the Air Vent

Because the world needs another opinion

Games Without Frontiers

Posted by Jeff Id on August 11, 2009

HadCrut responded to most if not all of the FOI requests from CA readers on confidentiality agreements for the temp data.

CRU Responds

Apparently, the dog ate the agreements.


9 Responses to “Games Without Frontiers”

  1. Ryan O said

    Not only that, but if you read carefully, the reason the dog ate the agreements is that CRU didn’t pay it enough.
    .
    The FOI responses were truly disappointing. The evidence and reasoning provided for the continued non-release of the data cannot even be called flimsy, and, in any event, contradicted some of the reasons provided in the past.
    .
    In light of the response, I have submitted an additional FOI request that meets all of the criteria outlined in a MET office memo describing the conditions under which the data may be released. They’ll have to come up with a new excuse this time.

  2. Kenneth Fritsch said

    Posted at CA. Am I missing something here?

    From CRU:

    We are not in a position to supply data for a particular country not covered by the example agreements referred to earlier, as we have never had sufficient resources to keep track of the exact source of each individual monthly value. Since the 1980s, we have merged the data we have received into existing series or begun new ones, so it is impossible to say if all stations within a particular country or if all of an individual record should be freely available. Data storage availability in the 1980s meant that we were not able to keep the multiple sources for some sites, only the station series after adjustment for homogeneity issues. We, therefore, do not hold the original raw data but only the value-added (i.e. quality controlled and homogenized) data.

    To repeat: We, therefore, do not hold the original data but only the value-added (i.e. quality controlled and homogenized) data.

    In other words, while the dog ate some of the contractual agreements with the sources for the data, more importantly and embarrassedly the dog also devoured the original data. Given that information is it not totally futile to ever expect to see the original data at least from CRU? Is it not also futile to ever expect CRU to go back to the original data and expect them to attempt to improve on any of their adjustment techniques?

    One could laboriously attempt a CRU reconstruction of original data from GISS data or going back to the data originators as Steve M has attempted. Meanwhile, as a scientist, one could accept CRU on good faith or say, to hell with your sloppiness, and move onto to other data sources where, at least, the originals are available.

  3. Ryan O said

    Ken, I replied at the CA thread, too. I do not believe that CRU does not have the original data. Besides, in the case of the GHCN data, they do have the original data, so their statements are at most only partially true.

  4. Terry said

    Data storage availability in the 1980s meant that we were not able to keep the multiple sources for some sites, only the station series after adjustment for homogeneity issues.

    Moral of the story? Ignorance of the law is no excuse, but storage availability in the 1980s apparently is. Or something like that.

  5. Ryan O said

    Ken, I posted my reasons for believing the CRU statement to be hogwash on CA. Up until this latest round of FOI requests, both the MET Office and CRU themselves believed that CRU maintained an archive of the original data.

  6. Kenneth Fritsch said

    Ryan, see my reply at CA. CRU is having a Madoff moment after years without the original data. Admission of losing the original data should be fatal to future use of the CRU temperature data base.

    Think about it. Without the original data the owners/managers of the data base can no longer justify/show/prove the value added part.

    GISS rules.

  7. Ryan O said

    Ken . . . you may be right. Maybe they just kept up the appearance of holding onto the original data, and now that people are actually calling them on it, they have to admit they don’t have it (or that they don’t have all of it – I’m with Geoff that there are too many hints that at least some of it was retained). Still, my FOI request stands. We’ll see how that comes out.
    .
    BTW, a year ago, I would never have thought I’d say this . . . but yes, GISS rules. Haha! 🙂

  8. Tony Hansen said

    #6 Kenneth,
    But surely they would never have the temerity to make adjustments to the historical data after they had unfortunately/inadvertantly lost/mislaid the original data.
    Afterall; are not these honourable people?
    I believe so, because Phil told me.
    And when I wanted a second opinion he told me again!!!

  9. Kenneth Fritsch said

    Of course, if we could show that GISS and CRU gave the same temperature trends for most of the zonal areas of the globe and the globe, we could simply write off CRU as a superfluous data base with respect to GISS. I think it is time to do some more change point analyses (using R) in comparing the entire available records of GISS, CRU, UAH and RSS. I’ll do that as time permits and post the break points in this thread.

    I do think that the change point comparison is a good statistical way of showing significant differences of temperature series for time segments over the entire time period of interest and not merely pointing to and comparing long term trends for these series. I also think that those differences point to some larger potential errors in these temperature series than one might conclude from reading the marketing reports from their owners. It does not provide a means of determining which series is the most correct and may even indicate that all series have significant errors.

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