the Air Vent

Because the world needs another opinion

Michigan Lock-down Data

Posted by Jeff Id on May 4, 2020

In Michigan we’ve suffered some of the most stringent lock-down requirements of any state.   We have never quarantined healthy people in history as there is no medical data to support that. We’ve been blocked from buying garden implements, visiting empty vacation homes, not allowed to use motorboats but allowed to use kayaks?  Lots of stupid draconian nonsense because our governor is running for VP.  I would propose that it may be worse to hide indoors than to quarantine the sick and continue on with life.  Our quarantine started 3/21 and you can see the trends below.

In addition, I’ve spent a lot of time collecting information on COVID this weekend and found some interesting trends.  My work is incomplete so it will have to wait a little longer to fully present, however the stats below stood out well enough to present.

We have achieved the following records across 50 states:

#1 in deaths per case diagnosed
#2 in deaths per population density
#3 in deaths overall
#7 in cases per population

I think this indicates that grouping people together while sending one out every once in a while for food didn’t work very well.

15 Responses to “Michigan Lock-down Data”

  1. Gary said

    When does government not make things worse?

  2. Jeff Id said

    Check out this crazy headline from the left


  3. Tom in St. Johns said

    I work in a lightly infected county in mid-Mi and people are taking this seriously. The country folk who come into town are the most likely to be wearing masks. They are not afraid, just taking precautions.

    I agree that the state’s policy on what opens and what doesn’t is arbitrary and lacks thought. I am a high risk individual but I still live my life as normally as possible which is easy because I do get to go into work each day.

    • Jeff Id said

      We’re maybe an hours drive apart Tom. At work we are cautious but as time as passed, most of our folks relaxed. They refuse to wear masks but stay spaced out though and many are home on doctors notes for risk. Wife won’t wear a mask and I haven’t either. Hopefully it works out for us but when you are constantly around people, it is difficult to have fear of this bug. Also, hcq zpack seems to work. As you know, I’m a bit of a rebel.

      There is an article on WUWT which links lung infections to vitamin D3. I look at the curve on the post after this one and it is heavily weighted in the Michigan latitude. It is too sharp a curve to be related only to sunlight or temp, it seems somehow behavioral to me. Even if I eliminate NewYork, we are getting infected more in the cold weather. Not building up your vitamin D3 by staying inside too much may be the factor. It also may be sunlight killing the virus so it’s less easy to transmit. Either way, the beach is the cure!!!

      Not in my personality to stay down long.

  4. RB said

    That graph, for America at least, is not going to tell you yet whether the lockdown is working. You have to plot the slope of that curve (deaths/day) and see whether it flattened out with a ~21-day lag after March 21.

  5. RB said

    You plotted cumulative deaths. You need to plot deaths/day as here showing that deaths/day flattened out around April 13. If you think cumulative deaths going up shows lockdown is not working, you have probably misunderstood how disease spread works. Check out James Annan’s work. Smoothed deaths per day are flattish for UK and fit an R0 <1 compared to an R0~3 at start which is the point of lockdown policies succeeding. Your governor is saving lives with it.

    • Jeff Id said

      I did a lag 1 derivative when I made this graph. I just didn’t show it to you because it’s not exciting. Same deaths per day once the virus infections were set in – as your graph shows. I don’t agree with your interpretation of that graph whatsoever. You don’t have any comparison for where we would be with garden supplies vs without or locked down vs without. It is an emotion based argument you make. E.g. 66% of recent new cases in NewYork were from locked down folks.

    • Jeff Id said

      and the other thing which pisses me off about this whole situation. We’ve been open for business every single day, and every PPE measure the governor recommended I personally put in place weeks to months before she even thought of it. No confirmed cases so far – thank god but not bad for 130 ish people.

    • Jeff Id said

      I’m also reading my 77th executive order in 50 days. Completely draconian stupidity that keeps changing but saying the same thing. I’m considering non-compliance with some of this because it’s nonsense.

  6. RB said

    What emotion based argument? The deaths/ day flat from April 13 is there for all to see. I think you should spend some time familiarizing yourself with an SEIR model.

    • Jeff Id said

      The argument that the situation changed due to lockdown. You don’t know what would have happened otherwise so you cannot logically claim this is better.

      I think we are much safer at work than we are quarantined at home where your surfaces aren’t cleaned 8 times per day with bleach and you are not required to wear a mask. I think allowing people to use beaches is healthier than leaving them indoors due to the fact that sunlight kills the virus in a couple of minutes. I think you may have increased lung infections due to increased vitamin D deficiency from being locked indoors. I’m sure we will have more deaths due to untreated medical conditions because hospitals are closed. My guess is that we actually have more infections in society than we would have had without, unlike you, I admit that I cannot prove it. Herd immunity is obviously what is saving the rest of NewYork. Clearly population density impacts the disease communicability, that is an argument in favor of separating people but not boxing them up and hoping the big bad bug doesn’t come in the box. It didn’t save them one bit that I can see. I have no idea how it makes sense to expect a virus to stay outdoors when you are required to occasionally leave for supplies or have them brought to you. That’s a serious quarantine breach every time and then when you’re sick, the whole group of people in such close proximity gets sick.

      The rules were implemented before we had hardly any cases so there is no SEIR shape this graph could take which would disprove your conclusion so your conclusion must therefore be based on something else.

  7. RB said

    Herd immunity for an R0 of 3 is achieved at 66% prevalence. There is an emotional argument being made, but it’s not by me.

    • Jeff Id said

      So that’s interesting. It’s pretty clear that most of NewYork has achieved less than 1 new infection per new patient. Seems data driven.

      the 66% is an interesting idea. In immunology, you are often conferred immunization by similar but not the same disease and sometimes even genetic characteristics. Some people just aren’t predisposed to get some diseases. So with a 66% happy number, are you saying you believe 66% of new york must have immunity or do you accept that some may already have it from other modes?

    • Jeff Id said

      Your reply is a non-sequitur BTW, but I’m perfectly happy moving on.

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