the Air Vent

Because the world needs another opinion

Climate Science Industry — Negotiation

Posted by Jeff Id on June 7, 2016

I don’t have much time as the company continues to grow.  This article is about the fact that the field called Climate Science has changed in a manner which is not openly recognized by those who have not been immersed in the papers.  Global warming is real, but it is absolutely not dangerous.   It is not a problem, and there is no evidence that it will be anytime in the foreseeable future.  Yes I’m that tired of it, but there is an interesting aspect to the changes in the climate discussion.

I’m tired of the climate BLOG pedantary. That’s what the Sci3nc3 discussion has turned into.   It is hard to be concerned with the nonsensical details of too many government-funded climate doom papers.  I likely am not going to live long enough to see Gavin Schmidt et whomever to be internationally recognized as serial climate exaggerators, and were I to live for those several decades, the now overly obvious proof of such would not bring me greater happiness.  These morons will continue to scream at the top of their lungs no matter which observation proves their inaccuracy or more succinctly — confederation.  ——Queue international conspiracy paper in a psychology journal…

The world of business is far quicker to resolution and it picks winners with rather colder equations than present day government science.  Business is far from easy, despite the popular imagination.  It’s the modern idea that business is something given rather than earned.  That it is friends or gifts or whatever that makes sales, profit margins or results.  Nothing could be farther from the truth, but the concept that our “Bernie” might potentially be someone who could run something as grandiose as a hotdog stand, is beyond reason.  Not that it matters what I write, after all, liberals know that I’m no Bernie.

I’m trying to be interested as to whether north pole sea ice will re-continue to melt, or whether the atmosphere will show enough warming for any reasonable person to see it as a problem.   It is really a hard sell in comparison to things like the economy, which actually feed us, clothe us, warm us, heal us, etc.. (well used to heal us, now it is the government)  Our public has decided to shut down a huge fraction of our power grid this summer in the US.  Maybe not enough to see brownouts, but quite possibly enough.  We shall see.  Certainly if warmists are right, we have SIMULTENEOUS unprecedented AIR-CONDITIONING doom!, but again —- whatever.  I’m going to buy 4 generators that burn coal, wood or dung in them 24/7 so that I can remain comfortable.

Then there are the Losers in their loser suits, telling us how to be more like them, and using their lawsuits to make it happen.  All in the name of freedom.   Sounds incredibly familiar and is a hallmark distinguishing attribute of deployed socialism, although it is most often discussed in opposite terms.

Our company is constructing a new building and I’m not sure that it is a good idea before the election.   It is a tiny thing though, not even a few acres, but I learned last week that we are NOT allowed to use Light Switches, we must use motion sensors.  It’s a good thing I’m not a lighting expert who built energy efficient lighting or I would explain to the morons with the laws how little difference that their ordinances make or how inconvenient we find them but again, we should bow to the Schmidt’s and Mann’s of the world who hold the true knowledge.

Doom and disaster of the sandwich board folk aside, I simply don’t have any excitement about our atmosphere.  Still love a good storm.  Still enjoy the SAME weather I had as a kid, despite the imaginations of the new generation of emotionally educated Illuminati.  It would actually be nice to have an interesting bit of science to bite on but “cover up the model problem” seems to be the idea in climate science these days.  Meh..  It simply isn’t interesting to be continually arguing with climatologists when the side you are arguing against is nothing but paid shills.

Well, unfortunately for me, I’m an engineer and an entrepreneur and I suppose even a reluctant businessman.  In other words, pure evil, or for the more pragmatic, a producer of services.  One thing I recognize in this world is a negotiation, and these people are not scientists at this point, on the whole they don’t really understand yet that they are not scientists anymore, but in a transition phase.  They have entered a pre-negotiated settlement between models and observation.

This is not a scientific negotiation.

Some in the climate science industry have understood.  Some are in the process of reducing model trends, and increasing observed temperature trends. All the while emphasizing uncertainty.  In climate science, and often in business, uncertainty is the moderating unknown factor.   Uncertainty is the heralded helper.  The cover for incoming reason and the industries only remaining protection from common sense. Barrages of questions as to why the ice caps have not melted, and extreme weather has not increased have only uncertainty as an answer.  Yet the pragmatic among us must realize that after decades of extreme doom climate science, we have been surprisingly left ONLY with — uncertainty.

This is a business transaction, and their side has the money, the power, the influence.  The skeptics have the science which is not an insignificant card.

Keep in mind, in business, the middle ground has nothing to do with the correct ground.  It has to do with value and result, and eventual cash in the negotiating players pockets.

We just have to be smart enough to recognize when the negotiations begin.  They are coming whether either side likes it or not.  What is worse is that no matter the outcome, the lawyers will without doubt win this transaction. The governments of the world literally cannot lose — they can only gain more or less.  The tobacco industry has proven quite well how hard it is to kill a multi-hundred billion dollar industry and the negative effects of climate science industry are far less personal.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

29 Responses to “Climate Science Industry — Negotiation”

  1. Phil Brisley said

    I saw your comment praising McIntrye over at CA and decided to check in here. Great post Jeff, good to see you back.

    The government of Ontario is releasing its climate action plan today, should be fun as they are typically on board with the AGW “scare” narrative. Like most people they have no idea what the actual sceptic argument is about. The AGW mechanism is well understood, the underlying physics are not in dispute.

    The issue, of course, is the phenomenon’s magnitude. To what extent the ACO2 molecule’s IR resonance increases temperature so as to have an impact on climate is unknown. There are estimates, so what? Observations support low sensitivity. Clearly, the concept has been oversold.

    I think you’re right, many of us won’t be around to see this “issue” resolved. If we are to believe the ice core reconstructions, we could be many decades, even a century or two, away from the warming peak matching that of the Medieval Warm Period. So the these “sky is falling” types can continue with their message…hopefully everyone will get tired of their nonsense and AGW will find its place along with all the other “scares”.

    As always, we live in interesting times.

  2. The climate issue is used to centralize power and to waste tax payer dollars. The inevitable result is loss of freedom to install the plumbing you want and the light switch you want.

    Bureaucratic tyranny through a myriad of regulations is getting to be a serious problem in the USA but you can look to Europe to see how bad it can get. The EU is doomed to collapse simply because it stripped power from institutions that have been operating for centuries. The ship is sinking so should one exit the EU now or wait until it goes down?

    The British seem to have had enough already. They have recognized that the EU is an over-centralized bureaucracy dedicated to rule making that destroys freedom and creativity. That accounts for the dismal economic performance of the Eurozone.

    IMHO the UK would do well to get out now rather than wait for the economic collapse that is inevitable absent major reforms. The BREXIT vote would not be taking place if the EU had something on the lines of the 10th amendment to the US Constitution that states:
    “The powers not delegated to the United States by the Constitution, nor prohibited by it to the States, are reserved to the States respectively, or to the people.”

    The USA is in similar peril given our failure to respect the 10th amendment as evidenced by the continued usurpation of powers by the federal government.

    I wonder what will happen when Texas holds a TEXIT referendum.

    The trouble with “Super States” is that they depend on a “One Size Fits All” approach.

  3. I just found this link that shows the Dutch are next:
    http://www.express.co.uk/news/world/677994/EU-European-Union-referendum-Holland-Netherlands-Brexit-Nexit

  4. gary23902003 said

    Great post, Jeff! I agree with your sentiments, as I have realized lately the damn thing has run it’s course. It’s OK to be tired of it. I think the world is tired of it. All the sadness and grief over something that, in my assessment, doesn’t exist. Thanks Jeff.

  5. Slywolfe said

    It might be fun designing a motion sensor activator connected to a toggle switch…

  6. Oliver Manuel said

    Congratulations on the success of your company, Jeff. I share your disgust with false government propaganda disguised as “97% consensus science.”

    https://fcpp.org/sites/default/files/documents/Moore%20-%20Positive%20Impact%20of%20Human%20CO2%20Emissions.pdf

    However, I feel a social responsibility to actively oppose false government propaganda that violates the very foundation of democracy: People’s right to have valid information on which to make decisions.

  7. jferguson said

    Hi Jeff,
    the motion sensor requirement is just the sort of thing which used to drive me nuts when i was still trying to do architecture. We’d go in for permits and have a bunch of this stuff revealed and I would argue that for example it didn’t make sense ot have lighted exit signs in a boiler (I was able to beat that one) but it was typical. I didn;t see myself as an agent of stupidity, I suppose because I could be stupid without help from the government, but the exposure was frequently that i was thought to be incompetent because I couldn’t make this goofy stuff go away.

    I have a lot of stories, but the exit sign in the boiler is pretty typical.

    there was virtually none of this when i started doing this stuff in 1968, then it just kept getting worse.

    good luck and it’s wonderful to hear from you again,

    john

  8. jinghis said

    Yeah I can see the negotiation gambit coming down the pike too. This is the end of the Con when the Artist thinks he is going to walk away with the loot. ‘We all agree there is a problem, it just didn’t turn out to be as bad as we thought, no harm no foul.’

    Nah, we need to throw their butts in Jail, seize all their assets and defund the institutions behind them.

  9. page488 said

    Brilliant post, Jeff!

    One thing that has always fascinated me about the AGW group is their insistence in CO2 as the main climate driver, outside of such long term events as the Milankovitch Cycles and other documented long term cycles. To me, CO2 as the main Climate Driver, is debatable, but I want to spend my time here on other things.

    The assumption that CO2 is the main driver of climate was made many, many years ago because CO2 seemed to be the only atmospheric gas that was variable. The carbon cycle certainly exists, but that doesn’t mean that it is the sole driver of temperature. However, CO2 as the sole driver of temperature has passed into Climate Science as fact.

    When this “fact” was accepted years and years ago, scientists still thought that water was unique to earth, and that the Earth was initially “warmed” by a “blanket” of CO2, long before water arrived – it was the only explanation that made sense at the time. We now know that water is ubiquitous in the universe, and nobody really knows all that much about the early earth. But, those facts haven’t restrained the CAGW groups from accepting the old assumptions, at all.

    The primary assumption lives on despite scientific progress – and is taught.

    Scientific conclusions, in nebulous matters, always tend to lag behind observed fact (once science has defined an area of study.) So, now, we have scientists insisting that AGW is threatening us with “the end” when the past twenty-five years tell us that CO2 must not have the influence originally suspected.

    Facts don’t bother ideologues. These scientists are not going to let go – that’s a given. They, and their attendant industries are making way too much money to quit. Just recently, I saw a program that included Gavin Schmidt and Roy Spencer in which they had the opportunity to debate each other. Schmidt came out first because he refused to share the stage with Spencer and, of course, he declined to debate Spencer later because he considered himself above debating a man that he freely called a “denier.” No one mentioned that Roy Spencer understands and accepts the same scientific facts about CO2 that does Gavin Schmitt. Spencer just thinks, like a lot of us, that adapting is a much smarter way to address the issue than destroying all Western Societies.

    I wish I had the time to write a hundred pages here, but I don’t. I would love to get into clouds, and their effects, and the ocean, which has been harboring heat for millennia.

    I’ll sign off by telling y’all that my college botany book, published in 1969, included the same carbon diagram about AGW that the IPCC has popularized in the press since the 90’s – they didn’t even bother to modernize the stick figures. I’m also not going to get into the fact that there must be something wrong with an environmental movement that dovetails with the solutions to the aspirations of the UN as a one world government.

    Have a great day, everyone!

    Page

  10. Gary said

    Jeff,

    For a change of pace and and engineer’s view you might look at a new book by Adrian Bejan, https://www.kirkusreviews.com/book-reviews/adrian-bejan/the-physics-of-life/. Check out his website too, https://constructal.org/.

    FWIW he points out how Bernie’s schemes will always fail because physics always wins.

    • Jeff Id said

      I couldn’t agree more that the mathematics of evolution are not limited to biology. They extend quite easily to economics and business. I see it in sport team success and quite pervasively in multivariate regression science. Recently, I have been taught a hard lesson about scientific understanding of bulk mathematical properties and it was what really stopped me from blogging for the last several months.

      A truly cathartic and disappointing moment where I finally, with great resistance, recognized that Rob Wilson did not understand his math. It stopped my blog.

  11. Brian said

    Jeff, I feel your pain.

    A few years back we moved into a new space in Champaign on the Research Park that had a LEED requirement since it was located on University property. One motion detector switch on the primary room entrance. You could be working on the opposite side of a room and have the lights shut off while working. This caused a serious problem in our machine shop when a worker was turning a part on the lathe… lights out! Talk about safety and danger. Luckily no one was hurt! We complained and were told: that is the code, that is the green ordinance, it is required for the environment, etc.. What about safety? Deaf ears. We ended up ripping the motion switches out and replacing them with good-ole toggle switches ourselves! Silly me for valuing our employees lives!

    We are expanding into additional space to accommodate growth. I requested more lighting than what we currently have in our present space… we have to rely on a lot of additional task lighting. Again we were told it is a green building with a limit on the allowable light per square meter according to code. Being told that our workers cannot have enough light to execute tasks and be safe is ridiculous. Fortunately we were able to find a way out to meet a power/m2 specification and a new LED system ($$$) could make it. Nickel and dimed.

    Losing half a day arguing this, a half a day fighting that… when all we want to do is make great products that solve problems and make lives better. Tiring but I am not ready to give up.

    • Jeff Id said

      That sounds so familiar. I’ve got and heard so many complaints from fellow businesses.

      The left always imagines it is just a bunch of whining. I wonder what our pro-government extremist next-gen’s will ever listen.

  12. “Having numerically calculated the solar activity variations, the author explaines and predicts the derived climate variability. Most of modern global warming is the result of solar activity variations.”

  13. hunter said

    “negotiation”, or “booty call”? The climate kooks have them selves worked up to the point that civil liberties, civil society, rational investing, rational policy making, fact, truth and integrity all take a back seat to their hysterical demands and ideas. Please don’t completely leave this part of the public square. The fat lady is not yet warming up, much less singing.

  14. Oliver K. Manuel said

    Tensions are mounting here. Next Saturday at 5:30 pm the minister at the La Croix Methodist Church in Cape Girardeau, MO will disrupt his usual schedule of sermons to speak on race relations.

  15. Good to see you back, Jeff.If you have to limit your posts to two a year, at least this one is a winner.

    • Jeff Id said

      Good to hear from you Tom. I hope things are going well for you. You are right that I can’t seem to get any time for the blog. I would love to do a bit of writing though so we shall see.

  16. Tom in St. Johns said

    I’ll second what Tom said above.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s

 
%d bloggers like this: