the Air Vent

Because the world needs another opinion

Archive for September, 2010

Leaps of faith and Conjoined Science

Posted by Jeff Id on September 17, 2010

Do something now, before it’s too late.   The mantra of climate science™ and the IPCC.  To believe that we must act now, there are several leaps of faith one must accept.

Besides the basic and obvious physics, you first have to believe that CO2 causes a positive feedback in the atmosphere and therefore serious warming.  All by a minuscule changes in trace CO2 levels.  The feedback is a difficult and faithful leap when there is little ‘data’ to back it up.

The second leap you must undertake is that which says warming is bad.   Certainly there are plenty of stories about warmer weather which sound scary, but in general, warm weather is more pleasant and more livable.  Things grow in warm weather and die off in cold.  More warm, more things will live, biodiversity will expand, famland will expand.  Of course to assume that CO2 will cause these pleasant effects to happen requires the first leap of faith.  But assuming that several degrees C will cause the massive problems predicted is very very much a leap of faith.

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Notice: Global warming and Climate Change Canceled

Posted by Jeff Id on September 17, 2010

Global warming is now canceled.  I thought global warming was already canceled in favor of climate change, but that is canceled too now.  Lets hope the administration remembers to notify the IPCC, AR5 needs time  to mitigate the language.   The unsuspecting authors may have already reached a language tipping point forcing adaptation rather than mitigation.

Now Holdren science and technology advisor to the White House of the United States Dictators for the World have concluded that the proper phrase is — Global Climate Disruption.

Update your notebooks.

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Move Along Folks

Posted by Jeff Id on September 16, 2010

Steve McIntyre got an answer as to who chose the papers to review for the Oxburgh report — Turns out it was Trevor Davies.

He’s got a gorgeous quote up from Oxburgh himself trying to explain that the small detail of which papers needed to be reivewed as representitive of UEA work slipped his otherwise razor sharp attention.

Q – Right. Can you tell us how did you choose the 11 publications?
Ox- We didn’t choose the 11 publications. They were basically what… We needed something that would be provide a pretty good introduction to work of the unit as it had evolved over the years. The publications were suggested to us came via the university and by the royal society, I believe. We feel ..let me just emphasize..they were just a start… because all of us were novices in this area, we all felt that they were a very good introduction – we moved on. We looked at other publications… we asked for raw materials, things of that kind. The press made quite a meal out of the choice of publications. For anyone on the panel, this all seems over the top. It didn’t have that significance.
Q – there are two things that arise out of that. It was a small unit. Are you saying that Jones, the subject of the investigation, chose the papers that were to be investigated… and that it wasn’t the panel or royal Society?
Ox – No suggestion Jones chose them,
Q – Where did they come from?
Ox- I believe they came … I suspect that that the […] involved was Professor Liss who was acting head of the unit who’d been brought in from outside the unit…he’s been an chemical oceanographer who is broadly interested in area. he in consultation with people with royal society and maybe others outside the unit who had some familiarity.
Q -So the list did not come from the unit – you’Re absolutely categorical ?
Ox – Well I cant
Q – So the list did not come from CRU?
Ox – I can’t prove a negative. There’s absolutely no indication that it did.
Q – Your publicity said that it came from royal society. The Panel given list before royal society asked.
Ox – I… Not as far as I know. You Might be right but I don’t believe so. No certainly I don’t think that can be true.

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The Power of a Calculator

Posted by Jeff Id on September 15, 2010

Meadow Lake wind farm is located along I-65 in  Indiana.  This weekend, while driving to and from a tradeshow, I had the pleasure of seeing the windfarm first hand.  The turbines are huge and spread literally to the horizon  from the roadway, actually they were very impressive looking from the car as the sun set.

Click for large size. --This image really doesn't do justice to the huge expanse of the windfarm. The poles on these windmills are so large that they exceed one lane while being towed by truck to the farm - they are huge things. Living near I-80, I can attest that the new construction of this field is vigorous.

On the way out, one or two of the windmills were turning the rest were stationary, on the return they were 80 percent turning.  Now I don’t mind windmills really, but they don’t make much sense to me.  As with all green energy I’ve come across, the generation capacity is exaggerated in this field as are the low costs, but the problem with wind generation is that the wind isn’t always blowing.

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Bishop Hill Review of Reviews

Posted by Jeff Id on September 14, 2010

I strongly recommend that interested people read this paper by Andrew Montford, it’s really a well done review of the reviews of climategate.  Follow the first link below to the pdf.

————-

Andrew Montford’s review of the Climategate Inquiries is released today and is online here.

More discussion at CA Climategate Inquiries


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Pots and Kettles – Follow the money

Posted by Jeff Id on September 13, 2010

Bob Ward (Andrew Montford’s recent nemesis), has written a piece titled – Why ExxonMobil must be taken to task over climate denial funding.  Before we get into that, his recent review of Andrew Montford’s The Hockey Stick Illusion was incredibly biased, missed the technical meaning of nearly the whole thing and bordered so much on libel he was forced to change it.  The purpose of pointing this is to show the Taminoesque personality we’re dealing with and the fact that, intellectually,  Bob is perfectly comfortable with publishing pro-AGW climate disinformation.

In this case, Bob Ward goes after Exxon for funding conservative groups accused of publishing, you guessed it,  disinformation on climate. I hate to break it to him, but I’ve seen a lot more disinformation from main stream climate science® than I have from any conservative group.  Hockeysticks, melting Antarctic, melting Himalayas, melting sea ice, drought, ridiculously exaggerated sea level rise, expanding hurricanes, shrinking fish, sheep, birds and plants (no I’m not kidding on the last four).

So what Bob Ward is apparently saying, is that it’s ok to fund hockeystic temp curves which have no more relationship to temperature than a kid with a crayon, but not to fund those who point out the errors.  Clear now?

Well today, Barry Woods an anonymous reader (unless they want credit), pointed out that apparently Exxon funds are sent to— Bob Ward’s acceptable disinformation on climate.

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Judith Curry’s New Blog

Posted by Jeff Id on September 10, 2010

It looks like Dr. Judith Curry has decided to start down the road of climate blogging.  This should be an interesting experience and I’m glad that someone else in climate science is willing to address concerns of the public in  a direct fashion.

Check it out and welcome Dr. Curry to the crowd.

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Oxymorons

Posted by Jeff Id on September 10, 2010

Again there isn’t much time for blogging today, but in a strange change of circumstance, China, the regionally capitalist country which saved us all from Copenhagen, the same country which is building a coal plant every two weeks, is now calling for international cooperation on climate change.  In recent weeks we’ve seen local shutdowns of powerplants in China, in an alleged effort to reduce impact on climate.

Today, China is being congratulated for it’s leadership role in climate.   Of course, like all politicians, while shaking hands, you have to watch the other hand.

Contrast this:

China calls for int’l cooperation in tackling climate change

Figueres applauded China’s efforts in tackling climate change, and spoke highly of the country’s constructive role in the international negotiation process.

with:

This

The People’s Republic of China is the largest consumer of coal in the world,[1]

and

China’s coal mining industry is the deadliest in the world and has the world’s worst safety record[5]

Capitalism is only an east coast sideshow there still.  The coal mines are state run.  Look at what happens to socialism when personal property ownership is allowed.

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Government at Work

Posted by Jeff Id on September 10, 2010

I love space exploration.  I like the idea that money is spent on it, that people who do it are smart but just how many government employees are required to move a space shuttle?

I wonder what it looks like when SpaceX moves a rocket?

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Are Deep Oil Rigs Safer

Posted by Jeff Id on September 9, 2010

Microbes ate BP oil deep-water plume: study


By Deborah Zabarenko, Environment CorrespondentPosted 2010/08/24 at 3:37 pm EDT

WASHINGTON, Aug. 24, 2010 (Reuters) — A Manhattan-sized plume of oil spewed deep into the Gulf of Mexico by BP’s broken Macondo well has been consumed by a newly discovered fast-eating species of microbes, scientists reported on Tuesday.

The microbes survive in cold deep water by seeking out leaking oil from natural leaks.

The micro-organisms were apparently stimulated by the massive oil spill that began in April, and they degraded the hydrocarbons so efficiently that the plume is now undetectable, said Terry Hazen of Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory.

These so-called proteobacteria — Hazen calls them “bugs” — have adapted to the cold deep water where the big BP plume was observed and are able to biodegrade hydrocarbons much more quickly than expected, without significantly depleting oxygen as most known oil-depleting bacteria do.

Even I called this one a disaster, looks like I’m wrong again.  The biggest oil spill in history, and it’s gone.

H/T Brian H

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UN plans expanding influence on world agenda

Posted by Jeff Id on September 9, 2010

Fox News is reporting on a UN meeting between top UN officials to expand their role in global government.  I’ve skimmed the documents which do make reference to the sovereignty of countries as problematic, the widespread goals of wealth redistribution and several sections on improved ability for the UN to direct enforcement, including military.

After a year of humiliating setbacks, United Nations Secretary General Ban ki-Moon and about 60 of his top lieutenants — the top brass of the entire U.N. system — spent their Labor Day weekend at a remote Austrian Alpine retreat, discussing ways to put their sprawling organization in charge of the world’s agenda.

Details concerning the two-day, closed-door sessions in the comfortable village of Alpbach were closely guarded. Nonetheless, position papers for the meeting obtained by Fox News indicate that the topics included:  (link above)

The complete documents are here austria_retreat_papers[1]

It is a power and control document with all the typical prayers to the gods of doom, i.e. water, food, health, poverty and climate change.  In discussing what needs to be done to improve their results they work on methods to spread influence across national borders and around governments.

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Faster than infinity

Posted by Jeff Id on September 8, 2010

Ok, so this post is not about climate at all, I’m not sure why I’m writing it except that the concepts are fun, it’s controversial amongst those who haven’t spent their lives in science, and it’s well known.

You can’t travel at the speed of light.  I’m not saying that other things can’t because the structure of our universe dictates that some things MUST travel at the speed of light.   But objects made of clumped energy (matter) and YOU cannot travel at the speed of light.

The concept is disastrously confusing because of the way it is worded. I’ve spent a lot of time at this blog trying to make science simpler so the public can get what is being done.  When relativity is discussed in science classes, people ask things like – why not, is there a wall. I know some very smart people who have gone as far as denying the effect exists, simply on the basis that it sounds impossible.  Physicists answer by equation in every class I’ve ever taken.  They say, naw your mass increases so you can’t accelerate.

While that is completely true, what is missing in that answer is the perspective of the person trying to accelerate. From earth’s perspective if you are zooming away at 1 km/hr slower than the speed of light, you can accelerate faster and faster at a thousand g’s for a billion years and will never reach or cross the speed of light.   From your own perspective (visual distortions ignored), Earth starts out receding at 1km/hr.  Light inside the ship seems the same as always.  If you measure the distance to a star and it’s going to take 5 years to get there, you can just accelerate and cut the time to 2.5.   It takes no more effort to double your perceived speed than it would if you were on the surface of the Earth.  Odd things happen while you’re doing it, like the distance to the star shortens instead of the expected result, but you get to keep on accelerating all you want.

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Obama’s Classmate

Posted by Jeff Id on September 8, 2010

This article was independently confirmed to have come from Obama’s classmate.  This is exactly how I see Obama’s and Democrat party plans for America’s future.  Why Democrat voters can’t see the result from other countries experiences is beyond me.  Anyway, I probably won’t comment much in the thread – no time today but I’d like to hear why democrats think this is a great plan.

============================

OBAMA’S COLLEGE CLASSMATE SPEAKS OUT

By Wayne Allyn Root, July 6th, 2010

Barack Obama is no fool. He is not incompetent. To the contrary, he is
brilliant. He knows exactly what he’s doing. He is purposely overwhelming
the   U.S.  economy to create systemic failure, economic crisis and social
chaos — thereby destroying capitalism and our country from within.

aricle is here

True per snopes!
http://www.snopes.com/politics/soapbox/overwhelm.asp

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Hannity on Green Swindle

Posted by Jeff Id on September 8, 2010

A link from the Cato institute which in my opinion sums climate science® today very well.  It discusses the politics behind the green movement primarily but with some context behind the more obvious exaggerations of main stream climate science® and the IPCC.

The green swindle.

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Belief in Evidence or Evidence of Belief

Posted by Jeff Id on September 7, 2010

A note to climate science.

Evidence drives science opinion toward truth. Evidence doesn’t seek truth, evidence is truth and the scientist is ever beholden to the evidence. It all gets confused when humans are involved. We all grasp that opinion is a form of understanding which can be thought of as an interpretation of evidence.  Scientific opinion is no different and is complicated and obscured by an amalgam of emotion, experience and the data in front of you. Opinion can therefore be corrupted by all types of confounding factors and it is a constant war for a scientist who wishes to maintain integrity. Opinions are sometimes sneaky, creeping up on you where all the evidence points to what you believe. When you are later wrong, sometimes it’s embarrassing.

In soft science, you are the one who judges correctness. Soft science being that which are complex enough or new enough that all factors aren’t known. Examples are psychology, some forms of biological and biochemical sciences, philosophy and our favorite whipping boy, climatology.

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