the Air Vent

Because the world needs another opinion

More ‘no evidence’ to Ponder #2

Posted by Jeff Id on November 28, 2020

While every single media outlet prefaces any claim of vote fraud, they use the words unsubstantiated or without evidence or any other strongly worded claim trying to TRICK you into believing there is, in fact, no evidence of wide scale vote fraud. Nothing could be further from the truth. In my last post, I was able to identify battleground states, not by the huge number of votes cast but by being the states with the hardest pro-Biden votes in the entire country.

Michigan beat out California and Washington DC, as did Wisconsin and Georgia. These votes as registered are so far out of whack that they are a statistical impossibility.

Reader Amac78 left a link to a brand new website conceived of apparently over this exact same issue. This article has come to the same conclusions as I have and they have done a much better job communicating it than I have. If you even remotely care about fair elections, you will be shocked.


Anomalies in Vote Counts and Their Effects on Election 2020

In particular, we are able to quantify the extent of compliance with this property and discover that, of the 8,954 vote updates used in the analysis, these four decisive updates were the 1st, 2nd, 4th, and 7th most anomalous updates in the entire data set. Not only does each of these vote updates not follow the generally observed pattern, but the anomalous behavior of these updates is particularly extreme. That is, these vote updates are outliers of the outliers.

The four vote updates in question are: 

  1. An update in Michigan listed as of 6:31AM Eastern Time on November 4th, 2020, which shows 141,258 votes for Joe Biden and 5,968 votes for Donald Trump
  2. An update in Wisconsin listed as 3:42AM Central Time on November 4th, 2020, which shows 143,379 votes for Joe Biden and 25,163 votes for Donald Trump
  3. A vote update in Georgia listed at 1:34AM Eastern Time on November 4th, 2020, which shows 136,155 votes for Joe Biden and 29,115 votes for Donald Trump
  4. An update in Michigan listed as of 3:50AM Eastern Time on November 4th, 2020, which shows 54,497 votes for Joe Biden and 4,718 votes for Donald Trump

11 Responses to “More ‘no evidence’ to Ponder #2”

  1. amac78 said

    I’ve been writing about links related to anomalies 1 (Michigan) and 2 (Wisconsin) in the comments thread over there.

    Anomaly 1 appears to be the City of Detroit reporting most of its absentee ballots to the Michigan elections office (speculation – not confirmed)

    Anomaly 1 is 141,258 Biden / 5,968 Trump / 2,546 Other thus 94.3% / 4.0% / 1.7%

    Detroit City Absentee is 166,203 Biden / 6,153 Trump / 1,081 Other thus 95.8% / 3.5% / 0.6%

    Because of the limited precision in how Edison Research reports its results, small numbers are not very accurate.

    Anomaly 2 appears to be Milwaukee County reporting most of its absentee ballots to the Wisconsin election office (some evidence for this). Trump’s percentage is low but not outside the range of plausibility.

    Two commenters linked to sites they set up to pull data from the NYT website, so you can draw your own graphs for any state.

    Steve’s page for time series graphs
    Mario Delgado’s page for anomaly graphs

    Pretty cool!

    • Jeff Id said

      I don’t know what you mean by anomaly 2 but personally I believe that number is way outside of the range of plausibility. Using a log/log plot, I got 0.15% or about 1 in 640 times likelihood of being part of Wisconsin’s vote range group. It is also the single largest vote.

      The problem with my Wisconsin likelihood is that the distribution of early data contains anomalous votes as well creating an asymmetric tail for Biden. Basically, the percentage would probably be much lower if we were able to cleanly sort absentee ballots from in person.

      Finally, I believe it was from Dane county rather than Milwaukee but that is based on the huge difference in gained votes for Biden. Despite being smaller, Dane gained more
      Biden votes than Milwaukee.

  2. Matthew W said

    Those dumps alone are not the evidence of fraud, but the fact that the media and the democrats (redundancy noted) won’t talk about it says plenty

    • Jeff Id said

      Matt,

      We don’t disagree often, why are they not evidence of fraud? They are millions to 1 outside of any normal range of voting, they at least make ‘evidence’ level.

      • Matthew W said

        We don’t disagree on this. I completely think the Democrats fraudulently stuffed the boxes. It should absolutely be investigated and have it explained.

        • Based on what I’ve researched about the Dominion Voting System and what went on in Michigan, Georgia etc, My working theory is that:

          1. They had lots of pre-prepared vote in/absentee ballots waiting in a warehouse somewhere (Michigan) or under tables in the counting center (Georgia).

          2. Once they knew how far Trump was ahead, at the appointed time they stopped the counting and got as many witnesses as possible to go home (dem. and rep.)

          3. Then depending on the which State either, people external to the counting center gained access to the count server within the center and altered the backend MS SQL server database ensuring that the changes made to it (they could easily have stopped the server and replaced the main database file with a prepared replacement file containing extra records and re-started the database) would be consistent with the ballots they were about to stuff into the tabulators). This is perhaps why they needed to stop the count to make the database change and to then carry out as much ballot stuffing as needed (see later). Alternatively they could have brought a removal storage device with the replacement database file on it into the ’empty’ center.

          4. After the database had been updated and started again they set about scanning as many of the pre-prepared ballots that they could inorder to ensure that there were scanned ballot images on the Dominion tabulator. They made sure they did not update the database with any of these ‘scan records’ as these were already part of the replacement database.

          5. When ready they updated the ‘reporting’ which appears to be an export of the database records in some format (CSV, Excel, JSON etc) which they then fed onto the Edison Research input stream which was feeding the ‘live news’ feeds like NYT etc.

          This way they could ensure that the number of scanned images of the ballots on the tabulator matched the number of ‘voting’ records in the database thereby covering most of their tracks. One of the problems they had was that they did not know how many vote-in/absentee ballots Trump might have over the next few days while they counted them so perhaps that’s why some of the poll workers were changing Trump votes into Biden and vice versa in order to keep the ‘ballot adjustment’ within a given tolerance.

  3. Based on what I’ve researched about the Dominion Voting System and what went on in Michigan, Georgia etc, My working theory is that:

    1. They had lots of pre-prepared vote in/absentee ballots waiting in a warehouse somewhere (Michigan) or under tables in the counting center (Georgia).

    2. Once they knew how far Trump was ahead, at the appointed time they stopped the counting and got as many witnesses as possible to go home (dem. and rep.)

    3. Then depending on the which State either, people external to the counting center gained access to the count server within the center and altered the backend MS SQL server database ensuring that the changes made to it (they could easily have stopped the server and replaced the main database file with a prepared replacement file containing extra records and re-started the database) would be consistent with the ballots they were about to stuff into the tabulators). This is perhaps why they needed to stop the count to make the database change and to then carry out as much ballot stuffing as needed (see later). Alternatively they could have brought a removal storage device with the replacement database file on it into the ’empty’ center.

    4. After the database had been updated and started again they set about scanning as many of the pre-prepared ballots that they could inorder to ensure that there were scanned ballot images on the Dominion tabulator. They made sure they did not update the database with any of these ‘scan records’ as these were already part of the replacement database.

    5. When ready they updated the ‘reporting’ which appears to be an export of the database records in some format (CSV, Excel, JSON etc) which they then fed onto the Edison Research input stream which was feeding the ‘live news’ feeds like NYT etc.

    This way they could ensure that the number of scanned images of the ballots on the tabulator matched the number of ‘voting’ records in the database thereby covering most of their tracks. One of the problems they had was that they did not know how many vote-in/absentee ballots Trump might have over the next few days while they counted them so perhaps that’s why some of the poll workers were changing Trump votes into Biden and vice versa in order to keep the ‘ballot adjustment’ within a given tolerance.

  4. Test

  5. Looks like I’ve been spam filtered JeffID. Could you release my comment and let me know what you think

  6. Just been looking at Steve’s page charts. I don’t like it when someone who charts non-continuous data draws lines (often curved) between the points. I much prefer just to see a symbol plotted at the x,y coordinate. Don’t like date labels (UTC or not) used on the x-axis. Use days elapsed from a defined and labelled start date. That way you see all the ‘gaps’ in the data.

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