Guest post by Roddy Campbell
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Some comments on Judith Curry’s blog post on ‘Doubt’ explored what we know about the causes of ‘Natural Variability’, and hence whether we can predict it based upon that knowledge, or whether the null hypothesis of more of the same is the best and simplest option. Clearly without some assessment of likely natural variability, discerning man’s fingerprint becomes harder.
I have some personal experiences which I think can shed light on this question.
My wife’s moods have considerable natural variability. I am, of course, an ACC adherent, like any right-thinking man, if of a ‘lukecoldist’ persuasion, and I believe that my man-made impacts may well have had a cumulative effect on Gaia (my wife), which may at least in part explain a multi-decadal apparent cooling. The physical side of this is well-understood, most famously in ancient Hindu texts, with later studies in Vienna, and is beyond reasonable argument, although laboratory experiments are difficult as most of us only have one wife. (Apologies, if needed, to all women – I can write only from the husband’s point of view.)
I am however aware, and my therapist has been of use here, that distinguishing my fingerprint from natural variation and natural trends, and being specific about attributing changes in temperature, climate, and extreme weather events to my actions in the Campbell household is not easy. She has suggested that feelings of guilt may be at play here, the allocation of scarce time and resources, and the all-important impact that population explosion can have on the environment.
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