the Air Vent

Because the world needs another opinion

Archive for March, 2009

Archie Bunker’s Take

Posted by Jeff Id on March 24, 2009

And around we go again. H/T to papertiger.

archie

Don’t forget that the same solutions were the answer then.  Less energy, conservation and absolutely no nuclear.

See a pattern?

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Know Your Data

Posted by Jeff Id on March 24, 2009

How does the AVHRR data compare to surface stations. I anomalized the surface station and satellite data and found the closest match to satellite data coordinates. First, I only accepted surface station data which had less than two years missing 276 months of data minus 36 = 240.

dd=array(FALSE,42)
for( i in 1: length(surcoord[,1]))
{
if ( sum(!is.na(surfd[,i])) > 240) {dd[i]=TRUE}
}

dd becomes an array of 42 TRUE/FALSE values with 19 TRUE’s corresponding to series with more than 20 years of data.

AVHRR comes in two series 0200 night values and 1400 day values. The night values have a bit of trouble with cloud masking as cloud detection is apparently more difficult. I created scatter plots of the day and night values separately.

dayscatter

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A Vent About Politics

Posted by Jeff Id on March 22, 2009

I had the opportunity to have several extended conversations with a gentleman originally from East Germany who owns his own very successful business in the US. It’s amazing and interesting to hear the stories of people who have lived under socialist governments. They tell stories of governments simply making the accusation of fraud and destroying peoples lives, threats by police and the intimidation of the tax collectors. I take every opportunity to listen to those who have experienced it.

This gentlemen told how at 11 years old his family fell out of favor with the government when his 15 year old brother escaped. At 11 years old the police took him to a cell where he was tied to a chair with bright lights in his face where they screamed, threatened, promised and intimidated him to try and get the location of his older brother. The interrogation culminated with the dry firing of a handgun against the side of his 11 year old head.

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NSIDC Satellite Data vs Steig Recon

Posted by Jeff Id on March 22, 2009

I’m back from my trade show tonight, exhausted but ready to do some more work. I left off looking at the satellite temperature data in movie format (link here) and am continuing the investigation of the AVHRR by displaying the trends across the continent. The first thing I should say is that the data is noisier than I had expected.

The AVHRR data is collected twice per day 12 hours apart at 0200 and 1400 local time. This means each timezone of the antarctic is scanned at the same time each day in narrow strips. I do a lot of plotting and in some cases I make hundreds or more plots before making a post. Plotting the trends gives a good feel for the noise level and features underlying the data.

Let’s see some of the first examples of trends across the Antarctic. The data for these graphs ends in Dec 0f 2004 so the title probably should include that, however I’m lazy so assume trends are from Jan of the first year to Dec of the second year in the title. These first graphs are an average of the day and night data. I also realized after making these graphs that I left “Recon” in the title. These are NOT recon data but rather AVHRR anomaly data. I’m sorry for the mistake but I’m too tired to fix it tonight.

trends-1982-2004-avg

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Global Government

Posted by Jeff Id on March 21, 2009

How bad can government get? I heard this radio message from Austrailia which sets a new level. Be warned, you aren’t going to like it.

Click the radio or read it below.

radio

Developing countries need climate change support

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Polar Bears Again, The first sign of summer.

Posted by Jeff Id on March 19, 2009

Not much time for global warming hot air lately. Reading the news today, I was heartened at the first signs of summer. Right at the moment of transition for arctic ice growth, the natural cycle of global warming science has again switched from penguins to polar bears. The predictability of the cycle is quite clear in the sea ice graph shown here. sea-ice-3-18-09

If you notice the sea ice extent is currently higher than the last four years.

Global warming leaving its mark on polar bears

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It’s too funny to pass up.

Posted by Jeff Id on March 16, 2009

Here are the headlines under google news global warming.  Apparently global warming disasters are attracted to liberals and money?

global-warming-headlinesDo these people have any idea how transparent  they are?

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Talkin’ Down

Posted by Jeff Id on March 16, 2009

At least someone is saying it.  Obama used his language to intentionally worsen the economy and enact or inflict rather his unprecedented policies on our population.

Obama’s Fearmongering Has Damaged The Economy

The only thing the article leaves alone is the key factor.  The liberal media including the sometimes liberal Fox news went along with it.  They happily reported any bad news they could find about the economy.  You may believe that it was done because reporters report what people say and were not intentionally involved.  But if you do you are wrong and I question your intellectual capacity.  You may believe that the words repeated day after day have no effect on the economy, it’s separate.  In which case refer to my previous statement.

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Evidence of Sea Contamination In Antarctic Sat Data

Posted by Jeff Id on March 16, 2009

Know your data!

It’s the first rule of any engineering project you undertake. Mistakes often happen at the base level of data collection, errors in the early stages propagate through a project once the data is accepted, the effects of which are often misunderstood or unquantified. Nobody is immune to this of course, it’s just a point I want to make. From an engineering standpoint, it means heavy verification, often multiple times until you’re sure that your answer is reasonable. In my world if I’m wrong, things don’t work and big money is flushed down the toilet. In climatology if they are wrong and it is pointed out, there is little recourse or concession of the mistake. It would just be another messed up science if the politicians and polyscienticians weren’t forcing ridiculous policies down our throats, but that’s another story.

Jeff C found a site on the NSIDC where they provide AVHRR satellite data from 1982 to 2004. This data is monthly data which means daily cloud masking and error correction have already occurred. The masking is different than Steig used in his Antarctic paper and it may have had a substantial impact but at least we have a point of reference. There are several questions to answer, are 3 pc’s enough to represent the data, are the trends similar to the presented trends, are there other problems in the data.

Honestly, I’ve spent many hours now looking at the data and while I don’t have the answers to all these questions, there will be some interesting things over the next week or two. I really need to send Christmas cards to the team for all the entertainment they provide.

Jeff C deserves enormous credit for accessing and processing the data, we did work on it together but there were big hours spent in analysis and verification. Anyway, instead of getting too far ahead of myself and into some of the incomplete but still interesting finds I’ve decided to catch my readers up.

Below is a movie of the skin surface temperature of the Antarctic. Watch the video a couple of times and you may see some interesting features.

sat-data-movie

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Steve McIntyre IPCC Presentation

Posted by Jeff Id on March 14, 2009

I’ve taken the time to post Steve McIntyres speech notes for the 2009 IPCC presentation along with the slides. It gives a much more complete view of the devastating presentation about Global Warming alarmism and IMO is a must read. SteveM’s notes for the speech are in Blue, as he says it he seldom uses the wording in the slides.

slide1

Do We Know That The 1990s were the warmest decade of the Millennium?

Stephen McIntyre March 9, 2009

New York 2009 International Conference on Climate Change

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An Interesting Post on Prometheus

Posted by Jeff Id on March 14, 2009

Roger Peilke Jr. has an interesting guest post on his blog, pointed out to me (thanks to) rephelan on my previous post. I’ve often made the point that climate scientists are being used and manipulated by the politicians. Often the obvious monetary rewards for supporting the political solutions to AGW have not just affected the science but have elevated the scientists to status of fame creating a public image for people like Hansen. This public image in turn blends their job description into politicians themselves. These polyscienticians are the most dangerous to humanity because peoples lives are at stake, not so much from global warming but rather from the huge tax burdens governments want to place on the very items which power our economies. These policies are the real tipping points beyond which there is no return. After all, I’ve never been asked to vote for world policy, how can we get rid of one that turns out to be bad?

What was the Copenhagen Climate Change Conference really about?

A Guest Post by
Professor Mike Hulme
School of Environmental Sciences
University of East Anglia

The title of Mike Hulme’s post says a lot his opinions are probably different than my own as I’ve never spoken with or even heard of him that I recall. I read a lot so I may have missed it. The point of his article seems to be that the 2500 climate scientists were thoughtful and honest at the conference, yet were ambushed by the conclusions presented as a synopsis of their work. First, my impression is that these ‘scientists’ likely support much of the conclusions but many do not support all, however just like the rest of us they were never asked their opinions.

Below is a copy of the 6 items released by the universities as a result of the Copenhagen conference. The 6 items are copied from the article titled —- Six ways to save the world: scientists compile list of climate change clinchers. You can see from the title that the organizers of the conference got the perceived consensus they wanted. Here’s the quote from the apparently surprised Mike Hulme describing the conference chair’s description of the six statements.

And the conference chair herself, Professor Katherine Richardson, has described the messages as politically-motivated. All well and good.

This whole thing raises my blood pressure, how is it the conference conclusions are presented with no input.  A small group of university heads who organized the event used it’s notoriety to create the strong implication of consensus from the 2500 attendees. Mike Hulme spends several paragraphs describing debates between the scientists on the very issues claimed to be settled by the 6 final conclusions.

Before I present the 6 items summarized by the copennhagen committee, I do have to take issue with Professor Hulme’s article. First, it doesn’t go far enough to state the obvious. The end of the article describes being ambushed by politicially motivated university organizers. Well next time you go to one of these things, write here and WE’LL TELL YOU WHAT’S GOING TO HAPPEN. Damn near everyone who posts here knew this was going to be the result. I don’t know if he’s pretending ignorance for the sake of the article’s point or is simply that naieve. The scientists are certainly being used but many in turn use the politicians for funding. Either way, the concept that the outcome of Copenhagen was unpredictable is a stretch.

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Copenhagen wears no clothes!

Posted by Jeff Id on March 14, 2009

al-gore-head

UNITED NATIONS – The U.N. chief predicted Thursday that a new global climate deal — with U.S. backing — will be reached this year.

“With U.S. leadership, in partnership with the United Nations, we can and will reach a climate change deal that all nations can embrace,” Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon told reporters.

The complex effort to replace the last climate treaty, the U.N.-brokered 1997 Kyoto Protocol, which expires in 2012, has risen to the top of Ban’s priorities this year.

Buoyed by US, UN chief sees climate deal this year

But Ban, speaking to a monthly news conference at U.N. headquarters, said he was encouraged by new U.S. approaches to global warming after meeting in Washington with President Barack Obama and congressional leaders earlier this week.

“On climate change, we agree. It is an existential threat. We know what we must do,” the secretary-general said. “President Obama and I share a fundamental commitment: 2009 must be the year of climate change. That means reaching a comprehensive agreement in Copenhagen by year’s end.”

Two thousand nine! Complete with increased taxation of the very thing which powers our successes.

His (Obama’s) budget plan calls for using cap-and-trade to raise as much as $646 billion in new revenue for the U.S. government from 2012 to 2019.

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Obama’s hometown, budget shortfall — so raise taxes.

Posted by Jeff Id on March 14, 2009

I have to post on this one. It’s tax season, and despite the fact that my own small company has already paid 20% of our “gross” income to various employment taxes we have been required by the federal government to pay another 10% of gross for profits. This means the government profited 30% of my gross sales and I collected 0.1% which I immediately reinvested into a doughnut.

Now Illinois wants to raise income taxes not by a little but by fifty friggin percent!

Quinn: Income tax rate going up

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We’ve got Sat Data!

Posted by Jeff Id on March 12, 2009

It’s been a little quieter on the Air Vent lately. That’s not because I’m not working on anything it’s actually because I’m working more. Jeff C found an FTP server on the NSIDC site where we can download the satellite data. I spent the last two nights collecting the ‘huge’ datasets and other Jeff has worked out how to convert them into the 50×50 gridded Format.

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More Doom and Gloom from Copenhagen

Posted by Jeff Id on March 11, 2009

I copied this article from the Austrailian.

It’s pretty hard to understand how 30 below antarctic ice is going to melt.  It’s also hard to understand how the increasing ice in the Antarctic will contribute to the situation.  Whatever..

I wonder, why the heartland conference isn’t getting the same coverage

THE global sea level is rising faster than predicted, scientists warned yesterday.

Instead of a rise of between 18 and 59 centimetres by 2100, as forecast in the 2007 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report, seas could rise up to a metre or more.

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