Century to Decade Climate Change Created by Planetary Motion
Posted by Jeff Id on August 11, 2009
This video presentation and associated PDF file discuss the issues of solar forcing, TSI datasets, proxies and long term trends. I believe it is one of the better posts here on the Air Vent and it deserves a lot of attention. The presentation is quite exciting from my perspective as it is full of information which would take a long time to uncover but also because it has a unique conclusion which looks like an improvement in temperature signal analysis. It’s also a good skeptic’s presentation.
The video is from a link given in a few short communications with Dr. Scafetta by email regarding his recent disagreement with Benestad and Schmidt. The video is a seminar on Feb 26, of 09 regarding a great number of issues with the IPCC on climate change. If you are at all serious about understanding the detail of climate change or if you are a climatologist I suspect you will find this video informative as it highlights some what I believe are unique and in some cases unpublished (for the next 2 weeks) results of planetary orbits and their effects on climate change. If I’m right, this paper will be very interesting when it comes out.
If you’re just a casual reader, this probably isn’t for you, the video is long and at times technical. However, if you really want to know what the (non-existent because it’s a consensus) debate is about, watch the following video. There is a great deal of detail which is understandable to the serious AGW reader and will likely be misunderstood by the casual observer. Several points were made which went unsaid or incompletely explained which require an understanding of satellite orbits, instrument quality, data steps, general data collection and solar proxies. If you get it, the points are quite interesting and compelling.
The most important issues mentioned are beyond my own experience, at least to the point where it’s new information to me. What happened is Dr. Scafetta has noticed a coherence between measured climate data and the sun’s gravity center velocity which is difficult for me to discount. I’m no climatologist and not a solar physicist but this seems from my reading to be unique to the discussion of solar forcing. In particular look at this plot of the power spectrum of global temps in relation to the plot of the sun’s linear velocity relative to the gravitational center of the solar system.
The sun is of course pulled by planetary gravity in equal measure to the effect it puts on the planets. We all know the equal an opposite reaction from either physics or pushing our friends on the playground. In the case of the sun, the center of solar mass is pulled by little near-star’s and gas giants like Jupiter and Saturn to wobble significantly around the solar systems center of gravity. By adding it all up we know how far off-center the sun is and its cyclic movements creted by orbiting planets can be analyzed using spectral analysis.
The figure above is an amazingly coincidental plot which I for one haven’t seen before. Look at how the different wavelengths align. This is similar to the Milankovitch cycles except the timescale is very limited in comparison. I haven’t verified the data but this doesn’t seem like a minor point at all as Dr. Scafetta uses it to predict the small variances in the future climate of earth over the next 100 years. Something models have been unable to do thus far.
Astoundingly simple really. Thanks to Dr. Scafetta for the link and the video. I hope you enjoy it as much as I did.
For better viewing of the slides Here is the PDF.
The slides themselves don’t do the presentation justice unfortunately. To understand it the presentation is the way to go.