the Air Vent

Because the world needs another opinion

Butterflies – flews?

Posted by Jeff Id on March 19, 2010

In case you thought Climategate would settle down the fear mongering, guess what!!

Early butterflies linked to global warming

Researchers say they have proven for the first time that man-made global warming is changing an animal’s life-cycle.

I guess they didn’t read about shrinking fish or sheep, or perhaps the paper on tougher beef – a truly scary prediction.

Butterflies are emerging in spring more than 10 days earlier than they did 65 years ago, and this shift is linked to climate change, reports a University of Melbourne-led study.

You’ve heard the fable about the flapping butterfly wing causing the leaf to fall early, which causes ant’s to be delayed in their travel, and that causes whatever — soon the world is changed completely.  One thing we definitely don’t want, is early butterfly birth,  the consequences of which could be disasterous, I suppose.

Butterflies that already live on mountaintops and can’t adjust to the heat have “nowhere else to go but heaven,” Arthur Shapiro, a biologist at University of California-Davis who collected the data, told USA TODAY in a story last month.

So the bugs are dying on mountaintops?  Has anyone seen said bugs?

A third study, published in September in Biology Letters, found that climate change was one possible explanation for a sharp decline in female monarch butterflies in the eastern United States and Mexico.

Of course they found climate change was an explanation, how else would they get funding?  You know, that’s one of the fallacies of the advocate argument, professors aren’t getting rich they say.   I say no they’re not but they are getting cushy six figure jobs for turning out fear mongering tripe at an alarming rate.  Go ahead and tell me there is no motivation — bull.  Why do climate scientists get paid as much as other profs?  Is Phil Jones paid an average salary, below average or above for a prof at his university?  How many days does/did he teach vs do research?

The study comes as conservationists warn that a third of Europe’s butterflies are in decline, reports the United Kingdom’s Mail Online.

Well, it isn’t going to stop.  They may be right that butterflies are changing their patterns, I don’t know but these guys are never going to stop the fear mongering until the free money stops flowing.


34 Responses to “Butterflies – flews?”

  1. PhilJourdan said

    But…But…But….they said Global Warming had only been going on for about 30 years. Then Phil Jones said it took a vacation for the last 15 years….So how can it be for the last 65 years?

  2. Chuckles said

    Must be that damn butterfly from Lorenz time that caused all the trouble. Tornados, Brazil, Australia whatever.

  3. Bob Kutz said

    so . . . butterflies are emerging earlier, and that’s linked to increased temperatures, and that proves it is caused by manmade global warming how exactly?

    The B.S. continues, for now.

  4. SteveWH said

    Recently I was on a cruise in Antarctica. On the ship was a elderly (~82 yrs) biologist who had been working in the Antarctic since 1947. He was one of 3 people giving lectures on the cruise.

    Interesting fellow, who did not believe in GW, calling it Climate Variability. During a lecture on Ernest Shackleton, he was remarking on how Shackleton raised money. He (and others)just had to mention Antarctica and the money was there as Antarctic exploration was all the rage then. I thought to myself how things stay the same. In a private conversation he mentioned that he thought ~40% of the scientists mentioned AGW just to get money. He didn’t have to go that route because he had his book revenues (and lecture fees I would guess)to finance his research.

    Ya he was at odds with the other 2 younger scientists on board.

  5. Chuckles said

    Bob Kutz, Glad you asked that, here’s how:

    ‘The team raised caterpillars of the Common Brown Butterfly in the laboratory to measure the physiological impact of temperature on its rate of development.
    They used this information to model the effect of observed historical climate trends in Melbourne on the speed of the butterfly’s development.
    They combined this with global climate model outputs for the Melbourne area over the same period to examine whether natural climate variability or human influence on climate was more likely to have caused the air temperature change seen in Melbourne.’

  6. Jeff Id said

    ‘The team raised caterpillars of the Common Brown Butterfly in the laboratory to measure the physiological impact of temperature on its rate of development. –cool part

    They used this information to model the effect of observed historical climate trends in Melbourne on the speed of the butterfly’s development. — cool part

    They combined this with global climate model outputs for the Melbourne area over the same period to examine whether natural climate variability or human influence on climate was more likely to have caused the air temperature change seen in Melbourne. –crashing glass.

  7. Andrew said

    The population of Melbourne in 1956: 1,500,000. The population in 2009: 4,000,000.

    Golly if that isn’t gonna get you some man made warming, what would?

    But seriously, do they really think that butterflies won’t be able to adjust to future and past changes? Doesn’t what they are supposedly doing prove that they are adjusting?

  8. Chuckles said

    Whoops, sorry about the crystal there Jeff, please step away from the glassware.

    The study was originally a biosciences study on habitats and adaptation, then suddenly there was a ‘project update’, and our AGW angle and the ‘conclusive proof’ appears – as per ABC –

    ‘The final step taken by the researchers was to link the regional temperature changes with human-induced global warming.

    Team member climatologist, Professor David Karoly applied global circulation models to the Melbourne region, taking into account local factors that influence climate.

    This suggested that the regional temperature changes observed over the decade were unlikely to be observed without the influence of human greenhouse emissions, says Kearney.’

  9. AMac said

    > Butterflies that already live on mountaintops and can’t adjust to the heat have “nowhere else to go but heaven

    Did these butterflies (and other living things) survive the Younger Dryas, when it was colder than now? Did they survive the Holocene Optimum, when it was warmer?

    If they didn’t…

  10. TGSG said

    If they didn’t… they are already in heaven and time travelers are bringing them back yearly to confound and confuse!

  11. curious said

    Sort of related I think:

    http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/asia/article7067989.ece

    Worth reading to the end!🙂

  12. Carrick said

    Chuckles:

    They combined this with global climate model outputs for the Melbourne area over the same period to examine whether natural climate variability or human influence on climate was more likely to have caused the air temperature change seen in Melbourne.’

    Brahahahaha!

    We should ignore global climate trends over a decade because the models lack fidelity, but naturally if you decrease the area you’re interested in changes in, suddenly they become much more skillful!

    (Of course they have that backwards, but whatever).

  13. Robert E. Phelan said

    I’m kind of reminded of Kurt Kasznar’s character in the 1952 movie “The Happy Time”:

    “A butterfly bite to a man in my condition could be fatal!”

  14. Ron H. said

    Early butterflies linked to global warming

    Damn! haven’t I read this story every year for the past 8 years?

  15. Paul Z. said

    Dear Friends of Truth,

    Please do not allow our governments to ram down our throats a new carbon tax and emmissions trading ponzi scheme, that is based on the pseudoscience of the IPCC. How can you trade something you can’t see or hold?

    The reality is, despite the daily lies spouted in the mainstream media, there is no conclusive evidence of man-made global warming caused by CO2 (a harmless gas plants need to make food). The only conclusive evidence we have is of IPCC-linked scientists, bankers, and politicians who all have their hands in the cookie jar of carbon commissions.

    I ask you to judge these proponents of man-made global warming on these three simple rules:

    1) Tell the truth.
    2) Don’t hide or spin the truth.
    3) Admit and take responsibility for your errors.

    Have any of these following individuals fulfilled these three simple rules?

    – Al Gore
    – Rajendra Pachauri
    – Michael Mann
    – Phil Jones
    – Kevin Rudd
    – Ed Miliband
    – Barack Obama

    Have these people shown integrity and responsibility in the conduct of their affairs? Should we base the entire overhaul of our economic system and way of life on the words of these people?

    When I was young, I was taught this and it still rings true today:

    “Your word is your bond,
    Once broken, the trust is gone.”

    Please do not allow the greedy bankers, politicians, yes-man scientists, and unelected UN bureaucrats to dictate how we should live our lives.

    Already, the UN secretary Ban Ki-Moon is pushing for global carbon taxation. THEY ARE TRYING TO SNEAK THIS UNDER OUR NOSES. For example, see here:
    http://www.theeastafrican.co.ke/news/IMF%20proposes%20climate%20change%20kitty%20/-/2558/878408/-/yco3d3z/-/

    The rich and wealthy people don’t care. Laws that affect the middle class don’t apply to them. “Let them eat carbon” for all they care. Remember, most of these rich people own the hedge funds and venture capital that are all heavily invested in “green” technology — and they are lobbying hard for carbon emmissions trading because they are going to make a lot of money at the expense of middle-class taxpayers.

    The issue of global warming was never about saving the environment. It’s all about scaring, extorting, and controlling middle class taxpayers. For the UN, this carbon emmissions ponzi scheme is the perfect cash cow to fund their New World Order agenda–no need for accountability and cannot be prosecuted by law.

    Even worse, they are now attempting the unforgivable, which is to brainwash and indoctrinate our children into believing the global warming hogwash. Hitler youth, anyone? You can try and scare me but HANDS OFF MY KIDS. Growing up is hard enough, they don’t need the added burden and guilt of a false idealogy.

    It’s time to close the IPCC. It’s time to close the UN. Warn everyone you know about how the UN is hijacking our democracy and pushing their one world government agenda, so they can one day control the masses as they wish. So much power in the hands of a few unelected people, how can abuse and corruption not take place?

    PLEASE BE VIGILANT. Our way of life is currently under serious threat from this unelected clique of elites under the guise of man-made global warming. THEY ARE TRYING AND WILL KEEP TRYING TO SNEAK CARBON TAXATION AND CARBON EMISSIONS TRADING UNDER OUR NOSES.

    Please write to or call your representatives and tell them that you do not accept the pseudoscience of the IPCC/UN. Call for independent inquiries into the various AGW-related scandals errupting now but conveniently being swept under the carpet. Ask the AG to investigate Al Gore for fraud. Vote out any representative who continues to push this false religion of AGW.

    Thank you.

    Special note on Obama: When Obama was first elected, I had great hopes for him and his administration. In recent times, it has dawned on me that he is just a self-serving politician no different from Al Gore, out to make a quick buck at the expense of American taxpayers. Don’t be fooled by the current healthcare reform nonsense–this is just a smokescreen for Obama and his wealthy patrons’ real agenda: to push through a carbon emissions trading system in the US. Note how Obama tries to stay away from this issue at the same time instructing the EPA to regulate CO2. Further note how Obama played a crucial role in founding the Chicago Climate Exchange, of which now Rajendra Pachauri and Maurice Strong are board members.

  16. Tonyb said

    Jeff

    Many species breed earlier/later or migrate during climatic changes-some go North to find cooler climes some go south to escape the warmth.

    Fish are a very good thermometer of change. I wrote a long thread on CA once entitled ‘fish as a temperature proxy’ when I examined local fishing records back to the 12th Century. Our local fishermen also found the Newfoundland cod fishery (next bay up from mine is Labrador Bay) and hunted for whales so there is a vast amount of information from a very wide area.

    Pilchards equals warmth; Herring are intermediate; Cod equals Cold. Close by my house on the South Coast of Devon (England) is extensive evidence of the Pilchard industry prevalent in the MWP (The Pilchard Inn dates to 1300) It died out in the LIA and came back strongly in the 1700’s and 1920’s. The absences of our local fishermen on lengthy trips to Newfoundland hundreds of years ago had a profound effect on the social fabric of our town.

    Similarly there is vast amounts of evidence of insects, birds animals, trees and humans etc all moving to regions more climatically suited to them at the time.

    Hubert Lamb details many of these migrations in his book ‘Climate history and the Modern world’.

    There is nothing at all out of the ordinary that Butterflies would move around in our current era or breed earlier.

    Tonyb

  17. Adam Gallon said

    Not butterflies, but Daffodils!
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/topics/weather/7456054/Coldest-winter-in-30-years-hits-daffodil-festival.html

    “Thousands of people from across the country visit the village of Thriplow, Herts, every year to admire the daffodils.
    But the festival has been hit by the late arrival of Spring and for the first time since it began in 1969 the bulbs are up but there are no yellow blooms so far with the show starting on Saturday”

  18. Tonyb said

    Further to my #16 and seeing as this butterfly study came from Melbourne, it is relevant to point out that the Australian newspapers were full of the ‘unprecedented’ heat wave this year.

    There were reports of the heat being so great that bats and parrots were falling out of the sky dead-compelling proof surely?

    This report probably sums it up well:

    “An immense flight of bats driven before the wind, covered all the trees around the settlement, whence they every moment dropped dead or in a dying state, unable longer to endure the burning state of the atmosphere. Nor did the ‘perroquettes’, though tropical birds, bear it better. The ground was strewn with them in the same condition as the bats.”

    The trouble is this last report came from an eye witness account from 1790! Thee is nothing new under the sun if you dig hard enough to find it. I think Modern climate researchers have lost their shovels.

    http://ebooks.adelaide.edu.au/t/tench/watkin/

    Tonyb

  19. Chuckles said

    #12,

    Carrick,
    Yes indeed, straight from the university press release it was.
    Wonderful the detail from these global climate models on a local scale.

    Just David Karoly trying to make an honest crust I suppose.

  20. curious said

    tonyb – re: fish as a proxy. I had heard the Canadian cod fishery has recovered recently and this has been prompted by ocean temp. changes. I haven’t got a reference I’m afraid – I heard it because orders for trawl gear have increased: could a proxy proxy study be worthwhile?!

  21. Tonyb said

    Curious

    If someone gave me the money I’d do a proxy proxy proxy. Perhaps it could be paid for by Big Fish)oil 🙂

    tonyb

  22. Loco said

    Arrrgh! I hate this butterfly nonsense. As a humble Aussie fighting the alarmist hysteria down-under… this specious piece of drivel makes me embarrassed at what our taxpayer dollars are being spent on! Now I have to go and vomit. How many gates do we need to close before we can lock the final one and throw away the key?
    http://www.ocregister.com/common/printer/view.php?db=ocregister&id=234092

  23. Peter Dunford said

    Does anybody here ski? Are the slopes covered in caterpillars or butterflies yet? Are there any reports of freezing climbers surviving by cooking and eating them? Sherpas complaining about having to wipe them off their boots? If anyone wants plant a storey for AR5, this seems to be a good place to start.

    Curious #20, another good storey for AR5, we just need to revise the storey about the Canadian government banning cod fishing in the Northern Cod Fishery in 1992 after stocks collapsed by 99%. It is NOT true that they wanted to allow the fish stocks time to recover In fact they’d heard about global warming by then and thought rising temperatures would make the fish re-appear.

  24. Peter Dunford said

    Oops, sorry, typo – storey / story. I’ve been working on some building plans, and forgot to switch spelling mode to the climate science version.

    OT. How about an open – on-going thread called “Will it be in AR5?” people could contribute brief details and citations for articles that should never make it into AR5 but, based on AR4, well might. There could be categories like “hearsay evidence”, “obvious bollocks” and “how on earth could anyone draw that conclusion from this evidence?”.

    (It will obviously be tempting to immediately pencil the Muir Russell review into the third category until it actually reports.)

    This might serve to shame the authors of AR5 into doing a proper job this time, or failing that, provide a handy all-in-one-place reference to check AR5 against. Or is this a website all of it’s own?

  25. Alan D McIntire said

    Here’s one of my favorite stories of grants tied to global warming:

    “September 11, 2009 Scientific American
    Underwater Rover Searches the Ocean Floor for Signs of Climate Change
    Scientists at the Monterey Bay Aquarium Research Institute sent an aquatic robot on a test run deep below the Pacific Ocean this summer

    By Larry Greenemeier ”

    Obviously they wanted a grant to study deep sea life. The only way they could
    GET the money was by tieing the study in with some BS about studying
    global warming- They were obviously addressing global warming just to placate the higher ups who APPROVE the grant money. They’ll study deep sea life, their main objective,
    and obviously they have no long term data, so they will need funds for two or three decades of continuing research to detect any CHANGES in the deep ocean climate- A. McIntire

  26. Tom Fuller said

    Wow. They find proof that a species can adapt to climate change which should be great news, trumpeted everywhere as providing hope that mass extinctions are not inevitable.

    And they spin it like this?

    A certain lack of shame…

  27. RB said

    A lot of these things are quite common to science. Applying information theory to explaining everything led to an editorial decrying the trend called ‘Information theory, photosynthesis and religion.’
    Claude Shannon wrote a mathematical definition of information based on the concept of entropy in thermodynamics, and this proved very useful for coding, data compression, encryption, and other aspects of information processing. But that’s it. Some people thought it would be useful in linguistics, psychology, economics, biology, and even the arts. But Shannon stated to science writer John Horgan, “Somehow people think it can tell you things about meaning, but it can’t and wasn’t intended to”.

  28. […] Going green is no longer a choice, Follow the money, Now its butterflies that ‘prove’ the fraud, […]

  29. Basil said

    What Tome Fuller (#26) said.

    Many species are very good at adapting to change. As the climate warms, many species ranges move north (in the NH), but not their southern extent, so that there ranges are expanding and enhancing biodiversity.

    Climate warming? Bring it on!

  30. AEGeneral said

    My dog was in heat in February. This study convinced me it’s linked to climate change.

    Forget the fact that we just had one of our coldest February’s in decades. Irrelevant! Science has clearly demonstrated that even when I was freezing my nuts off, the planet was still warming. Maybe I was just imagining how cold I was last month.

    For the love of God, my dog was in heat when it was snowing. That’s proof positive because dogs know stuff that humans don’t. A lot more than butterflies can. Dogs predict stuff, you know. They’re in tune with the earth, just like Indians.

    If I sound like an idiot, that was the intent.

  31. leavecincy said

    Don’t you just hate it nature doesn’t confine its activities to the dictates of man.

  32. Geoff Sherrington said

    I’ve not read the butterfly paper, but metro Melbourne has warmed more this century than surrounding rural sites, by a few deg C depending on which study you prefer. I hope the authors used a remote place for temperature data.

    This biological pattern variability is old hat, of course. Here’s Al, from “Earth in the Balance, 1992 edition, pages 85-86 re hole in ozone layer letting in more UV light. “In Queensland, Australia ….” whose southernmost part is about 25 degrees S of the Equator, we wonder about the relevance of the Antarctic ozone hole. But not so in Patagonia, which goes south to 56 degrees, we are at least closer to the OH!

    Al writes “In Patagonia, hunters now report finding blind rabbits; fishermen catch blind salmon.”

    Problem is, systematic and useful global UV measurements did not exist when Al wrote his book. From http://www.ciesin.org/docs/001-503/001-503.html, there were fewer than 30 stations world-wide by 1980, initially established for skin cancer study and so concentrating on particular parts of the spectrum.

    BTW, while looking for UV graphs, I found this nostalgia:
    http://stephenschneider.stanford.edu/Publications/PDF_Papers/DamonLaut2004.pdf

    Sub-title is “Pattern of Strange Errors Plagues Solar Activity and Terrestrial Climate Data” authors Damon & Laut.

    Also BTW, I have yet to find a graph showing UV irradiance by year. The ELDONET program in Europe has some if you ask by email, but they seem to start in the late 1990s, a bit late for Al to be wise. I think I feel a dig coming on. When was UV on Earth systematically monitored to the degree of confidence needed to support the Montreal Protocol?

  33. Andrew said

    32-Henrik disputes those claims:

    http://www.space.dtu.dk/upload/institutter/space/forskning/05_afdelinger/sun-climate/full_text_publications/comment%20to%20eos_28_sept_04.pdf

  34. j ferguson said

    Many years ago, our daughter spoke up at Thanksgiving dinner about something she’d learned at Montessori. Namely, that Columbus had told the queen of Spain that he was setting out to prove the world was flat. Reason was that if he had told her he thought it was round, there wouldn’t have been any funding.

    Even a six year old could understand it.

    This sounds like they’d been read to from H.H. Smith.

    On a similar vein, doubtless the complete absence from our streets of Ford Model Ts can be ascribed to global warming. They had convection cooling systems – no water pumps and just couldn’t handle the heat.

    If you doubt this, when’s the last time you saw one? They used to be everywhere.

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