Ship the Water Wings
Posted by Jeff Id on July 22, 2009
I hope they’re shipping the polar bear water wings now. This doesn’t look like it’s going to be a high extent summer. Ice extent seems to be tracking the 2008 level reasonably well, but everything depends on the strength of the current weather pattern -not temperature.
It has a similar melt pattern to 2007 and 2008 on the video, pushing inward from the bearing strait (top left). This was a pattern I noticed from the plots of greatest ice melt and have since read some of the pro’s making comments about the change in water currents. Ice melt has more to do with water flow rate than slight warming of air or water temperature. Current changes can bring a substantial jump in warm water delivery, but the melt rate of ice is non-linear with flow. Combine that with the huge energy content of water in comparison to air and you can get substantial melt variance over time through changes in current.
In the past two years, the melting at this time pushed inward rapidly from the top left down toward the north pole. I don’t have the gut’s of the meteorologists so my prediciton is less risky— There will be many headlines!