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Posted by Jeff Id on December 6, 2011
One of the rare privileges of being a ‘technical’ climate blogger is that I am sometimes aware of what is coming.
There are some good people on the inside of the IPCC and we should all be thankful for those who put the mess in context. My suggestion is – read this post carefully.
kim said
At the risk of stating the obvious, (who me?), the reason the Soon and Baliunas story has the legs of a millipede is that they had the correct story of natural factors predominating in climate change, and the havoc wreaked on those two was the havoc wreaked on all of us.
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AGW_Skeptic said
This is a very telling email – 3234.txt
From Richard Alley to Ed Cook?
http://www.ecowho.com/foia.php?file=3234.txt&search=divergence
“Unless the “divergence problem” can be confidently ascribed to some cause that
was not active a millennium ago, then the comparison between tree rings from
a millennium ago and instrumental records from the last decades does not seem
to be justified, and the confidence level in the anomalous nature of the recent
warmth is lowered. This is further complicated by the possible small influence
of CO2 fertilization.”
“I was just
looking at some of the recent Mann et al. papers, and at the
Osborn and Briffa paper from this year. In that one, as nearly as I can tell,
there are 14 long records, of which 2 extend to 2000, 8 end in the early to
mid 1990s, 1 in the early to mid 1980s, 2 in the early to mid 1970s, and one
in the late 1940s. That looks to be a pretty small data set by the time you
get into the strongest part of the instrumental warming. If some of the
records, or some other records such as Rosanne’s new ones, show “divergence”,
then I believe it casts doubt on the use of joined tree-ring/instrumental
records, and I don’t believe that I have yet heard why this interpretation is
wrong.”
“But, I think you
have a problem coming, that it involves the IPCC and particularly chapter
6 and paleo generally, that I really should let
Susan know what is going on (if you’ve seen all the increasingly publicly
disseminated emails, you know the story).”