionals fully qualified to read an interpret climatology science including engineers, climatologists, biologists, college professors, informed laymen and others. How is it that so many people can’t seem to locate this alleged consensus?
Well at least the times got the part about a broad political consensus right. As laid out by European Union and Czech Republic President Vaclav Klaus and summarized by professor Bob Carter at WUWT.
The President commenced his talk by commenting that little change had occurred in the global warming debate since his talk, 12 months earlier, at the Heartland-1 conference. He likened the situation to his former experience under communist government, where arguing against the dominant viewpoint falls into emptiness. No matter how high the quality of the arguments and evidence that you advance against the dangerous warming idea, nobody listens, and by even advancing skeptical arguments you are dismissed as a naïve and uninformed person.
The reporters of the NYT article then turn around and do exactly what the President was claiming occurs, he attempts to marginalize and segregate skeptics.
But two years after the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change concluded with near certainty that most of the recent warming was a result of human influences, global warming’s skeptics are showing signs of internal rifts and weakening support.
This is like the third paragraph represents nothing to do with reality and is at best is propaganda. Skeptics have always shared common views on these points. Many see problems in different areas and interpret the results differently. Unfortunately for the NYT’s know nothing reporter ANDREW C. REVKIN, this is not a sign of weakness but rather of the healthy debate amongst scientists.
Let’s see what else our brilliant guide to the climate conference has to add.
But large corporations like Exxon Mobil, which in the past financed the Heartland Institute and other groups that challenged the climate consensus, have reduced support. Many such companies no longer dispute that the greenhouse gases produced by burning fossil fuels pose risks.
From 1998 to 2006, Exxon Mobil, for example, contributed more than $600,000 to Heartland, according to annual reports of charitable contributions from the company and company foundations.
I hope people realize that this is the big oil money we always hear about. Six hundred thoushand over a period of 8 years. This is not exactly a huge fund. Andi want’s you to think, , , no he hopes you will believe the skeptics are loosing. Yet the facts are the opposite public opinion of global warming is going in the opposite direction of the hockey stick and the conference doubled in size from last year. With speakers of the level of the President of the EU, shouldn’t the headline read a little different!! What would happen if Obama made a speech at a conference in Europe outlining why their governments should support global warming?
Andi then seeks out the most extreme views he can find at the conference.
But Kert Davies, a climate campaigner for Greenpeace, who is attending the Heartland event, said that the experts giving talks were “a shrinking collection of extremists” and that they were “left talking to themselves.”
Get that greenpeace wacko’s calling skeptical scientists extremists, and that is news!
In a keynote talk Sunday night, Richard S. Lindzen, a professor at M.I.T. and a longtime skeptic of the mainstream consensus that global warming poses a danger, first delivered a biting attack on what he called the “climate alarm movement.”
There is no solid scientific evidence to back up the models used by climate scientists who warn of dire consequences if warming continues, he said. But Dr. Lindzen also criticized widely publicized assertions by other skeptics that variations in the sun were driving temperature changes in recent decades. To attribute short-term variation in temperatures to a single cause, whether human-generated gases or something else, is erroneous, he said.
Speaking of the sun’s slight variability, he said, “Acting as though this is the alternative” to blaming greenhouse gases “is asking for trouble.”
Andi has set the tone of his article to paint the above argument as a weakness. The solar arguments are still under debate as many of us know. Arguing for the variation in irradiance itself as the driver is quite a weak point, somewhat akin to those who believe volcanoes are warming the climate by direct heating. However, the solar winds and their interaction with intersteller winds is still an unknown quantity due to their roles in cloud formation. We the honest humans, just don’t know the answers.
There are notable absences from the conference this year. Russell Seitz, a physicist from Cambridge, Mass., gave a talk at last year’s meeting. But Dr. Seitz, who has lambasted environmental campaigners as distorting climate science, now warns that the skeptics are in danger of doing the same thing.
The most strident advocates on either side of the global warming debate, he said, are “equally oblivious to the data they seek to discount or dramatize.”
Andi goes from the conference then to John Christy, a prominent climate scientist who makes a very reasonable statement which demonstrates the fear of association with the skeptics. Note, he does not state a disagreement with the concept.
John H. Christy, an atmospheric scientist at the University of Alabama who has long publicly questioned projections of dangerous global warming, most recently at a House committee hearing last month, said he had skipped both Heartland conferences to avoid the potential for “guilt by association.”
Apparently Andi went to the conference looking for his pre-concluded idea for an article, catch this next sentence. — He really did write it. This guy went around questioning people about dissent in the skeptics conference and got the answers he wanted from greenpeace!
Many participants said that any division or dissent was minor and that the global recession and a series of years with cooler temperatures would help them in combating changes in energy policy in Washington.
“The only place where this alleged climate catastrophe is happening is in the virtual world of computer models, not in the real world,” said Marc Morano, a speaker at the meeting and a spokesman on environmental issues for Senator James M. Inhofe, Republican of Oklahoma.
Being the effective and balanced reporter Andi apparently is, he finishes with the following from a Dr. Schneider. This is a different Schneider from Tapio Schneider of RegEM or David Schneider of the Antarctic paper.
But several climate scientists who are seeking to curb greenhouse gases strongly criticized the meeting. Stephen H. Schneider, a climatologist at Stanford University and an author of many reports by the intergovernmental climate panel, said, after reviewing the text of presentations for the Heartland meeting, that they were efforts to “bamboozle the innocent.”
And then the people whom hold our best interests at heart, the glorious UN politicians. This bit forced me to make a post because it basically says it all.
Yvo de Boer, head of the United Nations office managing international treaty talks on climate change, said, “I don’t believe that what the skeptics say should provide any excuse to delay further” action against global warming.
But he added: “Skeptics are good. It’s important to give people the confidence that the issue is being called into question.”
Translation: Rational arguments against our conclusions should not delay our funding or our plans for increased funding. Skeptics are good because it makes our funding appear more balanced.


AEGeneral said
I had to stop halfway through. I’m about to lose it.
TCO said
What scares me is the clubbiness of the skeptic/denialist group. Guys like McI don’t bother to eviscerate Watts and Loehle, even when they are right in a topic of interest and when those guys pull real boners. The Heartland get together is sorta similar.
I am very much in favor of revisionism, etc. But I would urge you state college guys not to read too much into all the doings and goings in skeptic land. Bottom line is that there are very few good papers (and don’t give me the peer review excuse…there are not even white papers). It’s either a laziness of synthesis/logic or a desire to do PR without the solid weight of proven differential impact (really both).
I’m just saying…watch out.
Not sure said
“More than 600 self-professed climate skeptics are meeting…Kert Davies, a climate campaigner for Greenpeace, who is attending the Heartland event…” So Davies is a “self-professed climate skeptic”? Does his boss at Greenpeace know this?
The column is factually incorrect. Steve McIntyre has said time and again that if he were a policy maker he would be guided by the conclusions of the IPCC. He’s a presenter at the Heartland conference. How does his acceptance of the IPCC conclusions make him a “self-professed climate skeptic”?
Given that you’re likely to be misrepresented like this, is it any wonder that prominent scientists choose not to attend? Is it any wonder that there’s a “consensus” in climate “science”?
If there’s any consensus, it’s a consensus of fear. Fear that some media scumbag like Andi Revkin is going to smear you like this if you dare to deviate from the one true course even a little bit.
Matt Y. said
Re #2 – thanks for the concern, which is clearly heartfelt. We’ll try not to become mesmerized by any shiny objects. Perhaps the glaring systematic bias in funding is the real cause for the discrepancy in volume of work? If there is one the alarmists are good at, it is organizing. I’m in awe of people like Jeff who not only follow this stuff closely, but contribute in a real way just working in their spare time and for no money. Yet they routinely de-pants the rock stars of the AGW crowd who get the big bucks and fancy journal spreads. Go figure.
TCO said
McI has had 4 years since his 2005 paper and still has no other real papers. He is full time working in the area and has produced no papers. If he were a grad student, he would be cashiered. He’s 60 plus years old so should be able to do stuff better and easier than grad students getting used to not being in the dorm. The whole thing is a joke and an excuse to his wife for the previous penny stock games.
Jeff Id said
What is this penny stock game you keep referring to?
Raven said
TCO,
Steve Mc is *retired*. Climate science is his *hobby*. He has no obligation to produce peer reviewed papers. If the climate science community had any interest in cleaning up the garbage that Steve Mc finds then there would be a long list of working scientists who would want to co-aither papers with Steve Mc. But we don’t see that which says more about the sorry state of the climate science community than Steve Mc.
TCO said
Raven: Of course not. I just don’t want the ignorant to think he has produced more than he has. Also when he whines about not being invited to conferences and has little output, he is being a fool.
TCO said
Jeff:
http://bigcitylib.blogspot.com/2007/08/who-heck-is-steve-mcintyre-portait-of.html
The companies are shell companies, trading on the pink sheets, less than a dollar per share valuation, literal penny stocks. When you look at some of the reports, it is a joke that the even bother incorporating and filing reports and such.
Gary P said
The message is clear from the NYT. The skeptics are wrong and global warming is a dire threat. Cutting down trees to provide newsprint for the NYT is slowing natures attempt to re-capture carbon dioxide. The one thing we can all do to reduce global warming immediately is to stop buying the NYT.
Note to NYT stockholders: Price of NYT stock is $3.90, down from $45 in 2004. Delicious schradenfreude.
You would think that an entire industry that gets most of its money from advertising would understand that you do not want people to feel bad/guilty about buying your product. Keep publishing those stories about global warming and the heroic tree huggers that stop cutting down trees to make fire breaks. Make everybody believe that cutting down a tree is sin. I wonder if they will ever catch on to the fact that they are destroying themselves.
Neil Fisher said
TCO: have you forgotten Harry? Have you forgotten MBH9x? Between them, these two incidents indicate just how much trust one can place in people who have politicised their “science”. In both cases, those who were defending attacks on the *data* and *methods* were *personally* attacked, and in both cases methods and data were obscured until after the media release and subsequent disaster headlines had faded from public memory – they had “moved on” and it “wasn’t relevent”, despite still being cited in contempory articles. The major difference was that Steve Mc was able to learn from the past and see the second one coming to an extent.
TCO said
No I haven’t forgotten them. I can disaggregate. I am not just a chimp throwing feces. Just because the enemy does something wrong does not excuse sophsitry on my side.
TCO said
just read the NYT article. Well done. Polints out the silliness of hanging around with silly billies. The decent ones like Christie write real papers and go to real meetings. not EnE and Heartland. aNd blogging. And playing grabass with Watts.
rephelan said
TCO said
March 10, 2009 at 3:05 am
No I haven’t forgotten them. I can disaggregate. I am not just a chimp throwing feces. Just because the enemy does something wrong does not excuse sophsitry on my side.
Nice reference to Crichton. Frankly, you ARE a chimp throwing feces and if you are interested in a real discussion I’ll give you my real name and address if you’ll give me yours. I’m a third stringer on this site but I can probably hand you your a** on a plate and make you thank me for the delicacy. When you want to discuss science rather than throw around innuendo, feel free to rejoin us.
TCO said
Reph: You can address the points. And if you want a piece of me…hope you have a peice. Idiot.
rephelan said
TCO
Your “point” was a link to an ad-hominem attack on Steve McIntyre. And your response to me was immature.
Dave Stephens said
Name calling is a chump’s game and god bless the chimps anyway – let them throw all the feces they want while the Rephelan-chump devours whatever they toss his way… Brown lips sink no ships at all, do they, Rephelan?
TCO said
My link was an answer to a Jeff’s question. No more, no less. I think the subject had already become ad homish a while ago. Neil coming in like a typical blustering skeptic wanting to debate all of AGW in every thread is the one off topic.
Oh and fuck you Rephalen.
Layman Lurker said
Now, Now TCO you said you weren’t going to curse.
cgh said
Interesting to see that in post 9 TCO is referencing a publically self-confessed liar. It seems his sources have gotten no better over the years. BCL tried to sign the Oregon statement under false pretenses and was caught claiming credentials he did not have. Don’t waste your time debating this turd; TCO has been doing this public insult routine for years.
Russell Seitz said
If you’re wondering why I’m fed up with this sideshow:
http://www.takimag.com/site/article/climate_of_here
dublds said
Wow TCO, you’re really a prominent voice on this issue. You’ve obviously adopted the company line and now have diligently taken up the effort of reading all the newspaper articles that confirm your view, and digging up insignificant facts about prominent skeptics aimed at discrediting them.
So since you’re such a vocal and knowledgeable proponent of this issue, why don’t you just finish the job and go ahead and tell us how the fact that CO2 levels do not correlate to temperature on any timescale, actually proves global warming theory. Sorry to bother you with the real relevant facts amidst your circumstantial character assassinations. But I will say that if you provide us a scientifically sound explanation, we will all immediately become devout believers like you. This is our only sticking point.
So hurry up. We’re all anxious to put this debate to rest. Now is your chance to apply your superior knowledge and insight when it really counts. I’m sure you won’t disappoint us with some deflection or change of subject. Oooh this is so exciting. Finally the answer… hurry up now!
dublds said
cgh,
TCO and Russell’s Taki post are just a few out of millions and millions of posts that opt for ad hominem attacks, and faulty circumstantial logic over facts.
In other words, in the millions and millions and millions of words and paragraphs on the issue, we have yet to hear the explanation for
1) CO2 not correlating to temperature on any timescale
2) lack of the predicted tropospheric warming
3) explanation of the ‘ol standby “natural variability” (read, there is some mechanism “outforcing” their alleged singular climate driver, CO2. Who cares about that right?)
Millions and millions and millions of empty words on the subject every day, when just a few paragraphs addressing these questions, would lay the issue to rest. Curious, don’t you think?
Russell Seitz said
” the fact that CO2 levels do not correlate to temperature on any timescale,”
An eon here, an epoch there- you know, Dubids, after a few Gy , sentient creatures are bound to notice .
last time I looked, the ice age delta was 100 ppm. Not counting the d-13C from sink release.
Miss Priss said
Russell Seitz wrote: > If you’re wondering why I’m fed up with this sideshow:
Not really, no. In fact, not at all. Your prose, furthermore, is absolutely brutal in its prolixity; so that when, at long last, you do finally get around to the point (if I may call it that), one is left feeling curiously cheated. And not in a good way.
Russell Seitz wrote: > [After twenty-five years] Lindzen has failed to persuade fellow MIT climate scientist Kerry Emanuel that global warming is “not a big deal.”
Therefore, what? (And why, incidentally, “the quotation marks”?) After twenty years, Robert Nozick failed to persuade his friend and colleague Amartya Sen (as well as all his other Princeton colleagues) that individual rights are inalienable; therefore, individual rights are not inalienable, yes? No? And after all the decades, Aristotle failed to persuade Plato that existence exists; therefore existence does not exist, no? Yes?
Please, sir, do us all a big favor and drop your year-old links elsewhere, like the roundfile. And remember: if it ceases to be intelligible, it ceases to be art.
cgh said
Dubids, your three points are all entirely valid, and would collectively settle the issue. Russell is wrong, particularly in his linked article when he states, “Absent intellectually serious Republicans, scientific professionals on websites like RealClimate have only Democrats with whom to discuss policy.”
Good luck getting a contrarian post or view on RealClimate. It’s a pure propaganda site. There is no debate there, as it exists purely to reinforce the views of The Team. For Russell to claim that this is so because Republicans are either disengaged or lack scientific credentials is simply wrong. Russell makes the further presumption that those on places like RealClimate are all “scientific professionals”, when this has clearly been demonstrated not to be the case.
His analysis is also far too shallow. This is not about Democrats vs. Republicans. It is about a war of philosophies, our generation’s version of the clash between Hume and Rousseau or Reason vs. Romanticism, and it’s been going on for centuries in various forms. A universal sympton of this debate is any group idolizing the pastoral past and despairing of the modern present. Climate change simply serves as the convenient vehicle to drive their long desired antidevelopment program, outlined in the 1970s in Amory Lovins’ soft energy path.
rob r said
Russell Seitz
You seem to suggest that a 100 ppm lowering of atmospheric CO2 concentration is largely responsible for the last ice age.
Is this something you researched or are you simply parroting the AGW party line?
Beilefeld (1997) (in GeoJournal) examined the change in the average albedo of the globe between the Last Glaciial Maximum and the present day. It was found that the greater albedo (reflectivity) of the earth’s surface at the LGM reduced the earth’s energy budget by 7% to 10% (depending largely on the difficulty of establishing the extent of Himalayan ice).
This difference in the energy budget can be inputted into the Stefan Boltzman equation and when one does so it causes a change in global temperature of 5 degrees celcius (i.e. colder at the LGM). This is precisely the change in global average temperature that everyone seems to attribute to the LGM and this includes people like James Hansen.
The upshot of this is that albedo change is sufficient to cause and maintain a full glaciation. It results primarily from changes in solar radiation at the top of the atmosphere over the continental masses of the Northern Hemisphere, as proposed by Milankovitch.
So the question one then needs to ask is whether there is any significant role for CO2 in causing glacial/interglacial transitions. The jury is still out on this. The evidence is equally suggestive of atmospheric CO2 changing as as a passive response to warming and cooling of the oceans and associated changes in the global carbon cycle. Note that in all instances CO2 concentration changes follow after changes in temperature. They do not lead changes in temperature. No case where CO2 leads has yet been proven in a convincing manner.
So dont be too sure that CO2 can be fingerprinted as the major or even a bit player in causing glacaiations or in causing the termination of glaciations.
Also you should note that Hansen largely ignores surface albedo in his most recent attempts to model the contribution of CO2 to global temperature change.
Neil Fisher said
TCO:
When some one or some group get caught being careless with the truth, then my natural reaction is not to think that everything they say is wrong – rather, it raises my personal level for the *verification* of their claims. That is to say, if I know you’ve lied to me before, then I am less likely to take you at your word than someone who has always been honest with me. But hey, that’s just me…
TCO said
Layman: Good one you. You’re right. I did say I would not curse. Mea culpa. I will (re)stop. If I slide, come bonk me on the head (and I will donate 10 dollars to Navy Marine Corps Relief Society.
TCO said
20 cgh:
A. Not aware of the bcl issue you cite, but thanks for referring to.
B. In general have found BCL a good guy on the “other side” (I am part of you guys though you don’t realize it). He allows me to free play.
C. Just because he had a lapse one place is not a reason to dismiss him on everything…or to ignore factual things he brings up. To do so…would be “thinking with your glands” in the words of the Heinleinophile David Gerrold.
D. Steve McIntyre used a sock puppet to defend himself on Tim Lambert. And then he never admitted to it explicitly…just a passive aggressive North Vietnamese style admission non-admission (very Mannian actually, reminding me of the Ritson red noise behavior.)
E. “Ignoring TCO” is just part of the echo chamber effect of the blogosphere where people of like ilk band together for self gratification.
TCO said
21. Russel: That’s a great article. Sums up how I feel. Most of the troops here don’t realize that I have read every single post on climate audit (going back several months before I joined) and replied to most of them…before putting the site on no TCO comment restriction because of McIntyre dishonesty. I’m ten times the conservative he is. Spud into Anwar. Kill commies and Al Queda. Literally string them up. But a fact is a fact. A point is a point. And McI and most of the hoi polloi don’t play square.
“Lindzen is no stranger to technical controversy, having over the years posed many novel and scientifically interesting objections to the common wisdom in the climate change debate, focusing on how rising amounts of atmospheric water vapor could curb the rate of man made temperature rise. But each of his serial objections has been coherently replied to in the peer-reviewed science literature. Good scientist that he is, Lindzen has accepted as valid many quantitative objections to his theoretical views, and altered his stance accordingly.
That’s how science works..”
Layman Lurker said
TCO, I think you like being bonked on the head. It’s part of your schtick. 8)
TCO said
22. You make the mistake of confounding some disagreement with general view. This is typical of the echo chamber, low-wit skeptics. We luke warmers will napalm your babies.
TCO said
26: I agree that REalClimate is overly restrictive in comment approval and in allowing debate. It is not a salon for debate given that they have confounded the venue with outreach and teaching. And Mann and the ilk tend to be biased.
All that said, I see CA and others adopting some RC habits (voice of God interventions, quashing debate, etc.)
TCO said
26. Oh…and this would blow your mind that I actually agreed on a subpoint (RC) since you can not disaggregate. It is all sides and all or nothing with you types…
TCO said
28. If you feel that way, no point in talking to me…other than rabble rousing for the third parties. You need to rise above this sort of glandular debate and learn to engage. But at your age likely never will. It really is a rare thing to be able to kill your own dog.
TCO said
32. Yes…it gives me sexual pleasure.
cgh said
30 TCO
“C. Just because he had a lapse one place is not a reason to dismiss him on everything…or to ignore factual things he brings up. To do so…would be “thinking with your glands” in the words of the Heinleinophile David Gerrold.”
Please reconcile your principle here with:
“D. Steve McIntyre used a sock puppet to defend himself on Tim Lambert. And then he never admitted to it explicitly…just a passive aggressive North Vietnamese style admission non-admission (very Mannian actually, reminding me of the Ritson red noise behavior.)”
You appear to want to excuse BCL on the grounds that one slip is no reason to dismiss, although I would argue that a serious attempt at misrepresentation is much more than “a lapse”. By the same token, you appear to want to dismiss everything SM says because of one event in the context of Tim Lambert.
This is inconsistent.
TCO said
Ahh…grasshopper.
a. That’s because I don’t live in an either/or linear world. But one of weighted many-variable inputs. One of subtlety and discrimination.
b. I’m showing you the inconsistency of YOUR position. Did you really not get that?
TCO said
IOW, I DON’T dismiss everything SM does because of his one indiscretion. In fact, when he found the Y2K error, I lauded him. Capisce???
TCO said
It’s called disaggregation!
AndyL said
TCO
You have submitted 11 out of the last 13 posts.
Did you ever hear the expression “less is more”
Neil Fisher said
Yet in comment #2, you said:
Well, at least you won’t be talking to yourself, I guess 😉
TCO said
Mea culpa.
TCO said
Neil:
You were the one who expressed the pointlessness. Make a decision one way or the other. Is this just rabble rousing for the base and for third parties (few in number) or are there actual issues and points in play?
cgh said
TCO 39: “That’s because I don’t live in an either/or linear world. But one of weighted many-variable inputs. One of subtlety and discrimination.”
Utter drivel. Thanks for conceding the debate gracefully.
DeWitt Payne said
rob r said
March 11, 2009 at 9:41 pm,
A straw man if I ever saw one. The draw down of atmospheric CO2 referred to started in the Eocene on the order of 50 million years ago, before there were polar ice caps. The 100 ppm change between glacial and interglacial phases in the current era is trivial by comparison. Current temperatures are much lower than the Eocene optimum, even at the height of an interglacial period like now. Even as recently as about 7 Mya, the climate in upper East Tennessee was sub-tropical, as demonstrated by the fossil record from the Gray, TN site.
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