the Air Vent

Because the world needs another opinion

They REALLY Want It.

Posted by Jeff Id on July 1, 2020

New study on Antarctica makes all kinds of claims of global doom.  The newspapers are all out there saying the Antarctic is melting.  It feels like Steig 2.0.  It’s also in Nature — yet again.

From WUWT

 

So Amundsen Scott was dead flat back in 2009- which is what triggered the Antarctic blog wars.  Looking at the data it’s quite a jump in recent years.  —  My first thought was that it looks a lot like hockey stick blended data.  The abstract reads like a political add for global doom.

Over the last three decades, the South Pole has experienced a record-high statistically significant warming of 0.61 ± 0.34 °C per decade, more than three times the global average. Here, we use an ensemble of climate model experiments to show this recent warming lies within the upper bounds of the simulated range of natural variability. The warming resulted from a strong cyclonic anomaly in the Weddell Sea caused by increasing sea surface temperatures in the western tropical Pacific. This circulation, coupled with a positive polarity of the Southern Annular Mode, advected warm and moist air from the South Atlantic into the Antarctic interior. These results underscore the intimate linkage of interior Antarctic climate to tropical variability. Further, this study shows that atmospheric internal variability can induce extreme regional climate change over the Antarctic interior, which has masked any anthropogenic warming signal there during the twenty-first century.

We know the first sentence is a flat out lie. Trends have been stubbornly flat and they DON’T fit model predictions.   This is a huge bone of contention because without the Antarctic warming, the climate models are junk.  So I went straight to the temperature data.   My climate software is pretty old and working with it is a bit clunky so I went to RIMFROST, which posts raw temperature data from different stations.  In the actual thermometer data, there is a lack of significant upturn even to 2019 and is visually inconsistent with the new fake-doom article.  The south pole will not be melting soon folks – cause it is very very cold.   If someone has access to this wonderful article, I would love to read the magic even though I will likely be dumber for it.  I’m guessing special filtering makes the 2018 data point shoot right up even over 2013 like that.  Looking at the other end of the series 1957 exhibits the same departure from reality. We have seen that same mathmagic before, whereas in the thermometer data 2018 is below 2013. Without seeing the paper it’s only guessing on my part but the end point jumping that differently is a huge clue.   Magnitudes through the rest of the series are very similar.

Looking closely, they amazingly found a nearly 1C jump in 2018 compared to the 0.5C per the actual thermometer.  Of course that is the strongest point on a linear least squares trend.  Due to the oddness of the differences and past experience with alarmists, I would further ‘guess’ that the whole trend loses statistical significance when things are properly adjusted.

 


3 Responses to “They REALLY Want It.”

  1. Good to see the old fire back in your posts! Unfortunately I cannot help you with the access.

    • Jeff id said

      Thx. Really think this is an over-happy filter issue. Might have to phone a friend or pay the money.

      They did post the software so I could go that way. Looks like retraction material to me.

  2. chaamjamal said

    A 15-year warming trend is too brief and the selection of the Antarctic Peninsula is too small a geographical extent for these events to have an AGW explanation.

    First, the extreme geothermal activity in West Antarctica

    https://tambonthongchai.com/2019/06/27/antarctica/

    and Second, internal climate variability limits the interpretation of such events in terms of AGW

    https://tambonthongchai.com/2020/07/16/the-internal-variability-issue/

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