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Posted by Jeff Id on June 29, 2014
Antarctic sea ice established a pretty dramatic spike in ice area anomaly apparently continuing its recent upward trend in rather pointed fashion.
![seaice.anomaly.antarctic[1]](https://noconsensus.files.wordpress.com/2014/06/seaice-anomaly-antarctic11.png)
Global sea ice continues above average for the year:
![global.daily.ice.area.withtrend[1]](https://noconsensus.files.wordpress.com/2014/06/global-daily-ice-area-withtrend1.jpg)
Arctic ice is still holding in its lower level since 2007:
![seaice.anomaly.arctic[1]](https://noconsensus.files.wordpress.com/2014/06/seaice-anomaly-arctic1.png)
Please refrain from asserting nefarious intent for posting the data. It is interesting to all of us after all.
M Simon said
Please refrain from asserting nefarious intent for posting the data. It is interesting to all of us after all.
Good to know there is no secret code.
Jeff Id said
None that I know of anyway.
The Great Satan's Ghost said
“nefarious”
doesn’t get used enough
steveta_uk said
Several news reports out today about the threat to emperor penguins due to the changes in sea ice.
But the reports acknowlegde that sea ice is currently as an all-time high. Apparently, any change, whether up or down, in the distance to the sea from the colonies, will result in a 20% loss of penguins by 2070.
Ain’t modelling marvelous?
e.g. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-28089988
HaroldW said
The study used projections from the CMIP3 set of climate models. The models of AR4 whose mean predicted a rapid Antarctic sea ice decline in (austral) winter, around -50,000 km^2/year. (Figure 10-13.) The authors list some of the performance issues of these models in their supplemental information, see pp. 15 et seq. One of the models is described as producing “nearly perpetual ice cover out to almost 40°S.”
After reading those pages, I have got no idea how one is expected to have any confidence in any result generated in this manner. Yet, according to the BBC article cited above, the authors apparently call for penguins to be declared endangered on this “evidence”.
Paul Matthews said
See this one
http://www.independent.co.uk/environment/climate-change/emperor-penguins-will-be-wiped-out-by-end-of-the-century-due-to-melting-sea-ice-9571495.html
“Global warming is melting sea ice so fast that more than half of Antarctica’s population of Emperor penguins are set to be wiped out by the end of the century, according to alarming new research saying they should be listed as an endangered species.”
HaroldW said
Although the daily Antarctic sea ice area anomaly has now fallen back below 2 million sq km, I noticed this article on the subject. [I’ve got no idea how the article arrived at its figure of 1.312 million sq km “above its normal range”. That seems to be neither the ice area anomaly nor the ice extent anomaly, currently around 1.5 million sq km.]
The explanation?
I don’t understand journalism at all. I mean, does the writer think that scientists were surprised to find that salt water is more dense than fresh water? What should have been discussed is that prior predictions were for a rapid drop in Antarctic sea ice, and (assuming the mechanism mentioned is the primary cause) why it was underestimated or overlooked.
HaroldW said
The Antarctic sea ice area anomaly has gone sharply south in the past week, being now +1.170 million sq km according to the The Cryosphere Today.
Brian H said
Steve;
In later breaking news, it turns out the emperors are well used to this variation, and just move to better quarters.