SPPI report on Illinois Climate Change
Posted by Jeff Id on October 5, 2010
Bob Fergusen has forwarded me a report on climate change in Illinois ,which is of course, where I live.
Now Illinois is a liberal state, which means that we have a large number of people who spend a great deal of time thinking of ways to commit industrial suicide by government. This report prepared by SPPI, lays out some of the truth of the weather in Illinois and the benefit of cutting emissions completely state wide.
In this report, we provide a review of Illinois’ climate history and show that there is little observational evidence of unusual long-term climate changes taking place that could be linked to anthropogenic “global warming”—despite the frequent prognostications to the contrary, often accompanied by doom and gloom scenarios.
Instead of rising temperatures, the trend in the state’s annual average temperature history has been near zero for more than a century. Instead of an increasing frequency of drought, the state’s moisture conditions have improved over the long run. Instead of failing crops, the state’s agricultural yields have been increasing. Instead of worsening impacts from heat waves, the state’s population has become less sensitive to extreme high temperature events. Air pollution from ozone is declining. The trend towards greater tornado occurrences is explained by improvements in storm detection rather than in real changes in the number of storms. Vector-borne disease outbreaks are more a matter of extant climate and social conditions than climate change. And the change in the water levels of the Great Lakes is more strongly tied into natural variability than anthropogenic climate change.
Along with the observed climate history of Illinois, we analyze what the future impacts on the climate will be if Illinois ceased all of its greenhouse gas emissions, now and forever. What we find is eye-opening. Even a complete cessation of greenhouse emissions from Illinois will only slow the climate model projected future rate of global warming by about seven thousandths (≈0.007) of a ºC per century. The impact of sea level will be an equally meager four hundredths of an inch. These changes are scientifically and realistically meaningless.
What’s worse, is that greenhouse gas emissions are increasing so rapidly in developing countries, that new emissions from China alone will completely subsume the entirely of Illinois’ hypothetical emissions cessation in only about four months time! Clearly, any plan merely calling for reductions in greenhouse gas emissions will fare even poorer. There is simply no climatic gain to be had from emissions reductions in Illinois.
The report has some interesting details including a statewide declining temp this century (I haven’t verified), and ends with this comment which I happen to agree with.
And all this economic hardship—in the midst of a recession—would come with absolutely no detectable impact on the course of future climate. This is the epitome of an all pain and no gain scenario.