Something New Under the Sun
Posted by Jeff Id on March 9, 2015
Michael Mann and Jeff Id agree on something. No really, we do. I’m rather surprised as you can imagine. I haven’t changed a bit but methinks Micheal Mann is a budding skeptic. here.
Our conclusion that natural cooling in the Pacific is a principal contributor to the recent slowdown in large-scale warming is consistent with some other recent studies, including a study I commented on previously showing that stronger-than-normal winds in the tropical Pacific during the past decade have lead to increased upwelling of cold deep water in the eastern equatorial Pacific. –– Real Climate
Two hundred fifty trillion is 2.5 x10^14 J/second. If we have a heat capacity of 5.6×10^24 J/K we get 2.24×10^
1110 seconds until the ocean were warmed one degree. That corresponds to 710 years of heating to increase the ocean volumetric temperature by one degree which is still somewhere around zero C average temperature. In other words, climate progresses unrealistic worst possible case doom scenario’s are not sufficient to significantly affect oceanic heat content. — Jeff Id
Oddly enough, in recognizing the mixing of oceans, Real Climate may have just acknowledged that we can actually stuff 100% of global warming energy into the ocean for a millennia with literally zero consequence. Of course the same peak-oil folks can’t imagine how we would have carbon for even another 200 years but that is another story. By the second law of thermodynamics, when the heat is mixed into a 2C-ish body of water, it cannot be released in a manner which warms the greater temperature atmosphere of the Earth. The heat is functionally lost in terms of global warming. It literally cannot come back in droves or we need to rewrite physics.
Summary for reporters, all of physics — big redo.
In the linked Air Vent post, the main point is below (my bold for emphasis):
The sensitivity atmospheric temperature to CO2 from measured data, is therefore much lower than was predicted and that includes the argo data. Alternatively rather than a CO2 sensitivity misjudgement, all that heat that Dr. Trenberth is famously looking for, very well could be sitting in the deep ocean making too little impact over 100 years to actually measure and all it would take is a tiny bit more (or less) oceanic intermixing than models predict for that huge heatsink to be the true source of measured climate change. It could potentially have overwhelmed the CO2 effect without our knowing.
In their new paper, Mann claims that the globally powerful IPCC climate model trends were inverted from a tiny change in wind mixing in the pacific. Sounds like a pretty good copy of me!
Now make no mistake, this is heat mixed into the much colder ocean water AGAINST climate model prediction. Shockingly, even after this situation, Real Climate STILL doesn’t feel any pressure from simple things like the “laws of physics” or “Basic Thermodynamics”. With the quote below as the final straw, I have no idea how a scientist would wish to be associated with the Real Climate site. Anyway, the last word should go to them and speaks for itself I think.
Given the pattern of past historical variation, this trend will likely reverse with internal variability, instead adding to anthropogenic warming in the coming decades.