the Air Vent

Because the world needs another opinion

Obama Wins the Prize or Political Climate Change — Recession Baby!

Posted by Jeff Id on August 4, 2016

Well folks, we have started a new recession.   It look pretty deep this time, rather like 2008.  Maybe not though as reductions in gas price will moderate the problem but it isn’t looking pretty.  Very fast decline in production across a wide variety of markets.

What Id?  Have you lost your mind….   CNN didn’t report that.  Is this another Lewandowsky paper setup?

Well, turns out I don’t need CNN or MSNBC to know what is going on with the economy.   I have another way.  I have the advantage of owning a large enough company which is well distributed across America which provides me the truly awesome opportunity to talk to other businesses leaders.

It could still turn around in which case I will post a different story — god I hope to write that one next week…  but I waited for over a month prior to posting and it does not look good. More to come from our crack network news outlets — after the election of course and then we will have — BREAKING NEWS!!!!


So if you want less cigarettes — tax the hell out of em!  — everyone gets that — totally makes sense.

If you want less guns — tax them to bejesus!  — got that too.

If you want less soda pop — tax it — everyone knows that!

We have the highest business tax in the world and it is primarily taxed at a personal income tax rate.    Yet we mouth the words “we want more jobs” while at the same time support even higher taxes – for business owners.

It is the height of ignorance to be angry at business when jobs move overseas.

It is the height of stupidity to expect them to stay.


Like it or not, Liberals and RINO’s own this one.  They will blame the election, others who are actually producers will recognize that the instability of the business environment in a financially stressed economy is the real issue.

 

 

30 Responses to “Obama Wins the Prize or Political Climate Change — Recession Baby!”

  1. Oliver K. Manuel said

    snip

  2. That is the best (and shortest) first post by OKM I have ever seen. Thanks.

  3. jinghis said

    You are missing the big picture, companies are swapping production with borrowing at extremely low interest rates. Borrowed money is tax free income. The is the big payout time. . . Happy days are here again.

    Is there an emoticon symbol for tears? That is just about all that is left to do.

  4. Wall St Journal-The U.S. labor market in July capped off the best two-month stretch of hiring so far this year despite global turbulence and slower business spending, posing a challenge for the Federal Reserve as it aims to raise interest rates again in coming months without spooking investors.
    Employers added 255,000 jobs last month while wages for private-sector workers matched their strongest annual pace of growth in seven years. More Americans joined the labor force, keeping the jobless rate steady at 4.9%.
    ” Barack Obama’s record, which includes recovery from the 2007-09 recession and the creation of 11 million jobs. “The longest streak of total job growth on record continued in July,” said Jason Furman, Mr. Obama’s chief economist.”
    The US Economy is so huge and diverse that its doesnt mean equal growth in all areas and all industries

    • Oliver K. Manuel said

      There seems to be a disconnect between the news media and reality.

    • Jeff Id said

      I know right, except the numbers they report are not ‘unemployment’.

      http://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data/unemployment-charts

      From a previous post I did in 2012, my suspicion is that we succeeded in giving enough money to non working people that they dropped off the unemployment charts. If you have disability or child support payments that exceed your other available income, you are not considered unemployed. Our true non-working rate is quite a bit higher than reported and not nearly as rosy.

      I would really love to be wrong about this post but Americans have dramatically slowed their buying a wide variety of transportation, utility, recreational and marine vehicles. Many companies have revised their production downward this fall and some have simply closed plants. It looks very deep at the moment so they won’t be able to pretend for long. I actually laughed out loud two weeks ago when they again discussed raising interest rates because the economy was so strong. In 08, the media was invested in making it worse than it was by talking the economy down. This time they can influence buying decisions in the other direction. In addition to cheap gas, perhaps that will help too.

      In this situation, there is a lot of pressure for the incumbent powers to cook the books so I wouldn’t put that past them either. If it turns around, I will admit my error immediately right here but the signal we have in the data is very strong.

    • “The longest streak of total job growth”

      What about percentage?

      Obama terms – .25% and 1.98%

      Clinton – 2.64% and 2.33%

      etc

      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jobs_created_during_U.S._presidential_terms

  5. gallopingcamel said

    In a recent speech Obama stated that Donald Trump keeps demonstrating that he is “unfit for office”.

    What magnificent chutzpah from the only president since WWII who makes Jimmy Carter look good. Given that the folks here are into data and graphs you will surely like this:

    • You may remember the Federal Reserve is independent of the White House and Congress and started their money printing even before Obama took office. And the first time they used it, 1930s and 40s, and relatively speaking compared to the bigger economy now, is smaller than that during the Great depression. ( according to Hoover Institution)

    • Jeff Id said

      The graphs should be enough for anyone to make a decision about the failures of liberal economics. Fake economics is what it is.

      • Jeff Id said

        It is also surprising how far people will go to equivocate the obvious results of these policies. A lot of economics is common sense, that people can reject common sense in favor of demonstrably false ‘beliefs’ always leaves my jaw hanging. Maybe someday I will learn.

  6. gallopingcamel said

    Fourteen years ago I ran for office in North Carolina. One of the policies I recommended was to reduce the rate of corporate tax to zero.
    http://morcombe.net/Senate/Jobs.htm

    While I did not get elected it is encouraging to find that North Carolina has halved its corporate tax rate.

    Back in 2002 the USA was ranked #5 in the world “Index of Economic Freedom”. Fourteen years later, thanks to George Bush and Barack Obama we rank #11.
    http://www.heritage.org/index/

  7. stevefitzpatrick said

    Hi Jeff,
    My business is nearly 100% dependent on capital expenditures by businesses, universities, and (slightly) government funded labs. What we have seen is that businesses in the States cut capital expenditures after the 2008-2009 recession, and that spending has never returned, even while US corporations have returned to good (even record) profitability. Outside the States there was little of no long term impact on capital expenditures, which I suspect at least partly reflects the “deindustrialization” of the US economy; the US parent company does not buy, but overseas operations do. Can you be a little more specific about why you think a recession is already underway in the USA?

    • Jeff Id said

      Steve,

      I agree we never recovered back to 08 levels. The recreation industries have been significant indicators to me of a reduction in available household capital. I often explain to people that Manufacturing in the United States is being taxed a punitive level. The laws are too complex for most people to understand even when they want to figure them out, and they are absolutely too complex for the public to figure out with a short explanation. With my understanding of the rules now, this tax complexity is done intentionally as there are much easier and more transparent ways to collect money, you probably already know this.

      It is interesting that when people understand left wing economists point that taxing cigarettes gives you less cigarettes but the exact same left-wing economists argue that taxing business will give more jobs, they aren’t smart enough to see the contradiction. Manufacturing has nearly vanished from the US in comparison to what we used to do. Exactly what those evil dogmatic conservatives said would happen — did. I am probably preaching to the choir, but it is the Air Vent after all.

      As to your question, I would love to be really specific but hopefully you can understand if I don’t name names or be terribly specific about our business on a climate blog in a world where the powers aren’t just disagreeing, they are ready to prosecute those who can objectively read climate papers. I’ll do what I can but excuse the generalities.

      We sell primarily in North America, but also in several other continents. We have a customer base of just under 1000 active customers who are primarily vehicle and equipment manufacturers. Two months ago we hit another record orders taken number, very common in our history because we are growing at 30+ percent for the last 5 years. Our products are low dollar items which we sell many hundreds of thousands of every month so the volume is fairly high. One month ago, our orders dropped by over 30% – we have had no statistically significant drops in orders since 2008. This happened very suddenly and is not typical of our annual pattern. Hopefully you know a little about me and understand that company data is tracked, plotted and understood to a far greater degree than any climate blog hobby etc…

      So we made a bunch of phone calls to industry leaders. These folk, like yourself, are no slouches, high level company bosses are rarely idiots as you know. Business has a way of evolving them out of the decision process. We had 8 different companies describe sharp slowdowns in ordering. A large company in the $1Billion range didn’t not report a slowdown but their orders are typically taken 6 months in advance and their actual orders from us have reduced slightly (I assume that they are not as attentive to the data). A VERY large recreational company ordered under half of average, they are public, I can’t discuss their info much. Small company work vehicles dropped very significantly with multiple plants skipping an entire month of orders — $20-100 million range companies, not small operations. Utility manufacturers idled an entire plant for July. A half billion boat company dropped orders to 1/2 of normal. These are just examples because each of them orders small dollars from us.

      Oh and the US post office delayed a major project until after the election. —what is that a 3 trillion dollar company?

      Anyway, I probably shouldn’t have written the post but I’m angry that the data isn’t being reported, and the lack of reporting smacks of data manipulation.

      Of course, if orders come in really, really strong this week, I will write a contradictory post and tell everyone to ignore me. Unfortunately for all of us, I get numbers and they are seriously ugly.

      • The US Post office has revenues of $68 billion but losses of $6 billion, so thats most likely why its not spending up.
        As for the nationwide employment data, they do say retail and manufacturing employment is flat, so if you drilled down into more detail and by region you could find the numbers match your business observations

        • Jeff Id said

          “The US Post office has revenues of $68 billion but losses of $6 billion, so thats most likely why its not spending up.” — I have indirect contact with congress on this. My reason is correct, yours is more rational but not correct.

          Also, we don’t do retail, and flat manufacturing levels would be wonderful compared to what we are seeing. We are well distributed across the country and various industries. Something is seriously wrong, but today’s orders came back to this years average — this very young month is still off by 30% though but I’m with you to hope things reverse.

          • Jeff Id said

            Sorry for my response, I’m a little grumpy today. We hear through one of our customers that is big enough to have lobbiests that elected officials have decided to delay a major revamp of certain PO equipment until next year.

          • Martin C said

            Jeff, I just HAVE to ask – are orders still as bad as you said early in August ?

            What’s interesting to me, beyond this post, is the ISM numbers the other day were BELOW 50% . . . And with what you reported in early August, well, is the U.S. going into a big recession now . . ? Would really like your to hear your thoughts . . . Thanks,

            Martin

          • Jeff Id said

            Martin,

            Unfortunately we have mixed data. Total orders rebounded for the most part but it seems to have been driven by a few large customers who are typically less sensitive to sudden fluctuations in end user demand. At the same time, a record number of smaller (but not too small) customers simply didn’t order in August. The order review is a month end process for us and we are installing a new ERP system right now so I’m too busy to write much about it today. I will have more news on why those customers didn’t order in the coming week as our sales team contacts them. I do have several new anecdotal reports from other customers over the past month who have also witnessed the weakness, my guess today is that the answers we get in the coming week won’t be “cheery” but I’m hopeful that it is just a bit of extreme volatility.

          • Jeff Id said

            First reports back indicate several new reports of slow sales.

    • Jeff Id said

      I suppose we could discuss more by email.

  8. Heres the gross job change figures:
    “Gross job gains 7.8 million and gross job losses 6.8 million in the 4th quarter of 2015.’ So I can quite understand those on the downside of those numbers seeing doom and gloom. But itsnt that whats great about the free enterprise system, there are winners and losers rather than being a static no change economy. I remember a local manufacturer who made washing machines , fridges etc but growth in that sector was low or declining so they used their skilled engineers to work on small healthcare related equipment which has been a winner for them, the fridges are made overseas now.

  9. page488 said

    So much for the genius of white progressives; even the smartest of them cannot reason inductively. Or, maybe they can and just assume that the rest of us can’t. Given the state of public education, the latter may very well be true.

  10. Oliver K. Manuel said

    Our tyrannical world government is no longer decaying. It appease to be in free-fall collapse: https://jonrappoport.wordpress.com/2016/08/29/clinton-foundation-key-to-giving-putin-20-of-us-uranium/#comments

  11. Oliver K. Manuel said

    The high social costs of a seemingly minor error in calculations of nuclear “binding energy” are summarized in a paper published yesterday in the International Journal of Advanced Research: http://www.journalijar.com/article/11650/neutron-repulsion–social-costs-from-overlooking-this-power/

    The impact on the human psyche from knowledge that we live only 1 AU from a pulsar is almost beyond human comprehension, as has been knowledge of the creator and sustainer of life throughout recorded history.

  12. The land based data is manipulated by incorrect “homogenization” based on weather stations affected by urban crawl. There is also selective elimination of weather stations that don’t show enough warming. Raw data from some Australian stations in Northern Victoria for example shows no warming in over 100 years. Only satellite measurements are reliable and, as is to be expected, they show no warming since 1998. There is, however, long-term warming of about half a degree per century since the “Little Ice Age” but it can be expected to become about 500 years of long-term cooling before the end of this century if past natural cycles continue.

    However, regardless of any warming, carbon dioxide cannot be the cause as there is no valid physics that can give any reason for such. The infant science of climatology (in which there are few with qualifications in physics) has abused the laws of physics and ignored the prerequisites for such laws to apply.

    There first fundamental error was to assume that, in the absence of so-called “greenhouse gases” (1% water vapor, 0.04% carbon dioxide and some others) the Earth’s surface temperature would have been the same as that about 5Km up into the troposphere. This ignores the effect of gravity which (as has been discussed since the 19th century) forms a stable equilibrium non-zero temperature gradient in every planet’s troposphere. Now, in the 21st century, experiments with centrifuges and vortex cooling tubes demonstrate centrifugal force also creating a radial temperature gradient for the same reason that gravity does. Furthermore, a correct understanding of the process of entropy maximization in physics enables us to explain why this happens as gravity acts on molecules between collisions. So there is no need to explain the warmer surface temperature with radiation, and radiation is not the cause thereof.

    The second fundamental error is that, in their unnecessary attempts to explain the fact that the surface temperature is warmer than that 5Km above, climatologists have incorrectly assumed that they can just add together the flux of radiation from the Sun and about double that flux from the colder atmosphere. The latter can have no warming effect what-so-ever on the warmer surface, whilst even the solar radiation does not always raise the existing surface temperature, especially in winter and in the early morning and late afternoon. Once again, we can confirm that radiation cannot be compounded like that with a simple experiment. We can measure the temperature to which a single electric bar radiator will raise an object and then see if several such radiators achieve the results that climatologists would like to see. They don’t come anywhere near doing so.

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