Sinkin’ the Source
Posted by Jeff Id on November 11, 2009
UPDATED: I misread the graph, thanks to TTCA who has done a good post on it here.
This post at WUWT is not a small development in global warming. Anyone with any interest at all in global warming needs to read it and understand what it is saying.
The graph below has a thick black line indicating the output from human industry each year. The lines below are the rate of change of CO2 in the atmosphere. If correct the CO2 emitted is being absorbed ever faster rather than building up unchecked.
Figure 1. The annual increase in atmospheric CO2 (as determined from ice cores, thin dotted lines, and direct measurements, thin black line) has remained constantly proportional to the annual amount of CO2 released by human activities (thick black line). The proportion is about 46% (thick dotted line). (Figure source: Knorr, 2009)
Here is the abstract from GRL:
Several recent studies have highlighted the possibility that the oceans and terrestrial ecosystems have started losing part of their ability to sequester a large proportion of the anthropogenic CO2 emissions. This is an important claim, because so far only about 40% of those emissions have stayed in the atmosphere, which has prevented additional climate change.
This study re-examines the available atmospheric CO2 and emissions data including their uncertainties. It is shown that with those uncertainties, the trend in the airborne fraction since 1850 has been 0.7 ± 1.4% per decade, i.e. close to and not significantly different from zero. The analysis further shows that the statistical model of a constant airborne fraction agrees best with the available data if emissions from land use change are scaled down to 82% or less of their original estimates. Despite the predictions of coupled climate-carbon cycle models, no trend in the airborne fraction can be found.
If anyone has a copy of this paper they could share please email me at jeffid1 at gmail dot com.