the Air Vent

Because the world needs another opinion

Archive for November, 2009

Pelosinator

Posted by Jeff Id on November 18, 2009

I’m back and glad to see everyone enjoyed the guest posts so much. While gone I received an email from a family member with a letter written to my least favorite politician Nancy Pelosi. On at least two occasions I’ve heard this narcissist claim to be ‘the most powerful woman in the world’ . What kind of hubris is that??

Anyway besides some unfortunate remarks, this letter sums up the IMO corrupt Pelosi, pretty well.

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Electric Cars

Posted by Jeff Id on November 13, 2009

A Jones has written a cool article about electric cars.

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The author is a physicist and engineer with additional degree equivalent qualifications in accountancy, economics and management. He worked for the UK government (HMG) and in 1974 was transferred to a newly formed division considering how to mitigate the effects of the oil price shock which included examining all possible alternative sources of energy as to cost and effectiveness. In 1976 he became increasingly involved in the electric car team and was formally seconded to it in 1977 when it became the Electric Car Group, (ECG) which had a brief from HMG to develop and report on the technology of a practical small electric city car and provide technical support to British manufacturers. He retired some years ago. The views expressed below are entirely his own as are any errors.

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Gone for Several Days

Posted by Jeff Id on November 13, 2009

I’m going north to rid the earth of the most evil of all creatures — Deers. We shall celebrate our victory by drinking beer and eating their charred flesh! Do not dispair though. Lately I’ve been given the opportunity to carry a large number of guest posts which should make for some good reading.

Here is an absolutely fantastic post by Tony Brown on the history of thermometers. As always with Tony, it is well researched, professionally written and a very worthwhile read. In days where trees can be thermometers, why don’t we use actual thermometers?

Little Ice Age thermometers – History and Reliability

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My view of this next post is which is an open letter reply to another letter written to the US government. The original letter IMO is a politically motivated letter only. It was written by the leaders (fund collectors) of 18 scientific agencies declaring consensus and urging action on climate change. I consider the original 18 agency letter to be full of flat lies and of political origin only. It is absolutely the most unscientific piece of rubbish you can imagine.

In it, the “scientists”(a generous definition) spent a great deal of time lying about climate change impacts finishing by hinting at socialist solutions to all of our problems. Many of these organizations do not represent their members views. Please understand these are my views and not necessarily represented by Dr. AB. However, he has taken the time to put together an open letter of response which will be sent next week.

Open Letter On Climate Legislation

A third post written by a writer who pens under – A Jones is an interesting engineering perspective on electric cars. It’s a good article for engineers which demonstrates that many of the big problems with electric cars had been solved long ago.

Electric Cars

Finally, in case you haven’t read it my post on temperature significance. When people tell you it really not cooling in the last 10 years because of statistical variation, you can point out then by their logic, it hasn’t warmed in the last 17 or 15 (your choice) and link to this post.

No Warming for Fifteen Years?

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Open Letter On Climate Legislation

Posted by Jeff Id on November 13, 2009

An open letter reply to a letter written to government by 18 different scientific organizations concerning climate change legislation by Dr. Arnd Bernaerts.

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Little Ice Age thermometers – History and Reliability

Posted by Jeff Id on November 13, 2009

How reliable are The Little Ice Age thermometers ?

The Little Ice age thermometers project is an attempt to compile instrumental readings from 1660 that predate the era of modern ‘global temperaturesas recorded by Hadley (1850) and Giss (1880). These datasets are accessed from a graphic through this link;

http://climatereason.com/LittleIceAgeThermometers/

LIA-thermometers

The project will examine the reliability of these historic datasets as a means for climate researchers to gaze into our past to see if there are any lessons for the present. In this respect many of those individual stations found to date will have been included in the Cru datasets that are not readily accessible to those outside selected members of the scientific community. In order to examine these records and place them into context with Hadley/Cru and Giss, the author has produced three separate but interlinked articles as follows;

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No Warming for Fifteen Years?

Posted by Jeff Id on November 12, 2009

The recent cooling shown in most global temperature datasets except GISS has been a spot of contention for the AGW believers. Global cooling has been an embarassing topic for those who have made careers of predicting worse than we thought warming every few weeks. This is especially contentious point for scientists who’s careers depend on warming.

A comment sent to me by email pointed to this post by Dr. Eric Steig on another blog.

21. At 9:42pm on 09 Nov 2009, Eric Steig wrote:Paul,

It is well known this “warming has stopped” idea is a complete red herring, as we have patiently explained here:

http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2008/11/mind-the-gap

and here:

http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2009/10/a-warming-pause

Your article merely promotes further confusion and misinformation by adding the mark of credibility that “BBC meterologist” provides. The preceding comment by “timjenvey” is a typical example characteristic of the misuse of the data that is the result. (Why does he choose October only, for example?)

Now Dr. Steig is mostly correct in my opinion, and I don’t disagree with him on this. However, the argument should have been warming did pause – a little, it simply doesn’t prove anything about CO2 driving climate. But the pause has caused some red faces WRT computer models – see Lucia(the Blackboard) and Chad (treesfortheforest). I am a believer in some level of global warming but the arguments used in the links above cut both ways.

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Sinkin’ the Source

Posted by Jeff Id on November 11, 2009

UPDATED: I misread the graph, thanks to TTCA who has done a good post on it here.

This post at WUWT is not a small development in global warming. Anyone with any interest at all in global warming needs to read it and understand what it is saying.

The graph below has a thick black line indicating the output from human industry each year. The lines below are the rate of change of CO2 in the atmosphere. If correct the CO2 emitted is being absorbed ever faster rather than building up unchecked.


Figure 1. The annual increase in atmospheric CO2 (as determined from ice cores, thin dotted lines, and direct measurements, thin black line) has remained constantly proportional to the annual amount of CO2 released by human activities (thick black line). The proportion is about 46% (thick dotted line). (Figure source: Knorr, 2009)

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Why Yamal Matters Part III

Posted by Jeff Id on November 11, 2009

Guest post by John Pittman

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Why Yamal Matters Part III

We start with the summary at p683 Chapter 9 Attributing Climate Change.

P 683 The Summary “”When driven with estimates of external forcing for the last millennium, AOGCMs simulate changes in hemispheric mean temperature that are in broad agreement with proxy reconstructions (given their uncertainties), increasing confidence in the forcing reconstructions, proxy climate reconstructions and models. In addition, the residual variability in the proxy climate reconstructions that is not explained by forcing is broadly consistent with AOGCM-simulated internal variability. Overall, the information on temperature change over the last millennium is broadly consistent with the understanding of climate change in the instrumental era.””

http://www.cafepress.com/luciablackboard shows another reason that these reconstruction issues matter. I like Lucia’s graph. It is straight forward and easy to understand. It also makes the next point easy to make. First we are going to state what the skeptics are talking about. In simple terms if the reconstructions are wrong, or the confidence intervals too wide such that the MWP could be and was warmer, we would expect to see what Lucia’s graph shows. Even though, they claim and it was true at the time,

AOGCMs simulate changes in hemispheric mean temperature that are in broad agreement with proxy reconstructions (given their uncertainties), increasing confidence in the forcing reconstructions, proxy climate reconstructions and models.

That was then, Lucia’s is now. At this point we can say AOGCM’s are not in broad agreement with the hemispheric mean temperatures presently experienced, and thus decreasing our confidence in the forcing reconstructions, proxy climate reconstructions and models.

But the AGW are correct in pointing out it is just barely out; and it is too short of time to draw conclusions yet.

But wait, the IPCC linked all of these together which means now we have less confidence in proxy climate reconstructions, based on the present or near falsification at 95% levels of the AOGCMs, and work by Steve McIntyre, Jean S, UC, JeffID, etc, which reduces confidence in the forcing reconstructions. If we have less confidence in the AOGCM, by a measurement independent of the proxy reconstructions, and less confidence in the proxy reconstructions independent of the AOGCMs results at backcasting, then we have much less confidence in the forcing reconstructions. Those projections that trillions of dollars to be spent, and the present direction the IPCC recommendations depend on, are now much weakened.

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Michael Mann, Having an impact

Posted by Jeff Id on November 10, 2009

There was an absolutely fantastic quote from the recent Finnish news program including Steve McIntyre on hockey sticks.  People have bent over backwards from RC and elsewhere to accept an upside down proxy as real data.  It’s been entertaining to say the least.  Here is an excerpt which should bring joy to the hearts of anyone who’s been snipped at RC while trying to discuss real science.

From Finland: url

 

VO: At least two research teams close to the IPCC added the sediment data collected by Finnish researchers as part of their own paleoclimatic model reconstructions. This was done with agreement, but the Finns were surprised to see that in a study published this September, their data and interpretation of its’ meaning had been turned upside down. Here is the millennial temperature reconstruction from Korttajärvi done by the Finns:VO: And here we have the same data presented by the hockey team:

VO: A nice hockey stick has emerged from the Korttajärvi mud. What in the Finnish study signified cold, had been turned into warmth in the IPCC science and vice versa. This interpretation passed the scientific peer review.

Dr. Atte Korhola, professor of environmental change at the University of Helsinki, is an expert in lake sediment studies.

Atte Korhola: “Some curves and data have been used upside down, and this is not a compliment to climate science. And in this context it is relevant to note that the same people who are behind this are running what may be the world’s most influential climate website, RealClimate. With this they are contributing to the credibility of science – or reducing it. And in my opinion this is alarming because it bears on the credibility of the field, and if these kinds of things emerge often – that data have been used insufficiently or even falsely, or if data series have been truncated or they have not been appropriately published (for replication), it obviously erodes the credibility, and this is a serious problem.”

VO: The author of the September study, Darrell Kaufman, admitted his mistake two weeks ago and sent a correction to the journal Science. But the main author of a previous study, Michael Mann, the father of the original hockey stick, still sticks to the claim that a hockey stick was found at the bottom of lake Korttajärvi.

It’s like a breath of fresh air when things make sense.  The full Finnish video is on YouTube now:

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My Finnish is a bit rusty but Steve McIntyre and Dr. Lindzen are both in there.  It’s worth listening to.

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Statistical Significance in Satellite Data

Posted by Jeff Id on November 9, 2009

If you’ve been following along here you probably suspected the difference between UAH and RSS are substantial enough to reach 95% significance. In this short post, you can see you were right. Significance is a measure of likelihood that the short term noise is creating the slope we see. Now since we’re looking at a difference between two series measuring the same thing, a simple reasonable method is to take the difference between the two series and look at the residuals for significance.

Global RSS and UAH temperature anomalies look like this.

UAH full Read the rest of this entry »

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None of the Above – An alternate solution to global warming

Posted by Jeff Id on November 9, 2009

Recently, I’ve read on several blogs the proprietors belief in mitigation.  It’s a common theme on even skeptic blogs and none of us like pollution so it makes sense at that level.  Here I propose the opposite is a better strategy for mitigation.  After all, it’s not about how much CO2 we emit now, it’s how much we emit before better solutions can be implemented.  This is where I propose the all of the above mitigation argument falls short.

I’ve never offered an opinion on whether CO2 is creating global warming, the theory makes some sense but even  the 1.2 degree minimum calculated a century ago has some problems.  It’s complicated so we rely on incomplete models for future climate and some very poor data and math for historic climate reconstructions to create a picture.  To compound matters liberalism and socialism have corrupted the science to a point where many papers are invalid.   Claims about  shrinking fish due to global warming is a good example but there are many others.  The scientists still get government grant money though, and the government is happy to pay because 100 percent of the solution to this potentially manufactured problem is increased government control.  Our founding fathers warned endlessly about this.

In the global ‘mitigation’ strategy money is taken from countries described as rich and given to countries described as developing, in addition massive and economy crushing limits are placed on production.  Now I’ve already made the point that developing country means – repressed by socialism and dictatorship religious or otherwise but rich country is an equal misnomer.  This Copenhagen wording is a mechanism to force a communistic style redistribution of wealth to countries who don’t deserve support.  It is my contention that the argument has nothing to do with the good of the planet but is rather for the personal interests of the politicians.

It is my contention that the proposed solutions are not good for the planet and will actually result in the creation of more CO2. In addition it is my contention that organizations such as think progress, greenpeace and even the UN politicians and world governments secretly agree with me.  The unstated purpose is repression of the economy, not for the good of the people but rather for the prosperity of their own personal lives.  Now there are plenty of minions in these groups who fully believe they are working to save the planet but my contention is that the leaders do not.  When you consider it in that light the irrational promotion of non-science by the UN IPCC, EPA and numerous other organizations in the face of all reasoned criticism is explained.

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The Unstoppable Dirty Dozen

Posted by Jeff Id on November 8, 2009

Science is good fun. Lately we’ve been working with an unnamed paleoclimatologist who goes by the handle of Delayed.Oscillator. He’s been good enough to answer some questions on dendroclimatology temperature reconstructions. Recently I’ve made comments about the Yamal series data and Briffa’s corrections about not allowing for trees to grow faster as they age. Briffa uses an exponential decay for his corrections to Yamal tree growth which looks like this:

yamalex

Figure 1

The data is divided by the red line in top pane in the above plots. It has been my contention that since the red line drops well below the rest of the data it amplifies the older data creating an artificial uptick at the end of the reconstruciton. DO has made the following statement at his blog:

Let me be as clear as I can be, there is no sign that I can detect that it is old trees that increase their growth at Yamal (even if identified, this phenomenon would require some hypothesis as to the cause), At Yamal, a portion of the old trees are those that were growing together during a period of climate warming. If you examine the raw ring width, there are a few fossil series that have rapid increases toward the end. If Jeff’s hypothesis were correct, we’d expect these to be the oldest, right? In fact, the seven subfossil samples I identified as having rapidly increasing growth in their later years, six had a wide range of ages from 90 to 180 years (this comes with the caveat that we don’t know the exact pith age).

Now DO beat me to an analysis suggested by Steve Fitzpatrick to separate the recent old trees from the historic old trees and verify whether the U shape in pane 1 above (the average of all old trees) is a result of recent climate or is a standard shape in older trees. There are plenty of explanations as to why trees can grow faster in older age that we can be certain DO is aware of so the parenthetic portion is a bit grumpy of him. In DO’s conclusion his plot looked like this:

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American Folley

Posted by Jeff Id on November 8, 2009

Please read this at Watts Up With That. We don’t have much time left and this is a true tipping point, the suffering will be of a greater magnitude than anything predicted by AGW Advocates.  It will not be localized to America.

A Tale of Two Overkills

It’s time to stop the insanity and bring reason back to governance.

We are such fools.

 

 

 

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Hero

Posted by Jeff Id on November 7, 2009

This thread is in replacement of the last. You may leave comments here about Kimberly only, at least this we can agree on. The last thread was a bit wild but we’ve said our piece. Please don’t make attempts to continue the last thread here.

Kimberly Munley, the police officer who heroically charged into the enclosed room to confront the extremist Muslim terrorist and put to an end to the worst shooting rampage in US military history and the only extremist attack on US soil since 9/11. She nearly lost her life after being shot by the man multiple times.

abc_kim_munley_091106_mn[1]

Thank you for halting this evil tragedy when you did.

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Invisible Elephants

Posted by Jeff Id on November 5, 2009

Guest post by Tony Brown investigating the longest temperature records.  Tony has put together a well referenced post containing an interactive graphic which allows clicking on a location to see the individual records. WordPress free version won’t allow it to function so check out the link.   I think you’ll find it interesting.

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This graphic

http://climatereason.com/LittleIceAgeThermometers/

LIA-thermometers

Pic Snapped by Lucy Skywalker

contains some 50 Instrumental temperature records that precede the 1850 Hadley Global temperature information. (Just press on a red dot on the globe)  There will be a well referenced study behind it in due course to put this information into perspective. It will hopefully become an invaluable resource for all researchers of climate.

These records provide a wealth of historic climate data for much of the Northern Hemisphere during a significant portion of the Little Ice Age. The datasets not only chart the considerable temperature variations through the centuries but also reflect the growth of the places they are located in, as many of the locations have developed from small towns in the 17th Century to large cities today.

I am currently looking for any more long data sets so this facility can be enhanced. Uccle (Belgium), St Petersburg and Lima (Peru) will be added shortly. I am looking for Cadiz/San Fernando and any others not already mentioned here. The criteria are pre 1850,which can be slipped ten years if it covers an area not already well represented.

The comprehensive study will tell much more, but after sifting through vast amounts of information and corresponding with a wide range of sources I would like to make a few interim observations.

There appear to be a herd of very large elephants in the climate room that are apparently completely invisible. The first is one called ‘global temperatures to 1850 that has a cousin 1880.

These global datasets are astonishingly complex, based on very small numbers of stations which continually change, and appear to be mainly a record of the 0.2% of the globe that has become urbanised, rather than represent the 99.8% of the world that isn’t. Therefore these creatures are to be treated with the utmost caution.

The next elephant is one called UHI. Many people seem to spend a lot of time looking the other way when UHI rampages by, including the IPCC.

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