The media advocates in AGW aren’t going to let facts get in the way of the data. They will find any scientist which discusses data that show warming, melting and acidification whether it’s real or not. Today I ran across an article which demonstrates more of the same mentality which is absolutely pervasive in AGW media.
The annual melt-back of Arctic Ocean sea ice is deepening — driven by the arrival of warmer weather and the thinness of the winter ice that rebuilt after last summer’s melt.
As of the latest readings posted at the National Snow and Ice Data Center on June 1, it looks for the moment like the melt-back’s pace is flirting with the 2007 record.
They then go on to report
How much farther the ice will retreat this year remains an open question. Scientists at the National Snow and Ice Data Center in Boulder, Colo., say much depends on seasonal weather patterns through summer’s end.
May’s decline was about average, the center notes. But given the thinness of the ice that emerged from winter and its growing predominance over hardier multi-year ice, NSIDC researchers say they expect 2009 to be another year when the amount of sea ice left at summer’s end will fall short of the 1979-2000 average.
I’m impressed in general with the NSIDC, they do have their own advocates though. We must not ever forget that their funding is dependant on how bad the climate crisis is – unlike big oil who’s profits go up when they cannot drill (another point we shouldn’t forget). Oil companies will drill to gain market share if they are allowed, if they are not allowed by politics – higher profit.
Enter Jennifer Francis, a researcher at Rutger University’s Institute of Marine and Coastal Sciences. She and four colleagues asked a simple question: If you look at real-world measurements, what sort of local and distant effects show up during years where summer sea ice scrapes bottom, figuratively speaking.
In a phone chat, she summarized what she and her team found.
During periods of larger than average summer sea-ice retreat, of course, more dark ocean is exposed to the sun. So the ocean absorbs heat, then releases it back into the atmosphere as fall sets in. This slows the pace at which the near-surface layer of air, the so-called boundary layer, cools.
In the Arctic, this layer typically tends to be very stable and very low to the ground compared with other parts of the globe. The extra warmth the oceans release, however, keeps this layer relatively warm. The warm air expands, increases the thickness of the boundary layer. This, in turn, enables it to hold more heat, Dr. Francis explains. This whole sequence slows the freezing process, retarding the return of winter ice.
This added warmth also allows the air to hold more moisture as seawater evaporates. Clouds increase. The clouds act as a blanket, trapping heat near the surface. And since the clouds appear in the fall, when the hours of daylight up there rapidly dwindle to zero, this heat-trapping effect offsets any cooling one might expect from cloud tops reflecting sunlight back into space.
So far, this is all local to the Arctic region.
It all seems reasonable.
But, Francis continues, her team also saw that the jet stream weakens during the fall and winter following a leaner than normal summer’s worth of Arctic sea ice. The jet stream is a high-altitude, high-speed river of air that spins off eddies that become storm systems. It also steers the storms. Its strength is governed by the size of the temperature differences between the southern and northern portions of the hemisphere. And the net warming effect of low-sea-ice seasons reduces that north-south temperature difference.
The weakened jet stream and shifted storm tracks bring drier-than-normal conditions to much of North America, Alaska, and northern Europe. Conditions tend to be wetter than normal along eastern Greenland, through much of the western and central Mediterranean, Japan, and a patch of the Pacific Northwest.
So we have a weather pattern change which will again apply to decreasing the arctic ice this year.
“Some models do get some of this right,” Francis says, pointing to yet-to be published work by scientists at the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, Colo. The key, she says, is the impact of ice extent on the Arctic’s boundary layer.
Well what do you think? Do the warmers models have it right this time? The news article put up the NSIDC’s latest graph at the head of the post.
Update: May 26 2009 The daily image update has been temporarily suspended because of large areas of missing data in the past week. NSIDC currently gets its data from the SSM/I sensor on the DMSP F13 satellite, which is nearing the end of its operational life and experiencing intermittent problems.
NSIDC has been working on a transition to a newer sensor on the F17 satellite for several months. At this time, we have more than a year of data from F17, which we are using to intercalibrate with F13 data. The F17 data are not yet available for near-real-time updates. We will resume posting daily updates as soon as possible, either from F13, if the present problem is resolved, or from F17, when the transition is complete.
Actually the data going back several months has problems causing the removal ofNOAA 15 data from the record. The NOAA 13 replacement then failed but fortunately NOAA 17 is flying so eventually that will be the satellite data for the continuing record.
We’ll see what that delivers. You can see the May line dropping in the graph above pulling away from the mean. In the meantime JAXA is measuring the same ice cap using a different satellite apparently on a different planet.
You clearly can see the red line for 2009 is tracking right along the average for the last 5 years and is currently higher than any year except 2003.
It’s likely leading into copenhagen this year predictions are going to become ever more dire and outlandish. Unfortunately for the advocates, this is again a cold year with near zero anomalies for global temperature. An average year, not warmer or cooler than the records show.
Watts Up With That has an interesting report reporting a near zero anomaly forUAH.
No global warming again but that won’t stop the media onslought. The media won’t let the data slow them from continuing our march toward world-wide socialist governance. You may find that statement extreme, in which case my opinion is – you aren’t paying attention.