the Air Vent

Because the world needs another opinion

Open Review of the ZOD IPCC Paleoclimate Chapter

Posted by Jeff Id on December 7, 2011

What you all have been waiting for.  The IPCC Paleoclimate Zero Order Draft for on line public review.

The excitement never ends.



The paper slid under the door crack.  How these things happen, I don’t know — but they do.

28 Responses to “Open Review of the ZOD IPCC Paleoclimate Chapter”

  1. Randy said

    “How these things happen – I don’t know.”

    She falls down a well, her eyes go cross. She gets kicked by a mule. They go back. I don’t know!

    A little xmas vacation reference. Thanks for the file.

  2. The UN’s agenda – as reflected in the international list of authors on the first page – reminded me of a quote by the late Dr. Crichton Michael:

    “Historically, the claim of consensus has been the first refuge of scoundrels; it is a way to avoid debate by claiming that the matter is already settled.”

    The validity of scientific conclusions has absolutely nothing to do with the geographic distribution of those making the observations and/or performing the measurements. A simple fact that is beyond Big Brothers comprehension!

  3. RomanM said

    A couple of days ago, I ran across this item regarding one of the two lead authors, Valérie Masson-Delmotte at the Climate of the Past journal.

    I think that it might be a positive indicator for some possible honesty in the Paleo Chapter.

  4. Hank McCard said

    I’m unable to access your hyperlink. The response says “… the link that you requested is currently un available.”

  5. Hank McCard said

    RE: My last meesage, the response reads: “The file you are trying to access is temporarily unavailable. Please try again later.”

  6. ianl8888 said

    Same response as Hank McCard above

    I do hope this is due to Megaupload’s limitations (well known) and not a belated censorship

  7. Ruhroh said

    Even with Jeff in ‘blog retirement’, it remains important to check here frequently for the latest stuff.

  8. Jeff Id said

    #7 I’m a lousy quitter.


    the link is working for me still. You have to wait for the countdown.

  9. ianl8888 said

    Re the Megaupload link: successful now, so it was indeed the well-known traffic limitation in Megaupload

    For those interested, my suggestion is to download the file as quickly as possible, as Megaupload is also well known for removing files if someone complains about provenance

  10. Ibrahim said

    Mr. Mann is still in there 🙂
    Should be fun.

  11. DaveJR said

    50 • New multi-proxy based statistical reconstructions have been developed to estimate hemispheric and
    51 global temperature variations during the last centuries/millennia.Since AR4, larger amplitudes of
    52 variations have been documented between the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA) and Little Ice Age
    53 (LIA). Comparison of the relative warmth of the Medieval and modern periods is still problematic due to
    54 considerable uncertainty, both quantified and unquantified. The available evidence provides medium
    55 confidence that the last 50 years were, on average, warmer than the Medieval Climate Anomaly for the
    56 Northern Hemisphere and perhaps global scales. Evidence for modern warming is more extensive
    57 seasonally and geographically than the evidence for Medieval warmth.

    Seems reasonable. IIRC, medium confidence is about 50/50. The last sentence seems a little suspect given the data available between then and now.

  12. DaveJR said

    I just realised it says “Do not cite, quote or distribute”. Remove the above if it’s going to be a problem.

  13. If you find the Mega system annoying (I do) I’ve put a copy here..

  14. #13 OK but I missed the warning that DaveJR noticed. I’ll have to take it down until that is clarified.

  15. Jeff Id said


    I’m sure they would love the publicity from a ‘do not cite’ lawsuit. The annoyance is worth the legality though.

  16. Ripper said

    “The job of an IPCC reviewer at the ZOD stage is to make positive
    suggestions to help the Strawman along and not to be too critical.”

    As I read it the “strawman” in this case is tropical troposphere warming.

  17. Ian said

    If you access the ZOD, SOD, etc. on the IPCC website for prior versions (4AR, TAR, etc.), the same warning is appended (still) to the document.

  18. Ruhroh said

    Hey Ripper, that was a cool find.
    Following your lead, this seemed to be a pretty cool search,
    of how they would push Fu et al. and steamroll the opposition.
    Nice timeline;


  19. Anonymous said

    Echoing what I said at WUWT:
    I couldn’t find any mention of GCRs. Impact of the Sun appears to be described strictly in terms of orbits and TSI variation.

    Some interesting things that did make it in:
    5-52, lines 53-55:

    Interestingly the mean annual changes in the total solar radiation received between a glacial and an interglacial period is only about 0.2–0.3 W m–2 emphasising the non-linearity of the climate response (see Figure [xy]).

    5-53, lines 2-3:

    The average change of TSI over an 11-year cycle is about 0.1% corresponding to about 1.4 W m–2.

    5-53, lines 20-23:

    Based on a statistical analysis of the past 10,000 years of solar activity it is likely that the current about 60 year long relatively constant period of high activity comes to an end within the next 1–2 solar cycles (10–20 years) and may provide us some of the missing information of how much lower TSI and SSI have been during a grand minimum such as the Maunder minimum.

  20. Bill Illis said

    Just more and more obsession with CO2. It is clear that is all we are going to get with the IPCC.

    Thanks for draft.

  21. No surprise but Soon and Baliunas 2003 and Loehle 2007 are not cited. Not read it yet otherwise.

  22. Kenneth Fritsch said

    West Antarctic temperature also displays a warming trend of about 0.1°C per decade over the same
    49 time period (Steig et al., 2009; [Reference needed: O’Donnell et al., ?]).

  23. Jeff Id said


    Interesting. This is what we found.

    For West Antarctica, the RLS reconstruction demonstrates a statistically significant trend of 0.10 +/- 0.09 (approximately half that reported by S09) while the E-W reconstruction shows a trend of 0.06 +/- 0.07.

    It has been a while since I looked back but I hadn’t considered that they would include O10.

  24. Thanks, Roman M, for posting the link to the statement that Ms. Valérie Masson-Delmotte, Ediitor of Climate Past, will abide by the “Conflict of Interest policy of IPCC” in seeking to avoid conflict of interest “with her current task as a Coordinating Lead Author of Chapter 5 of Working Group 1 of the IPCC 5th Assessment Report (AR5).”

    Regretfully, credibility in world leaders and in the UN’s IPCC will not be so easily restored while both groups continue promoting the same flawed propaganda that was exposed by Climategate emails and analysis of Al Gore’s “Truth.”

  25. StuartR said

    “Do not cite, quote or distribute”

    If the IPCC is so famously out in pirate radio waters, away from the reach of all Government FOI’s, I wonder whose jurisdiction is covered by that warning?

  26. Kan said

    StuartR – That is a very good question.

  27. Tom in Austin said

    52. “….Medieval Climate Anomaly(MCA)”? Is this the MWP tagged with a new assumption or is this common? Pardon the ignorance.

  28. PaulM said

    Tom, yes, the Ministry of Truth have decided that the word ‘warm’ cannot be allowed in association with medieval times, so its name has been changed.
    Or maybe I’m wrong, maybe it has always been called MCA and those of us who thought it used to be called MWP have faulty memories.

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